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Avoid strategic surprises: Watch out for lurkers!
Reasons for this article recommendation
We often say that a good plan is half the battle, which shows the importance of planning in everyone's mind, but this article tells us from another perspective: sometimes the more detailed the plan will tie the team to the wrong assumptions and cause the project to deviate from the right track, and experienced project managers often cancel the detailed plan in favor of a rough roadmap that contains only the most important milestones. The rise of agile in industries outside of IT shows that more and more organizations are realizing the need for an adaptive approach rather than rigorous long-term planning. This article tells us in detail how to constantly update our understanding of the project and the world without a detailed plan, and the perspective is unique!
The most challenging surprises in a strategic project are those that are hidden from people's sight from the start.
Usually, we talk about two types of surprises in strategic projects: those that hit you like a thunderbolt on a sunny day, and those that creep up on you and get you off track little by little. Both types require a specific management approach – effective contingency planning and crisis response for the former and improved monitoring and detection of the latter. However, when we began investigating accidents in projects by holding workshops with project and strategy practitioners and analyzing the academic literature, we discovered a third type of accident: lurkers!
We have observed that the most disturbing surprises are those that are hidden in people's sight from the beginning. They have nothing to do with the slowly deteriorating environment that derailed the project, nor with the unforeseen (or potentially foreseeable but forgotten) events that raided the project. The potential surprises have to do with the general or fundamental assumptions we make about the world, the project, or what we make — assumptions that later turn out to be wrong.
These basic assumptions led to the plan being flawed from the start. You think it's just a simple IT project, but you don't see what it really means: a disorganized project of change that affects an entire organization. You think it's just your average construction project, but in reality, it's incredibly complicated. Or: You think your Korean engineers and their Danish colleagues share the same project management philosophy – however, your "standard" label and name have completely different meanings for both groups.
These types of accidents, flawed assumptions about what the world is like are all too common — but difficult to manage. The problem with these potential surprises is that they are the basis of how we plan, what we plan, and how we perceive deviations from plans. As a foundation, you can't simply change these assumptions without creating cascading effects in the project or organization.
Changing really basic assumptions about who we are and what we do is painful and unnatural for most of us. So when things start to get worse, organizations often jump out of the familiar but wrong pitfall and ask ," how can we get back on track?" Instead of exploring the painful question: "Should we be on the right track?" ”。 Or, we start blaming others for their stupidity in their actions instead of questioning whether they see the world more clearly than we do. Eventually, when fundamental assumptions within a project or organization change, this can sometimes come very close to a shift to a new belief — and the mind spins.
Overall, we see that correcting these assumptions occurs through a roller coaster of misplaced understanding within the organization, creating a chaotic phase in which time, resources, and motivation are lost. So, what can you do?
Let's start with the bad news: more plans won't save you. Sure, you'll make more effort on the front end to identify and solve more problems; however, too much planning can have unexpected side effects. The more you plan, the more ingrained you are in the assumptions surrounding the plan, the more emotional attachment you will develop to the plan, and as a result, the harder it becomes to challenge (wrong) assumptions and make the plan disappear. Instead of seeing the plan as its essence —an idea of the future—we began to see it as the blueprint the world should have. As a result, experienced project managers often report that they have eliminated detailed planning in favor of a rough roadmap that contains only the most important milestones. The rise of agile in industries other than IT shows that more and more organizations are realizing the need for an adaptive approach rather than rigorous long-term planning.
So, what if there are no more plans? As with challenging management questions, the answers are often related to culture and communication – and there are no simple technical solutions. To avoid being surprised by flawed underlying assumptions, you must empower your organization to constantly update your understanding of the world, whether as an individual or as a team or group. To this end, ask yourself the following questions:
Do you understand the assumptions of your entire organization?
Over time and gossip, some people's assumptions become perceived facts for others. In our workshops, we observed that project teams often have very different views on the criticality of a project than their managers.
What are the false assumptions you most stubbornly defend?
What does it take to overcome them? Many organizations have developed their own set of specific blind spots, making them particularly vulnerable.
How are opinion leaders distributed within your organization?
Does a minority choose normative interpretations of projects, organizations, or the world that are not being challenged—or does your organization provide room for competing assumptions? We often find that at least some people in the organization disagree with the dominant narrative, but are not heard until worse.
How do you deal with errors?
Are people in organizations — whether for their careers or for their emotional health — safe to admit that they have false assumptions? Or is it worse to admit that you're wrong than wrong – as long as you can continue to blame others?
We've published a (free) workshop guide that collects the best practices for us and the organizations we work with to manage unexpected practices. It is designed to help you identify specific action points to improve your planning, monitoring, and communication practices.
Finally, there is good news: in our experience, effective ways to identify and manage accidents are as diverse as the accidents themselves. But putting this topic on the agenda allows you to avoid — and better manage — the unexpected.
Original English text
The most challenging surprises in strategic projects are those that have been hiding in plain sight from the beginning.
Usually, we talk about two types of surprises in strategic projects: those that hit you like a flash out of a blue sky, and those that creep up on you, nudging you off track, bit by bit. Either type requires a specific approach to manage – efficient contingency plans and crisis response for the former, improved monitoring and detection for the latter. However, when we started to investigate surprises in projects by running workshops with project and strategy practitioners and analysing the academic literature, we discovered a third class of surprises: the lurkers!
We observed that the most bothersome surprises were those that had been hiding in plain sight from the beginning. They were not related to a slowly deteriorating environment that leads the project off course, nor where they unforeseen (or maybe foreseen but forgotten) events that suddenly strike the project. Lurking surprises relate to general or fundamental assumptions that we make about the world, the project, or us – assumptions that later turned out to be wrong.
These fundamental assumptions lead to plans that are flawed from the beginning. You thought it was just a straightforward IT project and failed to see what it really is: a messy change project that affects the whole organisation. You thought it was just your run-of-the-mill construction project, but actually, it is unusually complex. Or: you thought that your Korean engineers had the same ideas of project management as their Danish colleagues – yet, your ‘standard’ labels and names bear entirely different meanings for those two groups.
These types of surprises, flawed assumptions about what the world is like, are incredibly common – but very hard to manage. The problem with these lurking surprises is that they lie at the foundation of how we plan, for what we plan, and how we perceive deviations from the plan. Being that fundamental, you cannot simply change these assumptions without creating a cascade of effects in the project or organisation.
Changing a truly fundamental assumption about who we are and what we do is painful and does not come natural to most of us. Thus, when things start to deteriorate, organisations often bark up the familiar, yet wrong tree, asking “How can we get back on track?”, rather than exploring the painful question: “Should we even be on that track?”. Or, we start blaming the stupidity of the actions of others, rather than questioning whether they might see the world more clearly than we do. When, eventually, fundamental assumptions change within a project or organisation, this sometimes comes critically close to converting to a new faith – and heads will roll.
Overall, we saw that rectifying these assumptions happens through a rollercoaster of misaligned understandings within organisations, producing phases of confusion in which time, resources, and momentum are lost. So what can you do?
Let us start with a piece of bad news: more planning will not save you. Certainly, you will identify and address a few more issues by more diligence in the front end; however, too much planning creates unintended side effects. The more you plan, the more entrenched you get in the assumptions around the plan, the more emotionally attached to the plan you will be, and in consequence, the harder it will become challenge (wrong) assumptions and let the plan go. Instead of treating the plan as what it is – an idea about the future – we start treating it as a blueprint for what the world is supposed to be. Experienced project managers therefore often report that they abolish detailed planning in favour of rougher road maps featuring only the most important milestones. The rise of agile in industries beyond IT indicates that more and more organisations realise the need for adaptive methods, rather than rigorous long-term planning.
So what to do instead, if not plan more? The answer, as so often for challenging managerial issues, relates to culture and communication – and does not have a simple technical solution. To avoid being surprised by flawed fundamental assumptions, you have to enhance your organisation’s capabilities to continuously update your understanding of the world, both as individuals and as teams or groups. To do so, ask yourself the following:
Are you even aware of the assumptions held across the organisation?
l Over time and whispered through the grapevine, assumptions of some become the perceived facts of others. In our workshops, we observed that the project teams often had diametrically different perceptions than their managers regarding what makes the project critical.
What were the faulty assumptions that you defend most tenaciously?
l What was necessary to overcome them? Many organisations develop their own set of specific blind spots that make them particularly vulnerable.
How is opinion leadership distributed within your organisation?
l Do a few select individuals create a canonical interpretation of the project, the organisation, or the world, which goes unchallenged – or does your organisation provide room for competing assumptions? Often we discovered that at least some people in the organisation did not agree with the dominant narrative yet were not heard until worse comes to worst.
How do you cope with being wrong?
l Is it safe for people in your organisation – both for their career and their emotional wellbeing – to admit that they have had wrong assumptions? Or is admitting that you are wrong worse than being wrong – as long as you can keep blaming others?
We have published a (free) workshop guide that collects the practices that worked the best for us and the organisations we worked with to manage surprises. It is designed to help you discover specific action points for improving your planning, monitoring, and communication practices.
A bit of good news at the end: In our experience, effective ways to identify and manage surprises are as varied as surprises themselves. But putting the topic on the agenda gets you halfway to avoiding – and better managing – surprises.
Such a beautiful article
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