Source: Huaxia Graticule
The "South China Sea Strategic Situational Awareness" released a message saying that the US military reconnaissance plane "rarely crossed the Taiwan Strait" on the 29th. The analysis believes that the P-8A crossing the Taiwan Strait may be a response to the PLA's recent large-scale police patrol activities in the Taiwan Strait area, brushing up the sense of existence on both sides of the strait. At present, the situation in the Taiwan Strait is highly sensitive, and if the US reconnaissance plane frequently flies in the Taiwan Strait, the risk is extremely high, and it is likely to trigger an accident of shooting off the gun and mistaking fire.
The South China Sea Strategic Situational Awareness Platform released a message that on November 29, a P-8A anti-submarine patrol aircraft (AE6832) of the US Navy took off from the Misawa base in Japan and crossed the airspace over the Taiwan Strait from south to north. This is the first time this year that a US military plane has crossed the Taiwan Strait.
Judging from the route map released by the "South China Sea Strategic SituationAlity", the US military plane took off at 6:50 on the same day, flew all the way south, passed through the Philippine Sea, and flew from the Bashi Strait to the south mouth of the Taiwan Strait. At about 12:20 p.m., the aircraft began to fly from south to north over the airspace over the Taiwan Strait on the side close to the mainland.
Military experts say the P-8A's crossing of the Taiwan Strait may be a response to the PLA's recent patrols in the Taiwan Strait, brushing up on a presence in the Taiwan Strait. However, the Taiwan Strait is highly sensitive, and if the US reconnaissance plane frequently flies in the Taiwan Strait, the risk is extremely high, which may trigger an accident of gun shooting and misfire. The P-8A's first-test flight close to the mainland, on the one hand, is to facilitate reconnaissance of the mainland's maritime, coastal and deep targets. On the other hand, it is also afraid of causing greater trouble.
According to reports, the P-8A anti-submarine patrol aircraft is an anti-submarine patrol aircraft developed on the basis of the Boeing 737 passenger aircraft, which has anti-submarine, anti-ship and reconnaissance functions. Equipped with an AN/APY-10 multifunction radar, the P-8A provides 360-degree surveillance of maritime, land and coastal areas, with simultaneous scanning and tracking of multiple targets. The aircraft is equipped with an AN/ALQ-240(V)1 "Maritime Patrol System" with 100 sonar buoys for underwater search, and when the aircraft finds the periscope or snorkel of the opposing submarine through radar, it accelerates to the vicinity of the target exposure point and drops sonar buoys. Sonar buoys send sonar signals to detect submarines and transmit information over radio to anti-submarine patrol aircraft. It is also equipped with an Early Warning Self-Protection (EWSP) system and other standard U.S. Navy equipment. The aircraft has 5 built-in magazines and 6 external mounting points for the "Harpoon" anti-ship missile and anti-submarine torpedo. It is also equipped with an electronic reconnaissance system and an infrared night vision sensor.
Experts believe that further analysis and observation are needed for the purpose of the US anti-submarine patrol plane to fly over the Taiwan Strait this time. However, there are roughly three possibilities: First, during the flight, the P-8A will receive intelligence or rely on its own sensors to find an underwater target in the Taiwan Strait, and then change the course to reconnoiter the underwater target.
The second is to make a provocative response to the PLA's recent activities in the Taiwan Strait, "brushing up the sense of existence," and at the same time expressing support for the Taiwan authorities. Over the past few days, the EASTERN Theater of the People's Liberation Army has continuously carried out cruise activities in the Taiwan Strait. According to Taiwan media reports, the Taiwan military announced on the 28th that the oil-20 air tanker appeared in the direction of the Taiwan Strait for the first time.
Third, the passage of US military aircraft across the Taiwan Strait will become the new normal, just as US warships sail through the Taiwan Strait. Due to the sensitive status of the Taiwan Strait and the rapid speed of the aircraft, if the US plane frequently flies over the Taiwan Strait, it is extremely easy to cause accidents. Aerial reconnaissance in the Taiwan Strait area is usually conducted by the Taiwan military and then shared with the U.S. military.
According to reports, on the 28th, the continental army plane also entered the airspace southeast of Taiwan Island, and the Comments of the Taiwan side believed that this was a fighter cover tanker, and the tanker was a real combat exercise for the fighter's endurance. The southeast direction of Taiwan is one of the directions in which the US military will intervene in the war in the Taiwan Strait, and this exercise is believed to be aimed at attacking targets in the eastern part of Taiwan Island and crushing the wartime tasks that come to interfere with the US military.
The PLA's capture of Taiwan Island in order to achieve reunification is generally regarded as a relatively easy mission, and the appearance of the Y-20 confirms that the PLA has begun to prepare for an all-round three-dimensional military struggle around the Taiwan Strait, that is, to confront the external interference forces when implementing armed reunification, drive them away, or annihilate them on the spot.
Chinese mainland already has two aircraft carrier battle groups, a powerful submarine force, a complete medium-range capability to attack enemy maritime targets on land, and the oil-20 with a fuel carrying capacity of up to 60 tons will greatly enhance the stagnation time and range of PLA fighters after joining the preparation for military struggle.
Taiwan military's existing "Stegosaurus-class" submarines (data map)
Reuters sources said that manufacturers and related personnel in 7 countries, including the United States and the United Kingdom, are "secretly" helping the DPP authorities to build their own submarines. The report quoted sources familiar with Taiwan's submarine self-building program as saying that "all governments have provided export permits for the sale of key components to Taiwan."
It is reported that Brigadier General McGee, retired from the British Royal Navy's submarine fleet, is a key figure in the recruitment of Taiwan's submarine construction planners. He assisted a Gibraltar-based company in recruiting the engineers and professionals needed to build submarines for Taiwan. Over the past three years, the UK has approved multiple export licences that allow British companies to supply submarine components, technology or software to Taiwan. Government data analysed by Reuters shows that the value of submarine technology approved for export to Taiwan from Britain has grown exponentially in recent years.
The Taiwan authorities have also hired engineers, technicians and retired naval officers from at least five other countries, including Australia, South Korea, India, Spain and Canada." Based in the port of Kaohsiung, it provides professional advice to the Taiwan Navy and Taiwan International Shipbuilding Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as Taiwan Ship), which is responsible for building submarines.
In this regard, Taiwan's defense department claimed that the challenges of submarine self-construction have been "eliminated" and that the work is "proceeding according to plan."
However, netizens on the island poured cold water on the table and questioned, "The quality of the 'United Nations' ships is different, everyone says their own words, and is sure that it will really float up when the time comes?" The world's most expensive miscellaneous assembled submarine?" Every country wants to make a profit!"
According to Taiwan's Zhongshi News Network, Taiwan's defense budget for next year has included a total of about NT$26.33 billion in terms of sales of US troops in Taiwan, of which about 25.1 billion yuan was committed to the continuous implementation of the plan, and 2 new cases were nearly 1.2 billion yuan. In the part of the continuous implementation plan of the budget, 20 cases, such as "F-16A/B fighter performance improvement" and "new tank", were carried out according to the offer letter and the contract payment schedule, totaling about 25.14 billion yuan. In addition, two new plans were added, "high-altitude unmanned aerial system" and "F-16 aircraft long-range precision weapons", nearly 1.2 billion yuan.
After the news came out, some netizens on the island left a sarcastic message on Facebook, "Borrow (one) generation of taxes to buy useless weapons, the United States sells really cool." ”
In fact, in view of the DPP authorities' attempt to gain "independence" by force and to resist reunification by force, Ma Xiaoguang, spokesman for the Taiwan Affairs Office of the State Council, once said: "Resisting reunification by force is a dead end." Wu Qian, spokesman for the Ministry of National Defense, also clearly stressed that any act of inciting cross-strait hostility and exaggerating cross-strait confrontation will only bring disasters to the Taiwan compatriots. The PLA has a firm will, full confidence and sufficient capacity to safeguard national sovereignty and territorial integrity.
Tan Kefei, deputy director of the Information Bureau of the Ministry of National Defense and spokesman of the Ministry of National Defense, clearly pointed out that the Taiwan issue is China's internal affair. We resolutely oppose the sale of arms by any country to Taiwan and the development of any form of military ties with Taiwan. US arms sales to Taiwan have seriously violated the one-China principle and the stipulations of the three Sino-US joint communiques, and have sent a serious wrong signal to the "Taiwan independence" separatist forces. We urge the US side to scrupulously abide by the basic norm of international relations of "non-interference in the internal affairs of other countries," which is clearly enshrined in the Charter of the United Nations and the Declaration on Principles of International Law, abide by the series of serious commitments made to the Chinese side on the Taiwan issue, prudently and properly handle Taiwan-related issues, stop any form of official exchanges and military collusion with Taiwan, and stop arms sales to Taiwan.
Tan Kefei stressed: The DPP authorities' collusion to cater to external forces, betray national interests, and even fantasize about "seeking independence by force" will only lead the Taiwan compatriots into the abyss of disaster.
One of the military tenets of the mainland is: Do not fight a battle without preparation, and if you do not fight, you will already be victorious. In order to achieve an overwhelming advantage in possible future military struggles, the PLA will conduct training preparations for the worst-case scenario and ensure that no matter how the situation develops, we have a chance to win.
Being fully prepared for military struggle does not mean that we want war. The logic of the situation in the Taiwan Strait is that the more overwhelming our military capability to strike at external interference forces, the more we can prompt the US military and its allies to calm down and abandon military involvement in the event of a war in the Taiwan Strait. The more established our deterrence is, the more the hardened Taiwan authorities will be and truly fear the deep red line drawn by the mainland.
At our doorstep, a US anti-submarine patrol plane cannot make any tricks, and the PLA's relevant forces compete for the strength of the island, not only the performance of the aircraft and the pilot's skills and tactics, but also determination and will, want to challenge the PLA's determination to protect national unity and territorial integrity, the US military is bound to lose, this is a precedent.
Also in the past two days, 10 members of Lithuania and other Baltic countries are visiting Taiwan, and as early as last week, several US lawmakers also appeared in Taiwan to perform. However, their visits are boring bubbles compared to Chinese mainland solid preparations for military struggle and will not have any substantial impact on the direction of the situation. How to resolve the Taiwan issue will eventually be shaped by the will of the Chinese people to achieve national reunification and our national strength.
Foreign Ministry spokesman Wang Wenbin stressed at a news conference held on 29 July that the Taiwan issue concerns China's sovereignty and territorial integrity, involves China's core interests, and China's determination to safeguard its sovereignty and territorial integrity is as solid as a rock. The historical trend of China's reunification is unstoppable. We advise some people in the United States not to play the Taiwan card and not to play with fire with their salaries, otherwise they will only set themselves on fire and suffer their own consequences. We are also warning the Taiwan authorities that their attempt to gain self-esteem by relying on foreigners, "relying on the United States to seek independence," and resisting reunification by force is doomed to a dead end.