Today's Border between Ukraine and Russia is like a powder keg, and with just a little bit of Mars, there is a possibility of a big explosion. Recently, eu high representative for foreign affairs and security policy Borrell warned at the meeting of the EU Foreign Affairs Committee that the situation in Russia and Ukraine is in danger of further escalation. "Now it only takes a little bit of Mars for the situation in the Ukrainian border region to be ignited," he said. ”
According to a December 9 report by the Associated Press, U.S. intelligence agencies intercepted a classified document and found that the Russian military was planning to launch military operations against Ukraine as early as early next year, and in this so-called "confidential document", it was revealed that the Russian army would use 100 battalion-level tactical groups, a total of 175,000 soldiers, to attack Ukraine.
According to the photos taken by the US reconnaissance satellite, a large number of Russian combat equipment did appear in the area near the Russian-Ukrainian border. Trains loaded with a large amount of Russian military equipment, including tanks, armored vehicles and heavy artillery, are heading for the Russian-Ukrainian border. Russia has deployed more than 100,000 troops along the Russian-Ukrainian border, and the military build-up exceeds the Russian military's armed seizure of Crimea in 2014.
This may be hype and exaggeration in the US and European media and Ukrainian side. At the current size of the Russian army, it is unlikely to send 100 battalion-level tactical clusters (BTGs), because the Russian Army has only formed a total of 136 battalion-level tactical clusters (BTGs), and Russian Defense Minister Shoigu said not long ago that the roth army has reached a full capacity of 95 to 100%, so the Russian army is unlikely to form more battalion-level tactical clusters (BTGs) in a short period of time without large-scale emergency expansion.
The Russian Battalion Tactical Cluster (BTG) is a quasi-synthetic combat unit that has recently been reformed by the military, usually based on a mechanized infantry battalion, reinforced with a 10-vehicle tank company, an artillery battalion, three 2S19 or 2S3 type 152 mm self-propelled howitzer companies and a rocket artillery company. It is necessary to strengthen the technical units of the brigade or group army, including reconnaissance, engineering, anti-chemical warfare, repair, air defense units, and even the strength of the original group army, such as electric reconnaissance, command, and unmanned aerial vehicles. Basically, half or even a brigade's firepower and technical weapons were reinforced and supported by a mechanized infantry battalion.
Due to the excessive number of additional reinforced units, it is unlikely that the Russian army will form too many battalion-level tactical clusters (BTGs), and more than a hundred is already the limit. Given Russia's vast territory and the large number of strategic directions that need to be defended, it is highly unlikely that the Russian military will be able to deploy the vast majority of battalion-level tactical clusters (BTGs) to the Ukrainian border.
Therefore, the Russian army that is currently advocating the suppression of the border and the imminent outbreak of war are likely to be the United States and Ukraine. Ukraine's voice calling on Western countries to impose a new round of economic sanctions on Russia has been ignored by the West for the time being. Ukraine will eventually be reduced to cannon fodder in the U.S.-Russia game. Sure enough, Biden instigated, and on December 10, Biden announced that the United States would not send troops to protect Ukraine, that the United States was not obligated to use force to protect Ukraine; that the so-called collective defense clause would apply only to U.S. allies, but not to Ukraine that was not a member of NATO.
At present, the United States only wants to sanction Russia economically, revealing or will restrict the exchange of Russian rubles. If this sanction is actually imposed, it will be a major blow to the Russian economy. However, Russia cannot collapse, and Russia can use other foreign currencies such as the renminbi for some international settlement. On the contrary, this will help China and Russia to strengthen their close strategic partnership.
For now, this is still a temptation for the United States and Europe, because the premise of this sanction is that Russia will launch a war of aggression against Ukraine, and the United States will take action with Western allies to cut off Russia's ties with the international financial system.
The main means are the imposition of sanctions on Russia's largest banks and the Russian Direct Investment Fund. Prevent Russian rubles from being converted into dollars, euros or pounds sterling. The most important of these measures are to cut off Russia's ties with the SWIFT (Global Association for Banking and Financial Telecommunication) payment system, as well as a series of severe restrictions on Russian banks, as was done in previous years when Iran was sanctioned.
Most of Russia's foreign exchange reserves are gold. At present, the gold holdings are about 2300 tons, which is the fifth largest gold holder in the world, while China's gold reserves are about 1948 tons, ranking the sixth largest gold holder after Russia. Russia's foreign exchange reserves total $569 billion, of which gold accounts for a sizable share.
In recent years, Russia has also actively explored de-dollarization and used foreign currencies such as the renminbi for settlement. Coupled with Russia's self-sufficiency in raw materials, energy and food, the blow of external sanctions on Russia will not be obviously effective.