On the evening of December 13, the Tianjin Municipal Health Commission reported that Tianjin had detected the new coronavirus Omilon variant from the inbound personnel, which was the first detection of the Chinese mainland. According to the notice, the Tianjin Municipal Center for Disease Control and Prevention conducted the whole genome sequencing and sequence analysis of the new coronavirus on the respiratory specimens of asymptomatic infected people imported from outside Tianjin on December 9, and after review by the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, it was confirmed that the New Coronavirus Olmicron variant (B.1.1.529 evolutionary branch) was detected. Those infected in Tianjin are closed-loop control personnel in Tianjin and are currently isolated and treated in designated hospitals.
How will "Omi Kerong" spread around the world in the future?
Recently, at the 2021 Greater Bay Area Science Forum Life Science Sub-forum, Zhang Wenhong, director of the Department of Infectious Diseases of Huashan Hospital affiliated to Fudan University, delivered a keynote speech remotely, sharing the team's recent experience in the new crown virus game, and also made a series of detailed analysis of mutated strains such as "Aomi Kerong".
In the short term, humanity does not have the conditions to completely eliminate COVID-19 on a global scale
According to the comparison of the epidemic trend of the new crown virus and previous infectious diseases, Zhang Wenhong said that the spread of the virus is mainly two influencing factors, whether the transmission speed is fast enough, and whether humans have completed herd immunity. According to the experience of the game with viruses in human history, in the short term, human beings do not have the conditions to completely eliminate the new crown on a global scale.
Source: Figureworm Creative
Analyze the vaccine prevention model of various countries
Zhang compared the British model, the Singapore model and the Israeli model in response to the epidemic. Among them, Singapore adopts the model of "full vaccination + dynamic opening", and the number of cases in the country increased significantly after it was fully opened in September, and restrictions on opening were imposed immediately. "This model echoes China's dynamic zeroing model very well, and not taking the extreme route is a near-stage response strategy that is in line with the actual situation of their respective countries."
The Israeli model, on the other hand, implements an open policy after completing two full vaccinations, while rapidly promoting the strengthening of vaccination, which has performed well in controlling case fatality and morbidity. "Therefore, the vaccination of enhanced needles will give us new hope." Zhang Wenhong said.
"Recently, Academician Zhong Nanshan and I also discussed the topic of strengthening immunization on the phone. Our team's research found that different forms of booster vaccination can greatly increase the level of antibodies after two injections, which is conducive to the realization of openness. He said.
The emergence of "Omi Kerong" has led many countries to adopt strict control measures. In view of the future scenario of the global spread of "Omicron", Zhang Wenhong put forward three ideas:
Best-case scenario: local spread, weak virulence; global spread, weak virulence. As a result, the current austerity policy will be gradually relaxed.
Acceptable: strong transmission, strong virulence, enhanced vaccine effectiveness. Vaccines are needed to strengthen vaccination to accelerate the spread.
Grim future: strong transmission, strong virulence, ineffective vaccine enhancement. New vaccine strategies are needed to tighten prevention and control strategies.
At the end of the speech, Zhang Wenhong firmly stated that with regard to the formulation of future medical strategies, China has enough technical strength to deal with the mutation of the new crown virus, and no matter which laboratory in China is ready to meet the future of further research. "I am still full of confidence in the future. The road is obstructed and long, the line is coming, the line is not quitting, and the future can be expected."
Source: Clinical Frontline of the Health Community
Synthesized from Jinyun, Nanfang Daily, Southern Metropolis Daily, etc