Li Yang: There are three new issues in the field of employment that deserve attention

Reporter Xin Yuan

Li Yang, member of the Faculty of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences and chairman of the National Finance and Development Research Office, said at the China Macroeconomic Forum a few days ago that from the statistical point of view, the overall situation of employment this year is good, but there are three new problems worthy of attention.

The first is the increased employment pressure on the youth population. He pointed out that since the beginning of this year, the unemployment rate of urban youth aged 16-24 has remained high, and the unemployment problem of college and above personnel aged 20-24 is particularly prominent. According to the National Bureau of Statistics, in October, the urban survey unemployment rate was 4.9%, unchanged from the previous month, of which the unemployment rate of the population aged 16-24 was 14.2%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month.

Secondly, the marginal effect of entrepreneurship on driving employment is slowing down. According to the research of Li Yang's team, at present, the average number of new jobs in cities and towns corresponding to the 10 new market entities is 5, down 4 from 2015.

The third question, he pointed out, is that the labor market faces multiple imbalances and mismatch between supply and demand, such as the overall contraction of employment opportunities in high-energy-consuming industries, and the sharp decline in employment opportunities in off-campus training and real estate sales and intermediary industries.

For these new problems in the job market, Li Yang said that the development of small and micro enterprises is very important, and we must realize that under the new mode of economic production, in the society with service as the main body, small enterprises are the main body, not the supplement of large enterprises, and the two can complement each other.

"Small and micro enterprises have always been the main body of employment, but also the main body of innovation, and real innovation, especially subversive innovation, basically comes from small enterprises." Li Yang said.

He further pointed out that an important task in China's macroeconomic regulation and control in the future is to create conditions for the development of the new employment situation. "The core lies in increasing investment in human capital, lifelong learning is indispensable, in addition, to vigorously develop the platform economy, which will vigorously broaden the market boundaries and make it more convenient for vulnerable groups to participate in market transactions." He said.

In addition to employment, Li Yang also mentioned the debt problem in his speech. As of the second quarter of this year, he said, global debt totaled $296 trillion, or 355 percent of global gross domestic product, up 35 percentage points from 2019. Based on the world's 7.5 billion people, the per capita debt is more than $39,400.

Li Yang pointed out that whether at home or abroad, debt is an urgent problem that all countries in the post-epidemic era need to deal with. From a foreign perspective, the Federal Reserve officially announced a plan to reduce bond purchases in early November, and is expected to completely stop bond purchases in mid-2022.

"If it is a (Fed) expansion of the balance sheet, in general, the negative impact is not much, the expansion of the balance sheet will make the flow of funds into developing countries, conducive to local investment, the cost of funds will improve." But if the balance sheet is reduced, the situation is just the opposite, a large number of funds will escape from these emerging economies, the cost of funds, interest rates will also rise, there will be a great impact on these countries, China must be prepared, this is next year's macroeconomic regulation and control must face a problem. He said.

From a domestic point of view, Li Yang said that it is necessary to pay attention to the problem of mutual spillover of fiscal and financial risks. "In the past, local governments borrowed money directly from financial institutions, and later changed to allow local governments to issue bonds, but after issuing bonds, they were held by financial institutions... This has led to the financialization of fiscal policy, resulting in an increase in the spillover of fiscal risks and financial risks. ”

According to research by Li Yang's National Finance and Development Research Office, in the first three quarters of this year, China's macro leverage ratio fell by 5.3 percentage points to 264.8%. Among them, the leverage ratio of residents was basically stable, falling by a total of 0.1 percentage points in the first three quarters; the leverage ratio of the non-financial enterprise sector fell by 5.1 percentage points for five consecutive quarters; the government leverage ratio fell by 0.1 percentage points, and the new debt in the whole year may be less than the budget deficit.

Li Yang said that special attention should be paid to the sharp decline in corporate leverage ratio. "The last thing we want is for companies to reduce their debt because they have no investment targets, because they are unwilling to expand production. We are also very sorry to see that since the beginning of this year, the leverage ratio of the non-financial sector has fallen a lot because of the reluctance of residents to consume, which must arouse vigilance. ”