100,000 soldiers massing on the Russian-Ukrainian border? Expert: Russia may use the current situation to manipulate crisis strategies

The Paper's reporter Liu Hui

Following Russia's alleged increased land, sea and air deployment along Ukraine's borders in April, relations between Russia and the European Union heated up in November over illegal immigration and energy supply issues along the Belarusian-Polish border, and the United States warned its EU allies that Russia might be considering invading Ukraine.

According to Reuters and other foreign media reported on November 15, north atlantic treaty organization (NATO) secretary general Stoltenberg met with Ukrainian Foreign Minister Kureba at the NATO headquarters in Brussels on the same day, saying that Russian troops have recently assembled on a large scale near the Ukrainian border, and NATO remains vigilant about it. He stressed: "NATO stands with Ukraine. ”

Ukrainian President Zelenskiy said in a recent video speech that nearly 100,000 Russian soldiers are currently stationed along the border and in the rebel-controlled eastern part of Ukraine. The Russian side stressed that Russia's military deployment on its territory is an internal matter. Russia denies any aggressive intent, while accusing U.S. warships of navigating the waters of the Black Sea close to its territory as a provocative move.

Is the situation on the Russian-Ukrainian border showing signs of deterioration again, is this a fictional crisis in the West or an impending confrontation? In an interview with the surging news (www.thepaper.cn), Feng Yujun analyzed that to understand the current situation on the Russian-Ukrainian border, it is necessary to link the global situation. As greater great power competition intensifies, the pressure on Russia itself has diminished considerably. Europe is also facing a lack of leadership caused by the imminent ouster of German Chancellor Angela Merkel, and the Kremlin is taking advantage of the current situation.

Russian troops massing on the Ukrainian border?

Since the beginning of this month, rumors of a massive buildup of Russian troops on the Ukrainian border have been rife. On November 1, the WEBSITE OF THE US "Politica" published a number of satellite images from the US space technology company Maxar Technologies, saying that these are all evidence of Russia's deployment of troops in the border area between Russia and Ukraine.

Russian President Vladimir Putin press secretary Peskov responded on Nov. 2 that the satellite images were "low-end revelations." He stressed that the so-called "border area with Ukraine" in the photo is actually Yelinia in Russia's Smolensk Oblast, which does not border Ukraine but borders Belarus.

On November 3, Ukraine's defense ministry "confirmed" that there were 90,000 Russian troops near its border. "I hope that the world can now see clearly who really wants peace, who has gathered nearly 100,000 soldiers on our border," Ukrainian President Zelenskiy said in a video of his speech released on his website on the 10th, and Western countries have shared information about the activities of Russian troops with Kiev.

At the same time, foreign media reported on the 11th that the United States has issued a warning to EU allies that Russia may be considering invading Ukraine. Reuters, citing multiple people familiar with the matter, reported that Washington was closely monitoring Russia's military build-up near the Ukrainian border, and that U.S. officials had informed their EU counterparts of concerns about possible military action.

Russia has not denied amassing troops on the border, only reiterating that it does not plan any military intervention against Ukrainian territory. Furthermore, Russia stresses its right to assemble forces within its territory. Russia's rebuttal of the Western interpretation is alarmist, while at the same time accusing NATO of its activities in the region is also increasing.

Despite Russia's clarification of speculation that it would launch an offensive against Ukraine, the West has not dispelled its concerns. Ukraine is gaining unprecedented Western support. According to the U.S. Embassy in Kiev, a new batch of U.S. defense aid arrived in Ukraine on the 15th, including nearly 80 tons of ammunition.

Stoltenberg promised on the 15th that "NATO stands with Ukraine" and that NATO is paying close attention to the situation on the Russian-Ukrainian border. NATO and its allies will continue to provide important political and practical support to Ukraine to help strengthen Ukraine's capabilities, including through training for Ukraine's armed forces.

The outgoing British Defense Chief of Staff Nick Carter issued a warning that britain might go to war with Russia on the 16th, a heavy statement that immediately shocked the security and military circles in Britain and Europe. Al Jazeera reported on the 16th that Nick Carter's statement also emphasized that the war is closer than ever and is driven by recent events in Eastern Europe, including the current immigration crisis on the White Polish border.

Russia and the West face off on multiple "battlefields"

In addition to the large-scale build-up of troops in the border area between eastern Ukraine and Russia, the United States and its allies are "training troops" in the Black Sea, which Russia has accused of being "provocative", and the migration crisis on the border between Belarus and Poland is still fermenting. Behind these problems, it is believed that Russia is competing with the West.

On the 11th, Putin said in a telephone talk with German caretaker chancellor Angela Merkel that some NATO countries led by the United States have recently become more and more frequent in the Black Sea region. And NATO's use of strategic aviation and the use of combat weapons in unplanned exercises in black sea waters is a major provocation to Russia that would destabilize the region. NATO, for its part, has argued that these are defensive exercises.

A report published by Al Jazeera on the 15th pointed out that political and economic research shows that the Black Sea may become the main battlefield of the world energy war in the future, especially as the region's current gravitational attraction on Russia, the United States and NATO continues to increase, and it is expected that the crisis will continue to escalate and turn into an unpopular conflict, and all parties are trying to avoid the consequences of such a conflict.

In eastern Europe, a large number of refugees have gathered in the border areas of Belarus with Poland, Lithuania and other EU countries in the past few days, exacerbating the political crisis between Belarus and the EU. Coupled with the fact that Russia and Belarus are deepening their political, economic and military integration in all aspects, Minsk's every move has been accused by the West of being inseparable from Moscow.

Feng Yujun told the surging news that perhaps the fear of Russia has increased sharply, and the German energy regulatory authorities have urgently suspended the certification process of the "Nord Stream-2" project on the 16th. Previously, Germany and Russia had been staunch supporters of the project, and Germany deliberately reached an agreement with the United States to ask the latter to lift sanctions and release the project.

Feng Believes Moscow is currently leveraging the recent situation to achieve its agenda, including further advancing the Russian-Belarusian Alliance, "intensifying" the situation in eastern Europe, and accelerating some changes within Ukraine.

"It's a fringe war strategy, creating crises and exploiting crises." But Russia also has a sense of crisis management, he said, "Putin will not let the crisis develop into an open conflict, or escalate to a state of uncontrolled state, similar to the plot of the Cuban Missile Crisis." ”

At the plenary session of the Valdai International Debate Club on October 21 this year, Putin delivered an 8,000-word speech that began with the Chinese proverb "It is better to be a peaceful dog than to be a chaotic person," and he also quoted the Chinese word "crisis" as meaning "danger" and "opportunity." "As we said in Russia, overcome difficulties with your mind and get out of danger with experience." He elaborated further.

Responsible Editor: Zhang Wuwei Photo Editor: Hu Mengxi

Proofreader: Luan Meng