On March 28, the sixth year of Later Zhou Xiande (959 AD), Later Zhou Shizong Chai Rong personally marched, led tens of thousands of people in the Northern Expedition, the army pointed directly at Yanyun Sixteen Prefectures, along the way like a bamboo, the Khitan defenders fled unsuspectingly, it took only 42 days, and the Later Zhou army connected to the three prefectures and seventeen counties.
However, the weather was unpredictable, and the 39-year-old Chai Rong suddenly fell ill on the way to the Northern Expedition, and after only more than a month, he passed away with endless regrets. A year later, Zhao Kuangyin was dressed in yellow robes, and Later Zhou was also replaced by the Northern Song Dynasty.
So the question is, if Chai Rong had not died suddenly, would the Northern Expedition of later Zhou have been able to fight a war and take back Yanyun Sixteen Prefectures?
The National Strength of the Liao State was strong, but the Later Zhou Dynasty did not unify the Central Plains, and the national strength varied greatly
Since yelü Abaoji established the Liao state and became the hegemon of the northern steppe, its national strength is booming. Although yelü Jing, the emperor of the Liao state at that time, was known as the "Sleeping King" by the world, and during his 19-year reign, he abused lynching, drank and hunted, and was cruel and unkind, it can only be said that this person had a loss of private morality, and the national strength of the Liao state did not weaken as a result, but during his reign, he changed the aggressiveness of the Liao state before and carried out strategic contraction - shifting the focus of rule to resolving internal contradictions, which not only consolidated the political power, eliminated the opposition forces, but also made the Liao state's trade, agriculture, animal husbandry and other industries have made great progress, and the people's livelihood and economy have changed the previous tired state.
In contrast, in the Later Zhou Dynasty at this time, since the fall of the Tang Dynasty in 907 AD, the Central Plains entered the Period of the Five Dynasties and Ten Kingdoms, with warlords constantly conquering and establishing many regimes. After the establishment of The Zhou Dynasty in 951 AD, in just a few years, although the two emperors Guo Wei and Chai Rong worked hard to govern and greatly increased their national strength, their weak foundation could not catch up with the Liao state in a short period of time, and their war potential was also a certain gap with the Liao state.
The loss of the three passes was insignificant for the Liao
From the topographic point of view, sanguan is located in the encirclement of the houzhou, for the Liao state to defend more difficult, its heavy troops are mainly deployed in the Youzhou area, and the three passes of the garrison are mostly Han generals, the sense of belonging to the Liao state is not so deep, so the Later Zhou army can easily take the three passes in a few tens of days.
In addition, for the Liao State, the role of Yanyun Sixteen Prefectures is also very important, after all, this is the outpost of the Liao State's march to the Central Plains, it can be said that no matter who controls the Sixteen Prefectures of Yanyun, the Song and Liao sides will occupy the strategic initiative.
Yanyun Sixteen Prefectures have been a rich land since ancient times, and the Northern Song Dynasty lost Yanyun Sixteen Prefectures, which is equivalent to losing the barrier of the north and being in a passive beating situation. For such a place where both economic and strategic positions are extremely important, the Liao State cannot easily give in. Coupled with the thick walls of youzhou city in the fourth pass, the main force of the Liao state is also stationed here, if Chai Rong really has the opportunity to attack Youzhou, even if he can finally take it, he will pay a great price, of course, it is also possible to return home and lose all his achievements.
The number of troops is limited, the logistical supply cannot keep up, and it is likely that the successor will be weak
At the time of Chai Rong's Northern Expedition, the Central Plains had not yet been unified, in order to prevent the backstabbing of southern Tang and Later Shu, it was necessary to divide troops to guard various key parts, plus the territory of Hou Zhou itself was not large, and the number of troops that could be recruited was limited, Chai Rong led tens of thousands of troops to the Northern Expedition, which can basically be said to be the nest of Hou Zhou.
With this number of troops, the possibility of capturing Yanyun Sixteen Prefectures in one go was very small, and the strategy that Chai Rong had just set at the beginning was to first attack a part of it, and then slowly plot it, and then only because the attack was too smooth, so he temporarily intended to continue to attack Youzhou.
According to the "History of the Old Five Dynasties", when Chai Rong decided to attack Youzhou, the generals around him advised him: "Now that all the horsemen are gathered in Youzhou, it is not appropriate to go deeper." If you rush into the army, once you lose, you will lose all your previous achievements. ”
As the saying goes, "the soldiers and horses have not moved, the grain and grass have gone first", and an overly smooth march will make everyone ignore the grain and grass problem in the following week. As mentioned earlier, this expedition to the Northern Expedition was already out of the nest of the Later Zhou, which shows that Chai Rong is also quite jealous of the combat effectiveness of the Liao State Iron Horse. Once the Liao state reacted and took the initiative, and then sent the main force to counterattack, the Later Zhou was very likely to fall into the quagmire of war, which became the biggest problem for the later Zhou dynasty, and it may even lead to the collapse of the domestic economic system.
Take the failure of the Northern Song Dynasty several times the Northern Expedition as a reference
Compared with the Northern Song Dynasty, the later weeks are quite different in all aspects, both in terms of the external environment and the economic volume. Even if Zhou Shizong is wise and divine, after all, there is no way to make up for the gap in hardware, because the final battle is the comprehensive national strength - Zhuge Liang's divine calculation, but the six out of qishan are fruitless, and the national strength is consumed, and the essential reason is the naked gap in national strength between the Shu state and the Wei state.
Song Taizu Zhao Kuangyin 4 Times Northern Expedition, Song Taizong Zhao Guangyi 3 Times Northern Expedition, in the absence of worries, and the strength of the troops exceeded Chai Rong, still did not complete the full success, and even several times were defeated and returned. In addition, the original goal of the Later Zhou Dynasty was also "easy before difficult", and the northward attack on the Liao was only just in time, so Chai Rong's northern expedition was far less resolute than that of the Song Dynasty.
Moreover, regarding the Yongxi Northern Expedition, the History of Song records: "Cao Bin fought with the Khitan soldiers to consolidate Annan and Keqi City. Pan Mei and the Khitan soldiers met, chased to Huanzhou, and assassinated Shi Zhao Yanxin to surrender the city. Cao Binke Zhuozhou. Pan Mei besieged Shuo Prefecture, and his deputy envoy Zhao Xizan surrendered to the city. Pan Meishi went to Ying Prefecture, and his deputy envoy Ai Zheng and the observation judge Song Xiong surrendered to the city. Tian Zhong attacked the Flying Fox, and its defender Lü Xingde and others surrendered the city. Entering the Siege Lingqiu, its defender Mu Chao surrendered to the city. Phan Meek Yun State. Re-entering Weizhou, Geng Shaozhong surrendered to the city. ”
It can be seen that during the Northern Song Dynasty, the results of the Northern Expedition were even greater than those of Chai Rong's Northern Expedition, but when the Song army fought head-on with the main force of the Liao army, the war situation was immediately reversed, and the Song army was defeated at Qigou Pass.
Taking history as a mirror, although Chai Rong's pro-expedition to the Northern Expedition occupied a temporary advantage, the reason why the large army was able to achieve good results in just a few tens of days was only because of a "fast" word, and the main Khitan force was not fully mobilized at this time. That is to say, before Chai Rong fought the main force of the Liao army, all victories and defeats were unknown, and the road to capturing Yanyun Sixteen Prefectures could still be said to be a long road.
According to historical records, Chai Rong once made a plan - ten years to open up the world, ten years to feed the people, ten years to bring peace. If Shangtian really gave him another 30 years, would it be possible to successfully retake Yanyun Sixteen Prefectures and restore the glory of the Han and Tang Dynasties? Personally, I think there is still a great opportunity.
The external environment has never been more stable
During the reign of Later Zhou Chai Rong, it had become a trend of coercion over the world, and the main opponents of the separatist forces, the Northern Han and Southern Tang, were no longer enough to be afraid, the Northern Han had already been subdued at the beginning of Chai Rong's succession, the Southern Tang ceded the entire Huainan, Li Yu had already surrendered himself to the state lord because of his fear of the Later Zhou army, and the unification of the Central Plains by later Zhou was already the trend of the times. After the Northern Song Dynasty replaced the Later Zhou Dynasty, Zhao Kuangyin spent only 13 years to unify other regions except the Northern Han Dynasty.
Secondly, the internal coup d'état chaos in the Liao state continued, and Emperor Muzong of Liao was bent on rectifying internal relations and consolidating political power, and had no time to take care of others, which gave the following week a good opportunity for development--not only could he embark on the road of great unification without distraction, but also could develop with peace of mind, accumulate strength, and prepare for the Northern Expedition to recover Yanyun Sixteen Prefectures.
The ability to manage the army is outstanding, the strategic objectives are clear, and the external prestige is outstanding
Chai Rong was a very strategic and military-literate monarch, during his reign, he conquered the north and south, defeated the Northern Han and Khitan alliance at the Battle of Gaoping, and consolidated his power; he conquered Later Shu in the west and recovered the four prefectures of Qin, Feng, Cheng, and Jie; and personally conquered the Southern Tang, forcing Li Yu to go to the emperor and become the lord of the country. He personally conquered five times in his life, shocking the world, so that the five generations and ten kingdoms that were falling apart showed a trend of great unification.
What is even more rare is that Chai Rong not only knows how to fight wars, but his ability to govern the army and his strategic vision are also superior; he has learned the lesson of "not having to use his life and soldiers cannot fight" in the Battle of Gaoping, straightening out the military and government, not only reorganizing the forbidden army, "selecting the best ones as the classes before the palace," building the forbidden army into an army with strong combat effectiveness, rectifying military discipline, and punishing the worship officers who "kill civilians by smuggling themselves" and the general Zuo Yulin who "took a lot of money and wasted money."
At the same time, he also adopted the suggestion of the chancellor Wang Pu to "attack the way, starting from the change", and formulated the strategic goal of "first south and then north", which later became the strategic policy of the Northern Song Dynasty to unify the Central Plains.
Strive to govern, and the ability of civil rule is extraordinary
During Chai Rong's short reign of six years, the politics were clear, the meritocrats were able, the people lived and worked in peace and contentment, and the people's livelihood and economy were greatly improved.
He selected talents, corrected the shortcomings of the imperial examination, punished corrupt officials and corrupt officials, humbly asked for advice, and for a time the politics of the Zhou Dynasty were clear, and the atmosphere of the court was greatly improved;
He restricted Buddhism, destroyed bronze statues and cast copper coins, provided relief to the people, ordered monks and nuns to return to the world, and liberated labor;
He set up the land endowment, promulgated the "Juntian Map", built water conservancy, dredged the river, changed the water transport, increased the productive forces, and greatly improved the strength of the country;
He revised the "Tongli" and "Zhengle", vigorously promoted culture and education, attached importance to etiquette and religion, strengthened the construction of national culture, and restored the civilizational order that had collapsed for five generations;
He attached great importance to system building, revised the Criminal Law, promulgated the Great Zhou Penal System, rectified the court, and changed the unhealthy trends of the past five generations;
He appeased exile, reduced taxes, and gave back the people a place of comfort, so that the people could live and work in peace and contentment;
This series of measures not only enabled the Later Zhou Dynasty to achieve a great improvement in a short period of time, but also deeply affected the later Northern Song Dynasty.
As the decisive figure in ending the wars and chaos of the Five Dynasties and Ten Kingdoms for many years, Chai Rong not only let people see the hope that the chaotic world was about to end, but also let people see a wise and divine monarch like Tang Taizong and Emperor Wu of Han. Therefore, regardless of whether Chai Rong's Northern Expedition at that time could be successful, as long as he was given another thirty years, it was very promising to take Yanyun Sixteen Prefectures and create the glory of the Han and Tang Dynasties again.
As Zhu Yuanzhang commented on Chai Rong: "The king of the three generations has his own time to do it, Han Wen has a time to do it, and Zhou Shizong does not have his own time to do it." "Chai Rong is the one who can reverse the situation and can do what people can't do."
References: History of the Old Five Dynasties, History of the Song Dynasty, etc