What are the chain reactions of virus mutation? How does it work?

Today's main contents include:

What are the chain reactions of virus mutation?

Overseas recovery: If there is no sharp surge in severe illness and fatality rates, it will mainly cause interference with short-term production and employment, which can refer to the situation in the United States from August to September, which will mainly bring about an increase in inflationary pressure, which is also the reason for the sharp rise in overseas gold on Friday.

Fed policy: the difficult situation of slowing employment improvement + rising inflationary pressures is likely to be exacerbated, and the Fed's previous interest rate hikes and Taper may be delayed.

Asset trend: Risk assets will face some upward pressure in the short term, but the impact of the virus and economic policies are not clear.

Domestic stock market: Under the deterioration of the epidemic environment, the pressure of domestic prevention and control will certainly increase, the recovery of services, airports, tax exemptions and other related consumption is still facing a certain contract, highly valued new energy may also be killed, and the auto zero plate under the logic of replenishing inventory before will also be affected.

The favorable plates are: 1) vaccines, medical device ventilators, oximeters, etc., the domestic distribution of medical devices is relatively complete, mainly looking at the overseas increment; 2) the production capacity and inventory of masks and gloves have come up, and it should not be too lacking; 3), if overseas control cannot be controlled, then China's exports will remain high next year, and will not decline as expected by the market before, and the sea freight rate is estimated to go up again.

Recently I saw two controversial messages on vaccines:

1) MRNA will respond faster to the mutant virus than inactivated vaccines, more likely to respond to the human immune system, and the speed of introduction will be faster, and the two main companies under the technology are Watson and Fosun. On Friday, the US stock mRNA companies rose very much, and the specific technical analysis I passed a summary of the [Vaccine Industry Expert Exchange Meeting] on the planet, and friends on the planet can go to see it.

2) Concerns about the effectiveness of mRNA, expert interpretation is that the vaccine should be effective, but because the virus mutation increases the protection rate will decline, but also saw a piece of information that mRNA is not very reliable, there is no way to form immunity to the virus, but too professional Xiaobai does not understand, after all, not a medical student, mRNA is recommended to look at the market sentiment and then make a judgment, other technical routes of Zhifei, CanSino, Kangtai, etc., Monday's big rebound is certain.

Can The fund of Gülen in Xiao Bai's hand finally be unwinded?

What is the collection code?

On Friday morning, Beijing Daily sent a message saying that from March 1, 2022, WeChat, Alipay collection code can not be used for business collection, as soon as the news came out, Ali and Tencent fell sharply, digital currency immediately pulled up, but in the afternoon came out to refute rumors is not not used, mainly affecting two types of people:

1) Non-face-to-face static collection, mainly online gambling, telecommunications fraud and other behaviors;

2) Small and micro merchants, before the street small and micro merchants are using personal collection codes, this part of the collection Tencent does not charge a handling fee, reflecting the minimum 0.1%; the policy is to require that this collection code can not be used, need to apply for change to operational use, but the standard of the change of the relevant departments is still under study.

The information fermented for a weekend, and I watched the interpretation of the agency gradually become:

Prohibiting the use of personal collection codes for business activities is conducive to the improvement of the scale of commercial payment transactions on payment platforms, and converting individuals without handling fees such as wet markets and breakfast shops into merchant codes that require handling fees will bring about improvements in the income side.

Seems to be very reasonable, but it seems to be difficult to implement, look at the follow-up implementation of the strength, I hope that my Chinese Internet more up, digital currency this piece,

Pig cycle

Recently, I listened to several expert meetings, mainly experts from the Academy of Agricultural Sciences, the Ministry of Rural Agriculture, international product production and trade, chatted about their views on the pig cycle and shared them with you.

Short-term: pig prices in late November may fall, June-July and October pig prices rebound, mainly from the pig price oversold rebound and frozen pig storage rebound, the first two rounds of rebound are from the consumption of the boost, but the current supply has not formed a contrarian trend,

Long-term: can breed sows to reduce a certain amount of time, generally this reduction cycle in about 6 months, the probability of the second half of next year will enter the capacity reversal period, 2023 pig prices into the rising cycle,