Germany is facing an unprecedented energy crisis | Kyo Brewery

The end of the Nord Stream gas pipeline in the northern German city of Lubming. Photo: Xinhua News Agency

The continent is reportedly mired in an energy crisis, and Germany is still preparing to shut down almost half of its nuclear power capacity by the end of this year, which will undoubtedly put further pressure on the European power grid.

Lack of electricity and lack of warmth in winter

Germany belongs to the climate of the transition from the western Ocean to the mainland, and the winters are cold and humid, and the heating pressure is very high. Not only that, as the largest manufacturing country in the European Union, Germany has a huge steel, aluminum, cement, chemical and other high-energy-consuming industries, these energy-intensive enterprises are related to the employment of thousands of Germans, but also related to Germany's economic prosperity, people's livelihood and social stability. Due to the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, the winter in Germany in 2021 is particularly "cold", and energy security has naturally become unusually important.

In this exceptionally "cold" winter, Germany had an energy crisis unprecedented since World War II. On the eve of the Christmas holiday, electricity prices in Germany soared to 431 euros per megawatt. At the same time, Germany's energy consumption has rebounded due to household electricity, heating and other daily necessities.

In the face of energy shortages and soaring electricity prices, the usual response is to put energy strategic reserves into the market, and Germany's most important power supply and heating energy source is natural gas, which means that the German government should release natural gas strategic reserves as soon as possible.

However, this is almost impossible. By the start of the last 10 days of December, Germany's strategic gas storage capacity ratio had fallen to an unprecedented low of 57 percent. This is better than some neighbors such as the Netherlands (41%) Austria (37%), but such a gas storage capacity ratio is dangerous for Germany, a populous and manufacturing country.

Usually, such a low value will occur in late January as companies start construction. The December production trough means that the energy crisis will worsen once the start of operations rebounds.

Damn, filling these energy gaps is also out of reach. France, the EU's most energy-rich neighbor, has temporarily shut down and overhauled two nuclear power plants in response to the 2022 elections to meet its "green energy standards" (nuclear power accounts for no more than 50%). This has a limited impact on France's power supply and heating, but it cuts off the way out of Germany's "cross-border borrowing".

Germany relies heavily on Russia for gas supplies, but its bet on the Nord Stream-2 project has an uncertain future. Coupled with the crisis in Ukraine, other gas suppliers and ubiquitous financial levers have taken advantage of the fire, making LNG in the international market a strange commodity.

All of this is enough to give the newly elected Prime Minister Scholz and the coalition government under his leadership a headache. Even if it barely survives the difficulties of the past few years, after the festival, it has to fall into the dilemma of "ensuring domestic electricity consumption or industrial production". In fact, Germany's industrial blackouts have begun, and the electricity used for daily life and heating is also hanging high, and it is in danger.

Emission reduction measures have made the situation even more grim

It all comes from nowhere. At the critical moment of the energy crisis, Germany announced the closure of three of its six nuclear power plants, which means that Germany will reduce its reliable energy production capacity by 4 GW (1 GW = 1 billion watts = 1000 MW = 1 million kilowatts). Ten years ago, Germany had 17 nuclear power plants, and its nuclear power research and development and production capacity were second only to France in the European Union.

That's not even the whole story of "controversial decision-making." The German government has clearly announced that it will close all three remaining nuclear power plants by the end of 2022, thus achieving zero nuclear power.

It all stems from the "green energy" alternative plan launched by the Merkel administration: a 16 percent reduction in coal power generation by 2024, a phase-out of coal power in 2038, and a phase-out of nuclear power in 2050. The left-wing coalition government, which has just come to power, has increased this "green strategy" under the impetus of the Green Party, which is known for its "radical environmentalism", that is, to eliminate nuclear energy in 2022, ban any fuel-fired heating system in new residential buildings in 2026, and eliminate coal power in 2030.

Merkel originally did not approve of the abolition of nuclear power, hoping that Germany, like France, would list nuclear power as the main variety of "green carbon-free energy". She hopes that several newer nuclear power plants will "stand on the last shift" and buy valuable time for the maturity of "green energy", and then try to promote the construction of the Nord Stream-2 pipeline and introduce imported natural gas for "hedging".

All this changed after the left-wing coalition government came to power. The new government not only ended coal power and nuclear power early, but even began to reduce the use of natural gas. According to the new government's plan, Germany should completely "ban" natural gas by 2040 and achieve "complete energy greening". The new government aims to reduce Germany's carbon emissions by 65 percent and increase the share of "renewables" to 80 percent by 2030. A total of 40 GW of nuclear and coal power will be "forcibly phased out" and replaced by wind and solar.

This means that the Scholz government will install 30 wind turbine generators per week over the next 10 years (the rate in 2021 is only 8 per week), while adding 15 GW of solar PV capacity per year, compared with only 5.8 GW in Germany so far in 2021. This has made many environmentalists feel that the pace is too hasty and too large.

The unusually cold winter of 2021 is bound to lead to a continued increase in energy demand. In the same period, the price of the energy market skyrocketed, which undoubtedly exacerbated the "lethality" of the German energy crisis. In this context, the "feat" of emissions reduction by the German left-wing coalition government is undoubtedly adding fuel to the fire.

Beijing News special writer | Tao Short Room (Columnist)

Edit | Chi Daohua

Intern | Wei Yingzi

Proofreading | Dangerous