"Military Sub-Plane" author: I am Ivan the Great
According to the Global Times, on November 16, police in Kuandian Manchu Autonomous County, Dandong City, Liaoning Province, issued a "Notice of Assistance in Investigation" to Zhu Mou, a foreign prisoner who escaped from Jilin Prison on October 18. In this "Notice", the Kuandian police stipulate the latest reward amount for the foreign prisoner Zhu Mou, and reward 700,000 yuan for providing clues to Zhu Mou's whereabouts and assisting the police in directly catching the criminal.
Latest Bounty Announcement
Two days ago, on November 14, the police in Jilin City, Jilin Province, in a joint investigation notice, had just raised Zhu's reward to 500,000 yuan, and in just a few days, the reward amount increased by 200,000 yuan. Compared with the original bounty of 100,000 yuan, it has increased sevenfold, and for the pursuit of fugitives, Ivan has seen it before, but it is the first time that we have seen such a big battle as Zhu Mou.
Previous bounty notices
However, I believe that many readers have heard this huge amount of "700,000 yuan" and are already gearing up and eager to try, so they are ready to drill into the deep mountains and old forests in the northeast, seize this fugitive Zhu Mou, and hand it over to the public security organs for the 700,000 yuan. But Ivan the Great must first emphasize one sentence: Everyone must pay attention to the statement in the "Notice of Cooperation" issued by the public security organs separately, more than one "Circular" clearly states that this foreign prisoner Zhu Mou has committed a bad crime, has certain military skills, may hold a murder weapon or commit another crime, and has a high degree of social danger.
The judgment on Zhu Mou on the Chinese judgment documents online
Therefore, Ivan believes that we still don't want to get away with this strong, if someone finds out the whereabouts of this Zhu, first of all, we must ensure their own safety, and then contact the public security organs in time to deal with it, and do not rush forward and confront him head-on. After all, on the one hand, people "have certain military skills", on the other hand, they belong to extrajudicial fanatics who take the road and flee, and if they really fight, I am afraid that most civilians will suffer losses, and when the time comes, don't spend this 700,000 yuan bounty with no life, which is not worth it.
Zhu's personal situation
Compared with the "seven hundred thousand yuan" that may make many people's eyes shine, it is estimated that most people are more curious about how this foreign prisoner Zhu Mou "ran out", where he "may be hiding" for more than a month, and the possible direction of escape in the future .5. Judging from the situation in the past month, there is a lot of true and false information surrounding this foreign criminal, one moment saying that this person is an elite soldier of the elite special forces of a certain country on the Korean Peninsula, and the other saying that this person has crossed the vast Mongolian Gobi and entered the territory of the Eastern Province of Mongolia. So, what is the real situation of this foreign prisoner Zhu Mou?
Zhu Mou's physical fitness
According to the situation that has been made public so far, Ivan feels that many of the situations of zhu mou, a fugitive, are indeed more complicated than we judged at the beginning, but they are not complicated to any extent: Zhu was born in 1982, and is now close to 40 years old, and has been serving sentences in prison since 2014, that is, at the age of 32.
Climb the iron gate more than 6 meters high with your bare hands
First of all, Zhu does seem to have served in the country's army, but considering that the country implements a universal compulsory military service system, adult men generally start military service from the age of 18 (about 2000 for Zhu), and it is indeed more normal for Zhu to have this experience. At the same time, he is not an "elite special forces soldier" as rumored on the Internet, because Zhu Mou was sent to a coal mine in a county in the north of the Korean Peninsula as a miner for some reason in 2004, and the total service period is estimated to be about four years, and it is estimated that he has just risen to the rank of middle soldier or superior soldier. During the four-year period of service, it is of course fine to say that it is okay to polish the bones, but to become an omnipotent "elite special forces soldier" in the upper world and the sea, Ivan the Great believes, this statement is obviously exaggerated.
After destroying the power grid, jump off the 4-story fence
Therefore, from the video published on the Internet and Zhu Mou's escape from prison, it is not so much that Zhu's service experience in the country's army has helped him "a big favor", but rather that this person has been engaged in heavy physical labor for a long time. After all, after four years as a soldier and nine years as a miner, the physical fitness of the fugitive Zhu Mou far exceeded that of ordinary pampered people, such as flipping through iron doors with bare hands and jumping down from several upper floors.
Zhu's way of acting
Since the life experience of the fugitive Zhu Mou is not so mysterious, his escape route and possible escape methods, Ivan believes, is not as mysterious as many people say: for example, as previously rumored, it is said that Zhu Mou crossed the vast Daxing'anLing Forest Sea, walked through the Mongolian plateau, and entered the territory of Mongolia, which is very low.
After all, even if Zhu is a special forces soldier, it is absolutely impossible to carry out such a long-distance march in the absence of professional equipment and insufficient food supplies. Not to mention, at the end of last month and the beginning of this month, northern China just experienced a cold wave, with heavy snow falling in the eastern part of the northeast and lower temperatures in the Daxing'an Mountains and the Mongolian plateau. If Zhu Mou runs to the northwest without adequate preparation, or even enters the forest area and desert no man's land, he is afraid that he will not be able to walk tens of kilometers at all, and he will freeze to death outside because of the lack of temperature of the human body and the lack of food.
Jin Ruchao, the main culprit of the "3.16 Mega Bombing Case"
In fact, the way Zhu Mou escaped in the past month reminded Ivan of the escape method of Jin Ruchao, the main criminal of the "3.16 mega bombing case" in Shijiazhuang in 2001, which the professor of investigation had talked about in the classroom before. After committing the crime, Jin Ruchao predicted that the local police would inevitably set up jams and interception at major intersections, and also predicted that the police throughout the country would inevitably mobilize in an all-round way to strengthen patrols and inspections on major national highways and stations and docks. Therefore, Jin Ruchao acted according to several principles when he escaped, one was to avoid the main road and concentrate on picking up rural trails; the other was to avoid using motor vehicles or taking means of transportation, but he could walk on foot, ride a bicycle when he could ride, never get on the bus in a black car, and bypass the checkpoints laid by the public security organs.
The "Sky Eye" system has been gradually improved
This mode of action is no longer easy to use before the current strength of the public security organs, and may only be suitable for some high-IQ criminals in the "pre-information" era. However, this time, the fugitive Zhu Mou, he is "good" and "good", and his previous lifestyle is very "pre-informational", which in turn makes his actions in the past month away from the new type of investigation and control methods that many public security organs can use at present and can greatly improve work efficiency, that is to say, he just walks in the "blind zone" of the public security organs.
For example, as pointed out in the public security organ's notice, Zhu may rely on stealing things and picking up things to maintain his life, not using mobile phones or scanning two-dimensional codes, and may use abandoned buildings, walking rural trails and back streets and alleys to operate and stay. On a social media, there are also respondents who say that Zhu ran to the wedding feast in the countryside to eat and drink, and as a result, he was recognized by the local villagers with sharp eyes and had to run away quickly, etc., all of which show that after Zhu escaped from prison, the escape strategy he adopted was to "minimize contact with society". Without contact with society, naturally there will be no intersection of data, and without the intersection of data, it will not be easy for the public security organs to find him.
Typical North Korean face
Ivan the Great does not know whether Zhu's way of acting is a last resort or whether he has been premeditated during his prison sentence, but his escape method has indeed caused certain trouble to the public security organs' current pursuit. At the same time, in the view of Ivan the Great, this kind of "trouble" is not so much caused by Zhu's service experience as it is determined by Zhu's lifestyle.
Zhu's possible trajectory of action
Since Zhu is still missing at present, it is estimated that by patrolling and controlling alone, if you want to copy Zhu out, you can only see how luck it is, then, where may Zhu's escape direction be, and where may this person end up "overturning"? From the perspective of criminal psychology, since Zhu Mou's escape, including jumping off the building, overturning the iron door, destroying the power grid, and breaking through the barbed wire, are methodical, this shows that he has obvious premeditation for his escape.
With a single rope, the power grid is destroyed
In the case that the escape act itself was premeditated, in terms of the direction and purpose of escape after escaping from the prison area, it is difficult to say that Zhu Mou was not premeditated. Under the premise of ensuring that he can evade the police pursuit, Zhu Mou must have a relatively clear action goal, what is the "action goal" of the escaped criminal? There are about three points, one is a place that can ensure their own safety, such as a safe house, such as a family and friends; the second is to go home directly, which does not necessarily ensure their own safety, and is often driven by the endogenous factors of the fugitive; the third is to retaliate against the victim, which is based on the retaliatory psychology of the criminal.
For the fugitive Zhu Mou, he is a foreign prisoner, want to find a safer "safe house" in the country, this is unlikely, and to "retaliate" against the victim, it is estimated that in the past so many years he can not find where he committed the crime. Therefore, Ivan the Great personally believes that there are several possibilities for Zhu's whereabouts:
The picture of the Changbai Mountains in winter in the TV series "Double Detective"
The first is to "go home directly", which means that he has to go east, and in the case that the Yalu River and the Tumen River are about to freeze, and in the case that Zhu Mou himself has a previous record of sneaking across the border, the possibility of "going home" does exist;
Although Zhu has no relatives and friends in China, it is said that this person was sent to work in the coal mine in 2004 because some of his family fled to South Korea, and these relatives and friends in foreign countries may also have certain contacts with Zhu.
Of course, because we do not understand the relevant case facts, it is even more inconvenient to say more about the investigation measures of the public security organs, here is only a little to say, or that sentence, if there are readers in the northeast who see the whereabouts of this fugitive Zhu Mou, do not come hard, immediately report to the public security organs. Finally, I hope that the public security organs can bring Zhu Mou, a fugitive foreign criminal, to justice at an early date.