A-share trend analysis and forecast on Thursday (December 16).

Overnight, U.S. stocks fell sharply again. The NASDAQ plunged 1.14 percent. The ostensible reason stems from the Fed's expectations of interest rate hikes. In essence, it has always had a gap below that has not been filled. The specific location is at 14,589 points. The downward gravitational pull of this gap on it has always existed. Many people say that there is no law that the peripheral stock market must make up for every vacancy. Isn't this nonsense, and our stock market does not have the law of making up for every vacancy. The gap in the stock market is highly likely to be filled, not necessarily. Isn't investment behavior a game of probability? In domestic and foreign stock markets, the gaps are all highly likely to be filled. If you look closely, the vast majority of the gaps in the history of the US stock market will eventually be filled, and there are few cases of complete non-filling. Don't say it's the stock market, it's the trend of international gold prices, and where there is a gap in the daily chart, after the fact, the probability is also to be filled. This kind of defect filling behavior is actually highly in line with human aesthetic habits. At the same time, it is also in line with the knowledge of mathematics and physics, including geometry. For example, in daily life, if a building, some floor balconies are open and some floor balconies are closed, visually, it will give people a very chaotic and uncomfortable feeling. Even, the gap in these buildings will make people feel that the building itself is not strong, resulting in the impact of house prices. In turn, a building with all balconies closed will make people feel both beautiful and sturdy, shielding people from the wind and rain and enjoying the beautiful scenery. Gaps in the stock market, like occasionally closed balconies, affect trading sentiment. The rise and fall in the stock market, most of the time, is more of an emotional embodiment. A small gap theory, can give you such a detailed explanation, is not worth your attention?

The Shanghai Composite Index, which opened slightly lower this morning, then in the narrow strip between the upper and lower gaps, back and forth, oscillated slightly. It is not far from both upper and lower gaps, but there is no rush to choose the direction. I think the main force still wants to force retail investors to play cards first. And yesterday I said very clearly, once the retail investors here play the cards first, it is easy to fall into passivity. In case of short-term trapping, it will not hurt much but is extremely insulting, which will greatly affect the mentality and rhythm. If you don't get it right, the chaos on the short-term line will lead to the complete wrong rhythm and miss the opportunity before the start of the large-scale market. But one thing is clear, the market here, creating two gaps up and down, at least means that the pressure above is not large, and the support below is very strong. From this morning's movements, it can be seen that unless the market is rapidly pulling up on the short term, there is no large room for sustained decline here. No matter how the US stock market dives, we always ignore it, and even open it low, which fully proves what I said before, our stock market is completely running at its own pace at this time. The fundamental reason why the market can't fall here is at least three:

The first reason. Externally, although the Fed continues to release the threat of interest rate hikes, we have long publicly stated that we will not tighten liquidity due to US interest rate hikes. To put it bluntly, it is to focus on its own needs and adhere to the principle of combining advantages and dividing between those who are not profitable. The recent comprehensive reduction of the RRR is to use specific actions to make the clearest statement. This means that, from the financial level, the stock market is secure. This is also why, at present, many large off-field funds are actively and continuously pouring in, and there is a bit of a posture that cannot be stopped.

The second reason. Recently, the comprehensive registration system has been emphasized again, and it has stated that it will be implemented as soon as possible. This shows that the financing function of the capital market should be further strengthened. What does that mean? Quite simply, it is necessary to support the stock market at the policy level and become an important engine of the real economy. Therefore, the future is to be unprecedented, to promote the stock market to continue to go slow bull, not allowing the stock market to appear large systemic risks. To put it bluntly, the stock market is at the policy level, and it is guaranteed.

The third reason. From the perspective of the stock market itself, many white horses and weighted stocks at this time have changed. However, from the observation of the monthly chart, they are still oscillating in the bottom area and have not really formed a breakthrough. The Shanghai 50 Index and the Shanghai Composite Index, one, are at the bottom of the stage and ready to go; a sideways shock for nine months, with time for enough space, the momentum is also very sufficient. This makes the market have enough upward momentum in terms of running time and space. In my previous words, our stock market is completely in a different time and space compared with the US stock market. In the case of nasdaq, even if it does fill the gap downward in the short term, it will have to fall by six percent at its current position. And our stock market, at present, there is absolutely no room for six percent to fall, so there is no way to follow the decline. That's why, in recent times, no matter how often the US stock market in the periphery has fallen sharply, we just don't follow the reason. People have a thousand in their pockets, and it is normal to lose a hundred in business. You have fifty dollars in your pocket, can you follow up with a hundred? You only have the heart to grit your teeth and make money, and you are not qualified to lose money.

I have repeatedly stressed recently that if the market steps back, it will not fall deeply here. But near the 3,600 points above, it is necessary to repeatedly shake the whipsaw. Therefore, retail investors still have to endure in short-term operations. At three thousand four hundred and forty-eight o'clock, you must endure not to panic, and now you must endure not to be impulsive. The market is here, even if you rush up immediately, first make up the gap on the top, or even directly challenge this year's high, three thousand seven hundred and thirty-one. In the short line, there is a high probability of forming a temptation, and then it will also be smashed down. In that case, the decline will be larger. The same is to step back above three thousand six hundred points, there must be, more than a hundred points of downside space. The decline is not deep, but the decline is large, which will force many retail investors who are chasing high here to panic and cut meat again. Even if you endure not cutting the meat, you will be covered and miss the real low suction opportunity before the attack. Here, if you step back first, even if you have a bardo line, you will not fall below 3,600 points, and the amplitude and decline are very limited in comparison. So the last thing to fear here is to step back immediately. The most frightening thing is precisely to go up first and then step back. Moreover, at this time, immediately after stepping back, it will soon go up to fill the vacancy, the short-term line can eat meat immediately, and the middle line can also be expected to start the attack as soon as possible to save time. Here, first make up for the deficit and then step back, and then step back and then go up, and the time for the large-level attack is postponed. Therefore, retail investors should think about how to choose on the short line here. Choose according to your personal preferences.

The first option. Wait for the step back and then suck low, at least wait for the gap below to make up for it, and then start to increase the position in batches. It is possible to do so on the short line, and there will be a small wave of shorts, but the risk of being covered is completely absent. It is possible to make less money for the time being, but there is also no possibility of losing money in the short term.

The second option. Take a gamble now, and the market will fill the gap first. Then enter here, if you really go up first, you will decisively sell high to earn a wave, and then wait for the rebound to suck low, and successfully eat two waves of meat on the short line. The risk is that if the short-term rhythm is wrong, it will be temporarily covered, thus missing the real low-sucking opportunity before the attack.

I personally think that for most retail investors, it is better to be steady and steady. Therefore, I have been stressing in the past few days that there is no hurry, waiting for the market to step back down and then suck low. As of today's close, the Shanghai Composite Index has fallen to more than 3,640 points, not far from the gap below. So starting tomorrow, on the short term, everyone can be ready to suck low again. It is all a good thing to say in advance, if the market really comes down, back to the 3620 ~ 3640 range, then do not instigate. In fact, once you approach this range, you can start to pay attention to the low absorption opportunities of some weighted stocks. Today is also OK, do not have to be stuck, the index must reach a certain point. Because some weighted stocks, open their daily trend chart can be found that the basic correction has been in place. The low-suction interval given here is only a coordinate and reference. It is equivalent to an arrow target, so that everyone, when shooting arrows, has a general direction and target, does not require hitting the red heart, and shoots at the target.

I think that at this time, the market is already in the stage of oscillation after effectively breaking through 3,600 points. It will not directly attack it, and it will not continue to fall. The main force of big money is to complete the final momentum here. Therefore, in the short term, as long as you insist on the low suck when you step back, and do not chase high when you rise, there is nothing. In fact, it is easy to be covered by short-term chasing here, but it is only temporary and will not be deeply trapped. The impact of chasing the high quilt here, mainly in terms of mentality, is that it is easy to panic after stepping on the wrong rhythm, so as to fall before dawn. If you get stuck on the weight stocks and don't cut the meat, it won't be much of a deal. Although I emphasize that the short-term line is steady and steady, it will not deliberately scare people. I'm just saying that there's no need to gamble on the short term here, and the profit of winning the bet is limited. In case the gamble is lost, the mentality is not good, and it is bad to cut the meat in a hurry, and one step is wrong. Here, the gap above must also be filled, but the gap below is the opportunity to suck low. As long as the low suction opportunity is seized, it cannot be wrong, and there is no such thing as stepping on the wrong rhythm.

My prediction has always been clear that the Shanghai Composite Index is likely to close a yin line this week, but it is not afraid to close the yin line. Here is three thousand six hundred points as a platform, but also a shock. Therefore, after breaking through 3,700 points, there is a high probability of stepping back, and if you do not step back in place this week, you will step back sharply next week. So it's best to hurry back this week. Step back early, and stage the real attack drama early.

Normal low suction range: 3620~3640.

The limit of the low suction range: 3580 ~ 3600.

The latter may not be able to arrive, in case it arrives, it is a rare big opportunity, but it is impossible to find. I think even if the broader market moves back down, it will stop falling above 3,600 points. If you smash it this week, you will be bold to do it, and if you smash it next week, you will be bold when you smash it. Here rush up first, the short-term line only throws high and does not chase high, it is as simple as that.

I would like to stress once again that in the future, unless there is no market, if there is an index market, it is a weighted stock market. The full registration system is for indexes and weighted stocks. The continuous inflow of large funds outside the market can only hold the big white horse and the weight stock, otherwise it is not a slow bull but a mad cow. Mad cow, that's obviously not allowed. In the future, if you pull the weight, a slight pull on the Shanghai Composite Index can rise by hundreds of points. Pulling the small and medium caps, the index is not good, the individual stocks have risen out of control. At present, on the short line, it is also necessary to prevent the point of chasing the high quilt cover. In the middle line, you don't have to think about anything, just wait. This Friday is the delivery date for stock index futures. Therefore, if you step back and press the disk surface tomorrow, the probability will be upward on Friday, and the short market will be completely harvested. So that the Shanghai Composite Index, both to close out a weekly yin line, but also to harvest the short disk, think about the mouth to cover the happy can not. In fact, the short line is not much fun, three thousand seven hundred and thirty-one, and then it will definitely be broken, and my heart is only four thousand two hundred points.

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