The global plunge, why can A shares stand alone? A number of public offerings to interpret "Omi Kerong", will A shares have a chain reaction? The key is to look at which factors

Financial Associated Press (reporter, Han Li Shen Shuhong) news, last weekend, many countries found a new crown variant "Omicron", causing global concerns, the US stock market also suffered a "Black Friday".

In this context, A shares have shown strong resilience. As of the close of trading on November 29, the Shanghai Composite Index slowly moved higher after two pullbacks, closing down 0.04%, the Shenzhen Component Index opened nearly 1% lower in the morning, and finally closed up 0.22%, and the ChiNext Index rose 1%, once again standing at 3500 points. Affected by the new variant virus, concepts such as biological products, vaccines, and medical testing were strong throughout the day, and leisure services, real estate, household appliances, media and other sectors fell significantly.

What is the impact of the new variant virus on the market? Why are A shares so "strong"? Where should the future market go? With the above questions, the reporter of the Financial Associated Press interviewed nearly ten public fund companies. In the view of a number of public offerings, the spread of the "Omikejong" virus remains to be seen, and it is expected that the monetary policy of various countries will tend to be relaxed, given that the growth style is less affected by economic growth at the molecular end, and at the same time, it is more beneficial to the valuation increase brought about by the decline in interest rates, and it is expected that the future growth style may be dominant.

The global plunge, why can A shares "stand alone"?

Zhu Mingrui, a pharmaceutical researcher at nord Fund, summarized the reasons why the domestic market has not been too involved into two points, one is that the domestic epidemic prevention and control is very in place, and the number of new crown infections is much lower than overseas; second, after the weekend information dissemination, the domestic market has certain expectations for the new crown Omicron mutation strain. At present, the data disclosed by the new crown Omicron mutation strain is actually not very much, which can only be said to have the potential of a "super toxic strain" at present, and it is not appropriate to over-interpret the harm of this mutant strain.

Rongtong Fund also stressed that for A shares, first of all, the impact of the epidemic itself on the economy, due to the highly strict domestic control policy, the epidemic is more difficult to spread on a large scale, the impact is controllable, and because of the completeness of the supply chain, the export demand benefits from the spread of the epidemic overseas to a certain extent; secondly, the difference in the effectiveness of the epidemic prevention policy enhances the national self-confidence, and the virus mutation will once again impact the basic cognition of European and American countries to "treat the virus as a large flu", as well as the corresponding epidemic prevention and economic hedging policies; and finally, the capital level Overseas is in a stage of rising risk aversion, and its heavy leading stocks may be negatively impacted. Therefore, in terms of overall style, there is short-term pressure on pro-cyclical value styles.

Morgan Stanley Huaxin believes that for China, China's rapid response and dynamic zeroing strategy are expected to deal with various types of variants, so the domestic market is not as worried about the mutant virus as it is in overseas markets. However, it should also be noted that when global risk aversion has heated up in history, foreign capital still tends to flow out in stages, and investment needs to remain cautious.

Judging from the domestic economic data, the profit data of industrial enterprises in October has rebounded significantly compared with September, but the overall reason is still based on the recovery of industrial product prices. Judging from the observation of november data, it has begun to show the characteristics of "volume stability and price decline". Or after the October rally, the relevant growth rate will return to the downward channel. From the perspective of various factors, the current downward pressure on the economy has gradually increased, and the signal of "stable growth" in China has begun to be clear.

GF Fund starts from the experience of the spread of the Delta virus, due to the poor predictability of the epidemic, the governments of major countries will be more conservative in monetary policy, the probability of tightening the currency under the fermentation of the epidemic has fallen sharply, and the interest rate trend is likely to be weak. "We've seen a significant drop in market expectations for a Fed rate hike in September. Secondly, China's epidemic prevention and control policy makes China's epidemic prevention and control situation better than that of Europe and the United States, so the A-share probability is the same as during the spread of Delta, the overall impact is small, and we believe that the performance of A-shares will be better than that of European and American stock markets. ”

The point to buy has arrived?

In the view of Boshi Fund, the fermentation of the new crown mutant strain, the superimposed A-share money-making effect has expanded to a high level, and the short-term A-share or overseas homeopathic rest, but considering that the market is still in the pre-warming up stage before the spring restlessness, the adjustment provides buying points.

The company believes that the fermentation of the Omicron (Omicron) mutant strain incident has strengthened the growth style, and the layout of the layout in 2022 continues to be high growth and the two main lines of the reversal of the boom expectations.

The first is to continue to consider high-boom new energy vehicles/military/photovoltaics in 2022, which pays special attention to the military + new energy vehicle chain that alleviates the contradiction of overcrowding; the second is that the current boom is bottomed out and in the 2022 boom reversal line, small positions are recommended to consider the allocation of auto parts /pigs/games/shipbuilding in the low PB + low ROE quadrant.

In terms of Hong Kong stocks, Boshi Fund believes that with the high-level setting of the tone, the policy environment will gradually improve, since Q4 Hang Seng Technology profit expectations in the next year gradually improved, the valuation is high, the capital surface is slightly warmed, the long-term layout value is further highlighted, it is recommended to appropriately increase the Hang Seng Technology leader.

"It remains to be seen how the epidemic will play out in the future." GF Fund said. In its view, relative to the value style, the growth style is less affected by economic growth at the molecular end, and at the same time, it is more beneficial to the valuation increase brought about by the decline in interest rates, and it is expected that the growth style will outperform the value style.

Looking forward to the future, Rongtong Fund believes that the new coronavirus mutation suppresses the sentiment of external risk assets, but the impact on A-shares may be controllable, but the recent spread of the domestic epidemic is expected to produce short-term pressure on the pro-cyclical value style. Structurally, it is relatively optimistic about military industry, new energy, real estate, bank leaders and other targets.

"Structurally, the first is to pay attention to the military industry, new energy and other sectors that still maintain a high prosperity in the three quarterly reports; second, from a top-down perspective, we can pay attention to real estate, infrastructure and other sectors; and finally, pay attention to the low stock price and fundamental changes in auto parts (lack of core gradually solved), tires, price-raising food stocks and other low-level reversal trading varieties, and pay new attention to the high-quality leaders of banks." Rongtong Fund said.

Recently, the food and beverage sector has performed prominently driven by liquor. In this regard, the Bank of Shanghai Fund said that liquor is still running in the boom cycle and the high-end liquor boom cycle caused by price control may be extended, while the sub-categories of mass consumer goods have opened a price increase cycle, and it is necessary to pay close attention to the market acceptance after the price increase.

In terms of sectors, the company still pays attention to high-end liquor with greater certainty, exchanging time for space, and will also pay attention to sub-high-end liquor that accelerates the expansion of the market. In terms of mass consumer goods, the upstream cost pressure may be alleviated in the fourth quarter, at present, the competition pattern is relatively better, the pressure transmission is still more smooth is still the beer sector, followed by dairy products. The rise of raw milk upstream of dairy products has tended to ease, and on the basis of good demand and previous price increases, the performance is expected to accelerate the release and can maintain positive attention.

"It is expected that the A-share market may oscillate low this week, and then there is a certain probability of coming out of the independent market." SPDB AXA Fund is a general statement.

"With the continuous clarification of the policy bottom, the market may shift from a trading recession to a trading recovery, and we believe that there will be no systematic and comprehensive strong stimulus, and the probability of structural strong stimulus is higher." Wu Hao, director of the research department of CITIC Prudential Fund, said frankly that he expects the follow-up market style to be relatively balanced; the focus will still be on the industries supported by policies such as "double carbon", "independent controllability" and "common prosperity" in the future, and actively pay attention to consumer attribute assets with cost transmission capabilities.

From the perspective of various factors, Morgan Stanley Huaxin Fund said that the current downward pressure on the economy has gradually increased, and the signal of China's "stable growth" has begun to be clear. In terms of liquidity, the third quarter cargo administration report shows that there will be a "marginal easing" (the tone of the overall looseness), while superimposing the spring restless market, concerns about the new variant virus or delaying the tightening of overseas monetary policy, etc., the future market is still worth looking forward to, but the short-term or will maintain a shock trend.