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Source: WeChat public account "Daoda number" (WeChat public number ID: daoda1997)
Today, the National Bureau of Statistics announced the state of economic operation in November.
With aggregate data under pressure, real estate breakdowns are improving. The rapid growth of housing completion area is the result of the policy bottom thinking, the idea of ensuring delivery and ensuring people's livelihood, and it can also be seen that the marginal relaxation of supervision of the real estate industry has achieved initial results, which can also be seen from the personal mortgage data released by the central bank in November.
Today's A-share real estate sector performed well, and after the data was released, real estate stocks continued to rise, indicating that the market is recognized for such data performance.
In the case of pressure on the total data, the focus of the market game naturally returns to policy expectations, and anyway, the funds are betting on the possible direction according to the expression of "moderately advanced infrastructure investment" at the meeting.
Dage feels that for the old infrastructure, the current can only be regarded as an oversold rebound, the sustainability is doubtful, the main performance is the new infrastructure, the new infrastructure increment is greater, but in the direction of subdivision, it is more, including the urban rail transit of the new infrastructure of transportation, unmanned driving, etc., the wind and solar storage of the new energy infrastructure, charging piles, UHV, etc., the smart city of the intelligent new infrastructure, 5G communications, big data, network security and other directions.
From the current point of view, new energy infrastructure performance is better. After successive small steps, the power sector hit a recent high today, which is worthy of expectations.
As early as the beginning of this round of market launch, Dage took the power sector as the first choice, both the guidance of the "14th Five-Year Plan" and the support of this central economic work conference, and it seems to be a bit boastful to say more. If there is no layout friend in advance, you can only wait for the opportunity to adjust.
Screenshot of the December 5 article
The broader market index closed lower, and the biggest impact was on the pharmaceutical sector. First the new stock BeiGene, which is listed today, broke, and then wuXi AppTec, the leader of the tail-end pharmaceutical stock, fell to a halt.
Even with the blessing of Hillhouse, BeiGene is still inevitably doomed to break, and after the A-share listing, it has become one of the few listed companies in the three places: US stocks, A shares, and Hong Kong stocks. So, how much does it cost in three markets?
U.S. stocks are $26 billion, equivalent to 160 billion yuan. Hong Kong stocks fell today before they were 230 billion Hong Kong dollars, or about 180 billion yuan. The market capitalization of A shares is RMB256 billion.
Hong Kong stocks and U.S. stocks, are continuous trading of the secondary market, we match the price of the transaction in the market value of about 160 billion - 180 billion, to A shares directly priced at 256 billion, 40% more expensive than Hong Kong stocks, you say this break accident?
The pricing of the three places, the value of the company has been very clear, and the listing price here is too high, which is obviously not popular. The most important thing is that the total market value is as high as 200 billion, and the floating funds that originally like speculation have silently run away.
Seeing this, in fact, we should understand that the current new stock subscription of A shares has become more and more technical. If you do not seriously study BeiGene, if you lose money today because of the lottery, you still have to reflect on it, after all, BeiGene is broken, and the ending from the pricing has been guessed. BeiGene broke, and the estimation of holding the shares of Hemai in his hand trembled. High-priced, high-price-to-earnings stocks, subscription or caution.
Like BeiGene, the same "fallen man at the end of the world" is Also WuXi AppTec, which has collapsed the trillion track of CXO. In the Hong Kong stock market, WuXi Biologics plunged in the afternoon, and its stock price plummeted by more than 20%. All this is due to a bearish report from the peripheral market, which is an unprecedented huge impact for the believers in pharmaceutical stocks.
Many investors may be accustomed to similar bearish news, but from the perspective of market performance, funds are still very worried. Dage feels that the pharmaceutical industry is a typical long slope thick snow track, cattle stock concentration, although medicine has been speculated for many years, many stocks even if the "fracture" is not cheap, but 1.4 billion Chinese have to see a doctor to take medicine, survived this period of mud and sand, medicine is still worth paying attention to. Of course, the premise is that the valuation of the purchase is reasonable.
In the long run, is optimistic about chips and medicine, both of which are typical high-capital investment industries, and domestic substitution is still in the first middle stage. In other words, our own products can gradually replace imported products, serving 1.4 billion Chinese, which is a very large market, and it is only a matter of time before giant companies are born.
The Shanghai Composite Index shocked downward today, and the tail plate also jumped a wave of water, and the money-making effect was general, and many people may not be satisfied. However, compared with the performance of the peripheral market, coupled with the sudden bearish news of pharmaceutical stocks, A shares have such a performance, and the resilience is still good. The current performance of the index, as long as there is a plate effect every day, the volume is not too small, and there is no worry for the time being.
At present, the Shanghai Composite Index is likely to test the support near 3630 points, which was previously pressure, and after the breakthrough, it became support. If this position can be supported, the short-term low is likely to come out, this is the opportunity, as for the layout, has repeatedly emphasized it before.
In the mid-line strategy, the view of the upward trend of A-share shock remains unchanged for the time being. Since the market is fluctuating, it is necessary to improve the ability to operate, today the second season of the Minimalist Investment series of investment teaching courses has been launched, and has the honor to take a sneak peek, and the courses of this season are super close to actual combat. Interested friends, you can pay attention to the WeChat public account "Daoda" to understand.
(Zhang Daoda)
According to the latest regulations of the relevant state departments, this note does not involve any operational suggestions, and the risk of entering the market is at your own risk.
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