The new crown epidemic swept the league like a storm, Beijing time on the morning of December 17, statistics from ESPN showed that 63 players and two coaches have triggered health and safety agreements, and this is just the beginning, and then 5 players have entered the quarantine state, and the total number of trigger agreements (players + coaches) has reached 70.
As early as a week ago, the number of NBA triggers for health and safety agreements has been the same as last season, and this week the situation has intensified, with 13 players triggered on Tuesday local time, setting a new single-day high for the season, and the previous record was triggered by 4 players in a single day. Predictably, the 13-person trigger in a single day is most likely not the cap.
The regular season has only played about 30 games, the epidemic has developed in such a rapid situation, what is the next thing for the NBA, will they once again take the way of closing the park to continue the season?
Why did the outbreak suddenly worsen?
The sudden increase in the NBA epidemic is a manifestation of the worsening of the epidemic in the United States, with objective factors and subjective reasons.
There are seasonal conditions for the development of the epidemic, and winter usually brings about a rise in the epidemic, and the accelerated spread of the Delta and Omikeron strains has further caused a surge in cases.
Winter and virus mutation strains, so that the vaccine defense declines, in the NBA for example, 97% of the players were vaccinated, but tracking monitoring shows that over time, some vaccinated players in vivo antibodies showed a downward trend, research institutions for the league to provide information that vaccine injection 2-6 months later, the player's body antibodies have been difficult to produce the ideal defense effect on a new round of virus attack, resulting in an increase in the risk of infection.
The rebound of the epidemic is a common problem faced by all countries, but the United States is particularly serious. As of December 17, Beijing time, the cumulative number of confirmed covid-19 cases in the United States exceeded 50 million, and the cumulative number of deaths exceeded 800,000, both of which are the first in the world. In the past 24 hours, the number of new confirmed cases in the United States has 134354, and 1257 new deaths have been confirmed.
There is a serious division in the United States' treatment of the fight against the epidemic, with parties pulling each other up, federal and state governments dragging their feet, and so far it has not been able to form a unified anti-epidemic plan. US President Joe Biden introduced a mandatory vaccination decree in September, which not only met with Republican resistance, but also a large number of opposition voices within the Democratic Party, and the decree could only be stopped.
The politicization of the epidemic and the issue of profit have strongly hindered the progress of the United States' fight against the epidemic, and the plans formulated by relevant experts have either been delayed or cancelled, and it is difficult to implement them perfectly. To date, nearly 40 percent of the U.S. population has not been fully vaccinated, demonstrating on the one hand the polarization of vaccines in the United States and the distrust of the U.S. public in the government on the other.
The United States lacks the necessary sense of urgency in dealing with the epidemic, and the slightest relief is slackened. September and October were the easing period of the epidemic in the United States, so the states relaxed their vigilance, and the previous epidemic prevention measures were either greatly reduced or simply canceled, and they were caught off guard by the rebound of the epidemic.
The situation of the NBA is a portrayal of the current situation of epidemic prevention and control in the United States, the NBA in the 2019-20 season because of the epidemic has been stopped, and then in Orlando to create a closed park to complete the rematch, that period took extremely strict epidemic prevention measures, into the park of the team personnel and media workers to test every day, the relevant personnel wear alarms and epidemic prevention wristbands, the former is used to remind to maintain a safe distance, the latter is used to record the blood oxygen test and body temperature every morning, the relevant data will be entered into the APP developed by the NBA, When entering the venue, you need to scan it to enter the venue.
The rematch park stipulates that masks must be worn in other situations except in personal rooms or meals (not worn during player training and matches). Relevant personnel must be active in designated areas, and security personnel wearing masks and protective masks can be seen everywhere for inspection. The League may, depending on the seriousness of any violation, impose a warning, fine, suspension or eviction from the park. Kings player Holmes crossed the NBA's camp boundaries for receiving takeaways and accepted a 10-day quarantine penalty, accompanied by stricter virus testing.
The NBA's ability to complete the rematch with a zero-positive result of the new crown is inseparable from their epidemic prevention measures.
In the 2020-21 season, the NBA did not continue to use the way of closing the park, but it still maintained a high intensity in epidemic prevention, training and game days must be tested, taking the training day as an example, the player enters the stadium before testing, and then waiting for half to an hour, the inspection results are no problem before entering the museum for training. In addition to daily testing, the NBA has restricted players' off-court activities.
As the epidemic eased in the United States in September and October, the NBA also breathed a sigh of relief and began to reduce the intensity of epidemic prevention, especially after the players were vaccinated, the league's attitude towards the fight against the epidemic was somewhat blindly optimistic.
'The number of infections in our players has dropped significantly, there aren't many places in the world that can be tested as frequently as we do, and we know the data, so we're optimistic." After 70 percent of NBA players were vaccinated, league president Xiao Hua said.
With 97 percent of players vaccinated, the NBA has further relaxed testing efforts, and fully vaccinated players do not have to be tested by the league if no symptoms appear. This change is not only a loosening of the league's attitude, but also pressure from the players' union, the previous two consecutive seasons of high-intensity epidemic prevention measures on and off the field have made the players very tired, the labor and management sides compromised with each other, most of the players were vaccinated, and the league relaxed the epidemic prevention measures for the vaccinators.
When this compromise emerged, some team executives and team doctors expressed concern, but they also knew that in the context of the easing of the epidemic in the United States, it was difficult to continue to strictly require players in epidemic prevention. "The league suspended some of its previous epidemic regulations this season and did not test vaccinated players, and we were worried that this could give the virus an opportunity to spread," said a general manager from the Western Conference, "but we also understand that in a universally vaccinated league, it is difficult to get support for continuing the previous testing density." ”
What's next?
Subjective and objective factors have led to the continuous deterioration of the epidemic in the United States, and have been intuitively reflected in the sports world, the NFL (rugby league) only on Monday and Tuesday, more than 70 players tested positive for the new crown, the situation in the NBA is not optimistic at all, the number of people triggering health and safety protocols in the past two weeks has surged, players have been absent from the game due to isolation has been more than 200 games, these data are still improving, and there have been cases of Omi Kerong.
This is the case, what's next?
The NBA has begun negotiations with the players' union to test all players on training and game days, no longer limited to unvaccinated groups. Against the backdrop of an increase in the pandemic, the players' union is expected to accept the league's demands.
"Now that we've all seen the spread of the pandemic, we believe more and more frequent testing is needed," said Michelle Roberts, executive director of the players' union.
The NBA is in the process of revising its epidemic prevention agreement with the players' union, and in addition to daily testing, there is also the issue of vaccination reinforcement needles. It is reported that 60% of the players have been injected with reinforcement needles, and the league optimistically estimates that this number is expected to reach more than 90%.
The league can't force players and team staff to vaccinate, and the same is true for booster shots, but it can supervise measures. Starting from December 17, local time, players who have not been vaccinated with booster needles may face more frequent testing, and team staff cannot interact with players without strengthening injections, nor can they travel with the team.
Because triggering the agreement will lead to player isolation, directly causing a shortage of staff on the team, team executives and team doctors have recently discussed the question of whether asymptomatic cases do not have to be isolated, but the league is still cautious about this, because asymptomatic positive people may still spread the virus, and the NBA is still committed to following the guidance of the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and medical experts working with the league to deal with epidemic prevention.
Will it return to the "bubble"?
After the 2019-20 season was suspended due to the epidemic, the NBA restarted the season at Disney World in Orlando, when the league created a rematch camp known as "bubble", which represents isolation from the outside world and the greatest effort to avoid the interference of the epidemic.
As the coalition pandemic worsens, especially as Christmas approaches, gatherings of friends and family could bring a new wave of triggering health and safety agreements. The alliance was expected at thanksgiving, and after the holiday, all the staff tested, and the results were really unpredictable.
If the epidemic continues, will the NBA consider recreating "bubbles" to avoid a shutdown?
For now, the alliance will not do so unless it is a last resort.
The cost of creating a "bubble" is considerable, and the essence is to charter the stadium and hotel, and no outsiders are allowed to enter. The NBA's camp in Orlando costs $1.5 million a day, and the entire rematch costs 180 million, and although the league is rich, this hundred million dollars must also be carefully spent.
Cost is not the main problem, the league in the 2019-20 season due to the epidemic caused fans to not be able to show up, ticket losses of up to $800 million, which does not include other game day fan spending.
According to data released by the NBA, 40% of the league's revenue is directly related to fans' game day spending, including tickets and purchases, etc., which can only be fully realized if fans are present to watch the game. The NBA partially resumed fans to watch the game in the 2020-21 season, and the 2021-22 season has basically recovered as before, even if the epidemic re-emerges, only the Raptors are currently limited to the number of fans because of canada's local epidemic prevention regulations.
The NBA currently has games postponed due to the epidemic, the league is communicating with the team about possible game postponements, more frequent testing and related measures to strengthen the needle are also planned, and are expected to be fully implemented soon, but there is no sign that the NBA will reduce the number of fans of the U.S. homegrown team to enter the game, or take a no-live audience approach to the game, although this can reduce the risk of virus transmission, but the economic loss is large. Sources said that the NBA's preset revenue target for this season is $10 billion, and if the "bubble" model is adopted, it will be difficult to achieve this revenue target without allowing fans to be present.
However, recreating the "bubble" is by no means completely impossible, once the epidemic in the United States develops to a more serious state and spreads to the NBA, the league will consider the park model to ensure that the season can continue, because there are interests in broadcast fees.
The NBA's revenue composition has two core parts, broadcast fees and fan spending. If the epidemic worsens to the point where fans can't show up, it's out of the NBA's control, and they need to try to ensure that there are no big losses in broadcasting. The NBA's rematch in Orlando, despite its high cost and no ticket revenue, retained the broadcast revenue for that time slot, about $1.5 billion.
The NBA's broadcast contracts with ESPN and TNT are priced at a total of $24 billion for nine years, expire at the end of the 2024-25 season, and are usually renewed two to three years in advance. It has been reported that the NBA's goal in this broadcast negotiation is $75 billion in 9 years.
This big cake of income, the NBA wants to eat it, it must protect the interests of broadcasters, so if the epidemic really develops to the point where fans can't enter the field, the stadium will be closed, the NBA is likely to restart the "bubble", at least to protect the income of the broadcast, the loss will be minimized. Professional sports, in business talk business.
As a digression, if you walk into the "bubble" again, Lakers fans can look forward to it, after all, this team has a "bubble god".