Tesla, whose market value has been running wildly, has recently slammed the brakes.
The Fed FOMC meeting is approaching, investors are already very cautious, and the epidemic situation on the same day also broke a big bearish news, resulting in the three major US stock indexes closing down last night.
As the decline comes, most of the big tech stocks are also down. Tesla fell 4.98%, tesla lost $50.8 billion, about 323.2 billion yuan, the current market value of more than a trillion US dollars.
Tesla's recent decline has fallen by 22% at a higher point, as the leader of electric vehicles, the rise is full of flying, and the fall is not spared, so China's three major new car-making forces are also underperforming. Yesterday, the US stock Weilai fell nearly 2%, the Hong Kong stock Xiaopeng and the ideal fell more than 3%, and the A-share Ningde era also fell today.
In the face of Tesla's stock price and market value falling sharply, it is estimated that many people want to ask Tesla what is going on? When will there be a chance?
Reproduce the technical bear
The market generally believes that when the company's stock price fell back more than 20% at a higher point, the stock fell into a technical bear market. It can now be said that Tesla has fallen into a "bear market", and this is the third time in the year.
In fact, the root cause of this wave of sharp adjustment began with Musk's high reduction.
I vaguely remember that in October this year, Tesla's stock price soared, and the stock price reached a record high of $1243.49 in November, ranking among the "trillion dollar club" of US stocks. Subsequently, Musk launched a vote on Twitter to reduce holdings, and netizens decided whether to sell 10% of his shares.
With the support of netizens, Musk has indeed done so, and as of yesterday, Musk has sold about 11.9 million shares of Tesla stock since November 8, accounting for 70.18% of the number of shares it previously promised.
To know that the founder cashed out a large proportion of the market, this will definitely be very unfavorable to the stock price, and will also seriously affect the investment confidence of investors. Is it that Musk himself thinks that the stock price is a bit high? We don't know what he thinks, but at least this practice actually explains a lot of problems.
There is also a signal that Tesla's solar system defect caused a fire and has been complained about, and the SECURITIES regulatory commission has begun to investigate this.
On December 6, after the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission announced the investigation, Tesla's stock price directly plummeted by 6%, but the subsequent stock price is still very strong. What really makes the Wall Street giants look at may be the excessive speculation of new energy.
Stretching Tesla's stock price, it can be seen that before 2020, Tesla's stock price is still very flat, from 2017 to 2019 is below $100 / share, failed to really break through.
However, in 2020, Tesla's stock price is like a rocket, from the starting point of about $100 / share, directly soared to about $820 / share, and continued to climb in 2021, to a high point of about $1050 / share today.
At the starting point of 2020, in just two years, Tesla's stock price has soared by 1200%, which is a must in the US stock market!
Even The Wood Sister, who has always been a staunch supporter of Tesla and is bullish to $3,000, has been selling. Since September, Ark Investment, managed by Wood Sister, has sold more than 2.3 million Tesla shares, reducing its position by more than half. Seeing such a high valuation, even if the institution looks at the new energy track again, it must weigh itself.
Finally, the listing of U.S. electric pickup truck maker Rivian may also have put additional pressure on Tesla's stock price. Rivian has been called the "Tesla Killer." Rivian's listing offers institutional investors an additional option, as tesla may have been the best target in the electric car space before.
Where else is it going to fall?
On November 30, fed chairman Powell's speech, dovish voice loud, so that the US stock market has been hit a lot, the market forecast even if the Fed will not raise interest rates in the short term, but the follow-up Fed is likely to raise interest rates, because the current inflation has far exceeded imagination, interest rate hikes to suppress inflation is reasonable.
Once the interest rate is raised, there is a risk of adjustment for the stock market, which is beyond doubt, and the amount of funds released before will gradually be recovered.
New energy has been overhyped in 2020 and 2021, Tesla has just achieved a turnaround, and the level of profitability is simply not enough to support such a high stock price. Therefore, long before Musk announced the reduction, Wall Street investment bank JPMorgan Chase had already released a signal of bearish Tesla.
On October 21, JPMorgan issued an analyst rating setting Tesla's December 2022 share price target at $250. This means that over the next 12 months, JPMorgan Chase believes that Tesla shares are at risk of falling by more than 75%. JPMorgan Chase did not give any specific reasons, that is, it felt too expensive. However, it feels a bit like a bo eyeball, a bit exaggerated.
According to Tesla's price-earnings ratio, it is now more than 30 times, even if it falls by 80%, it must be more than 70 times the valuation. Although Tesla has been growing strongly, even at high growth, it is difficult to maintain such a high valuation level.
Tesla's total market value of nearly 1 trillion US dollars, indeed too expensive, the total market value of the second car company Toyota is less than 250 billion US dollars, Volkswagen and BYD are ranked 3-4, the market value is only 130 billion US dollars, this gap is too big, the global car company's market value together, may be just enough for Tesla half. Although Tesla represents the direction of the future and is also the leader in the new energy industry, the valuation has killed the global automotive industry, which is a bit unreasonable.
Leaving aside the view of JPMorgan Chase that the huge decline of 75%, according to other Conservative Wall Street analysts said that the decline of more than 20%, the stock price will be less than $800, then there is still a lot of room for adjustment.
Of course, it is not only Wall Street investment banks that are openly bearish on Tesla, as Tesla's stock price climbs higher and higher this year, savvy institutional investors have also chosen to fall into the bag early.
Wind data shows that in the third quarter of this year, a total of 986 institutional shareholders liquidated Tesla shares, and another 333 institutional shareholders reduced their holdings. So at the end of the third quarter, the number of Tesla institutional shareholders has decreased from 2048 at the end of the second quarter to 1654, and the total number of institutional shares has also decreased from 394 million shares at the end of the second quarter to 153 million shares, down 61.23% from the previous quarter.
Overall, as of the end of the third quarter, there were still three institutional investors holding more than 10 million shares of Tesla stock. Among them, STATE STREET CORP is the most aggressive, holding a total of 31.23 million shares and holding a market value of up to $24.2 billion.
It was followed by BAILLIE GIFFORD & CO and JENNISON ASSOCIATES LLC, which held 13.85 million and 10.63 million shares, respectively, with market capitalizations of about $10.75 billion and $8.25 billion. It is worth noting that baillie GIFFORD & CO, the second largest institutional investor, has been reducing its holdings in Tesla stock since the fourth quarter of last year, and the number of shares held has been reduced by more than 60% compared with 34.7 million shares at the end of the third quarter of last year.
In fact, no matter what the relevant institutions in the United States hold about the future Tesla stock, the forecast value is. From the current development of Tesla, it is an indisputable fact that its founder frantically cashed out stocks and caused Tesla's stock price to plummet. For Musk, the behavior of stock cash-out will not stop in the short term, but will increase. Therefore, Tesla's stock may be difficult to usher in a significant rise in the short term.
End
Tesla is a bit crazy now, and historical experience has repeatedly shown that the valuation level is not sustainable for a long time, and if the valuation cannot be digested by performance, I am afraid that it can only sacrifice the stock price.
However, the current decline in Tesla prices is actually not a bad thing, which is undoubtedly the process of squeezing out the previous bubble for Tesla.
But for ordinary investors at this time to be cautious and careful, after all, Tesla is still in a bubble release process, whether to enter the Tesla market, in the end how to operate this market, there must be a very cautious choice.
In general, whether new energy vehicles can replace the internal combustion engine in the future is the key to whether Tesla can support high valuations. It is expected that after the market value returns to rationality, in the future, in the context of global carbon neutrality, new energy will have a good performance, and Tesla may be far more than this.