21/22 crushing season at the beginning of zheng sugar on the stand above 5800 yuan, the sugar market ushered in a long-lost optimistic scene of industry-wide profitability, November 15 Zheng sugar main force up to 6157 yuan / ton, refreshing the new high since the beginning of 18 years, sugar prices reappeared 6000, sugar people rejoiced, new sugar concentrated in the imminent, spot can maintain such a high profit margin? Is there a new change in the structure of the white sugar weak reality strong expectation?
Northern sugar beet new sugar has been listed, the amount is small and the price is high
Sugar beet sugar factory has been started for nearly a month and a half, as of the end of October, Inner Mongolia has acquired more than 300,000 tons of vegetables. The cumulative sugar production of 187,000 tons, the new sugar spot quotation is mostly above 6,000 yuan, on the one hand, because the sugar beet production has been significantly reduced, the enterprises are reluctant to sell, on the other hand, the overall delay in the listing of domestic new sugar this year, the slowdown of imported sugar in stages, giving domestic sugar time and space to digest in the early stage of the crushing season, in the context of sugar prices of more than 6,000 yuan, although the amount of new sugar listed is not much, but the quotation and the price expectations in the later period are relatively optimistic, although the new sugar market volume of sugar beets in the later period will continue to increase, but the total production of sugar beets is expected to be reduced by more than 40%, and the price and sales will continue The market price and demand expectations of sugar beet new sugar before the large-scale concentration of sugarcane new sugar are relatively optimistic, and will not bring pressure to the market, and will become an effective supplement to the market in the early fourth quarter.
Sugarcane has not yet been intensively squeezed, and the balance of aged sugar is small
In the 20/21 crushing season, Guangxi carried forward industrial stocks of 764,100 tons, and it is expected that the current balance of aged sugar is only 100,000-200,000 tons, and the price is about 5780-5820 yuan / ton, up 470 yuan / ton over the same period last year.
Most of the sugar mills in Guangxi this year are expected to be squeezed after November 25, a year-on-year delay of one to two weeks, the pace of new sugar listings was delayed, the total number of listings in November was also significantly reduced year-on-year, in the early stage of beet listing, especially in the context of the large reduction in sugar beet production, sugarcane new sugar did not effectively replenish the market in time, and the total balance of old sugar was also low. Yunnan's outbound shipments in October increased year-on-year, as of now, november's outbound shipments are expected to be better than in October, the overall sales situation is more positive, the progress of destocking of old sugar has accelerated, yunnan as a whole has been squeezed relatively late, and the listing of new sugars is relatively late. Therefore, the domestic sugar supply will not bring obvious pressure to the market in the later stage, but will bring unexpected space to the market because of changes in the pace of listing and supply.
Import dependence has increased, and marginal costs have increased
China's sugar market annual production and demand gap will continue to exist, the current number of domestic aged sugar and new sugar is not much, imported sugar has become an effective supplement to the current market, and the total amount of imports and rhythm is much higher than the expectations of the market in the previous quarters, especially in the fourth quarter of the alternating season of the new and old crushing seasons, imported sugar on the supply and demand pattern of domestic sugar and sugar price Impact weight is relatively the highest, for price disturbance is also greater, the current with the resonance of internal and external sugar prices rises, import costs increase accordingly, U.S. sugar 20 cents up and down, The cost of imported sugar at 50% tariff is around 6100-6300 yuan / ton, and the shock center of the cost and price center has moved up.
Figure: Sugar import prices in China
External factors are relatively optimistic
Whether it is the global sugar market or the domestic sugar market, the overall supply and demand gap is expected to exist, but the contradiction between supply and demand is relatively mild, there is no obvious contradiction in the short term in terms of fundamentals, the external influencing factors have increased, and the trend of bulk commodities is closely linked, the current domestic macro and industrial products market policy high pressure situation is still continuing, agricultural products have become the new investment hotspot of the fund, of which white sugar as a long-term fundamental expectations are optimistic and the value of relatively low investment targets the advantages are prominent, trading is significantly magnified, volatility is improved, Both the macroeconomic recovery after the epidemic and the long-term expectations of the demand structure are more optimistic. Relative to the weak reality of the domestic white sugar spot market, foreign sugar is relatively more optimistic, Brazil, the production of this large production country is facing the end, the focus will gradually transition to Thailand and India, the main Asian producing countries, before the new sugar concentrated listing, supply and demand expectations are relatively tight, the space to be expected is also relatively optimistic, which should pay attention to the risk point is the fluctuation of crude oil prices.
In summary, the contradiction between the weak reality of the spot in the sugar market and the strong expectation of futures has been repaired to a certain extent, the price shock center has moved up to dominate the market in the internal demand and external trend before the peak of concentrated squeezing, there is no new bright spot in short-term demand, the gap in the medium and long term still exists, the far-month rise continues, and the phased price range refers to the upper edge of the import cost.
This article originated from a German elite
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