Bayern Munich vs Dortmund Preview: The National Derby is staged again

During the long football season, derbys, rivalry and classic matches are all marked with mileage. They gave us an excuse to check on the two key teams to see how everything went and see what had happened since the last time the two teams met. Bayern Munich vs Borussia Dortmund will compete at the Westphalia Stadium on Saturday

What's happened since the last time these two German heavyweights played off? To answer this question, the reporter delved into the data and interviewed former Bayern Munich and German national team captain Philipp Ram.

Both teams have fought for injuries and random inconsistencies since Bayern beat Borussia Dortmund 3-1 in the German Super Cup on 17 August, bayern's sixth consecutive win in the series. Borussia Dortmund's star goalscorer Erin Haaland missed six Bundesliga games and three Champions League games due to injury. But other core players such as left-back Rafael Guerrero, winger Gio Renner, midfielder Emre Kan and Mahmoud Dahoud, attacking midfielder Sogan Hazad and defender Mats Hammels also missed the game, while rising midfielder Jude Bellingham was also slightly injured last week; His status on Saturday was uncertain.

As the mid-season approached, first-year manager Marco Rose had little chance to make his main squad play, even in training. So we haven't yet got a clear vision of what Ross wants to implement in Dortmund. "He's not lucky, he has a lot of injuries to deal with," Ram said. For this reason, he may have done some experiments, but the results were not very good. I believe he is still looking for a system that suits Dortmund, but for that he needs healthy players. ”

In the Champions League, Borussia Dortmund's problems mostly came up quietly, starting with two wins but losing three consecutive games on aggregate 2-10 before being relegated to the Europa League knockout stage. But even with a reduced squad, they have scored crucial victories in the league, most recently a 3-1 win at Wolfsburg on Saturday.

Bayern's problems are less serious and certainly haven't affected the club's Champions League status: so far, the 2020 Champions have won all five group games with a 19-3 aggregate score. But the 2-1 losses to Eintracht Frankfurt and Augsburg brought some unexpected points, and they lost 0-5 to Borussia Mönchengladbach, who were eliminated from the DFB match.

New head coach Julian Nagelsman missed several games due to a positive coronavirus test and was forced to adjust his squad, especially in midfield.

Joshua Kimic missed time due to quarantine and a positive coronavirus test — he will also miss Saturday's race. Right-back Benjamin Pavard, who often plays the role of midfielder in training, missed his first month of games with an ankle injury, Corentin Tolisso missed the second month of play with a calf injury and Marcel Sabitzer, who is now a summer transfer, also suffered a calf injury. Bayern also have Leon Goretska, as well as Tolisso and Pavard, but they may not have the midfield advantage they did against Borussia Dortmund.

Despite Bayern's better performance in Europe, the two teams are really only one point apart in the Bundesliga table, and no other team is 6 points apart from the top of the table. While the league has produced some delightful surprises, it's easy to see this as a game between two teams.

"There are teams that surprise me – Freiburg are one of them," Ram said. Freiburg are currently fourth and could have been ranked higher if it had not been for their most recent losses to Bochum and Bayern. "They've been doing a good job so far. But I believe the champions will be decided between Bayern and Borussia Dortmund. I think Leipzig and Bayer Leverkusen have fallen behind by some points, so I believe it will end up being a bayern-Dortmund showdown. ”

Saturday's winner will lead the team into matchday 15.

So far, Rose's side has exceeded their expectations, and this superb performance has come mainly from Haaland, who scored 10 league goals in 7.1 games in 557 minutes of Bundesliga matches, equivalent to 6.2 games. But their defense was perhaps lucky not to suffer more missteps: although they ranked ninth in the league in allowed goals and shots allowed per possession.

Rose's style is possession, but the chaotic midfield makes them as vulnerable as ever when they counter-attack.

As one might expect, whether Haaland joins or not, Dortmund is a completely different team. "Pink step skirt Haaland Dortmund is a very important player," Ram said, "not only in terms of his football skills, but also in his attitude, his team, the other players he does, take them, let them infect his passion and really help them get better." ”

When Haaland was in the starting line-up, they were prolific and free-flowing – in his seven league games, they averaged 2.6 points and 3.3 goals per game, with a further 1.9 goals. Without him, they would have been more conservative, averaging 1.7 goals per game, but only letting their opponents score 1.0 goals per game and scoring 2.0 points per game.

The appearance of the Norwegian striker is clearly influential, but Mullen's recent performances have also been encouraging. The 22-year-old, who moved from Eindhoven in July, has scored just two goals in the league, but these are goals he has scored in his last two games. The amount of his gun also slowly increased.

"He joined a new club, it's a new league, so things take time," Ram said. "Of course he's a skilled player, you just have to get him on the pitch, you need to give him some time. It's too time-consuming. ”

In the game against Wolfsburg, Meren's world wave from 23 yards in the 55th minute let Dortmund take away a point, and we will be interesting to see how he fit Rose's plan while Haaland also returned to full strength.

They dominate statistically, even when it comes to losing. They have more shots per round than other teams, and the average number of shots is also the highest in the league. In all competitions this season, star striker Lewandowski has scored 25 goals in 20 games.

"I believe Julian Negersmann just saw where Leroy Sane could play with his utmost confidence and get him back there," Ram said of Sane's progress. Similarly, a player who changed a club like Le Roy a year ago is important to gain that confidence by being allowed to play several games in a row. There may be good games between them or bad games, but this approach restores the confidence of the players. ”

Sane has played 1,442 minutes in all competitions this year, almost 60 percent of the 2,454 minutes he played last season.

Bayern dominate almost on the defensive end, with the fewest shots per possession. Left-back Alfonso Davis has won 80 times (65 per cent) on 123 one-on-one this season, while Upamecano and his team-mate Lucas Hernandez have won 80 times (67 per cent) on 120 one-on-one.

At Nagelsman, Bayern found a suitable candidate to replace Guardiola (who coached the team in 2013-16) and Frick (who coached the team in 2019-21).

Ram said: "I believe Julian is a big fan of Guardiola and has embraced his model." "Bayern under Guardiola took a variety of tactics: sometimes three (defenders), sometimes four, sometimes four defensive, sometimes three attacking. Negsmann is a young, very modern coach and Guardiola has left his mark on the Bundesliga and I think he has become a role model to follow. ”

As one might expect, without ESPN 100's No. 2 midfielder Kim Mickey, their performance would have been less impressive. They did lose to Augsburg on 19 November, taking a slim advantage in the Champions League games against Dynamo Kiev (2-1) and Bielefeld (1-0).

Ram said: "Obviously, Kimic is a very important player for Bayern Munich. This is true today and certainly for Goretska in the future. If a key player like Jimmych is absent from a top-level game, it can't be left behind. This will certainly not help. ”

While Bayern won only six of their 10-game series from November 2016 to August 2019, they won six straight games in the next six games with an aggregate score of 18-7. Borussia Dortmund are adept at playing against the German champions, leading 2-0 (Munich) and 1-0 (Borussia Dortmund) in the league last season, but each time being beaten by Bayern. In those six games, Bayern averaged 16.3 shots per game, 2.5 times, while BVB averaged 8.2 and 1.2 shots per game. They enjoyed five higher xGs in six games, more touches in four games and a higher pass rate in five games.

With Haaland's return and Bayern midfielder without Kimic, Dortmund have a chance, but it's hard to bet they won't win back. "Haaland is coming back from injury, so it's certainly an important factor," Ram said, "and they're going to play at home at Borussia Dortmund, so I hope it's going to be a match-matching game."

But I personally bet on Bayern Munich, although I would prefer Dortmund to take away a win