Karaganov, a well-known Russian expert on international issues and an adviser to Putin, recently published a special article on the world situation, which emphasized that in today's world, China, the United States and Russia are each a pole in the world, and China may become the final winner in the next 10-15 years.
Karaganov
Karaganov argues that from now on, the West is gradually losing its absolute dominance in the world since the First Industrial Revolution, which is unprecedented. The current military power of the West is gradually declining, although this is relative, and our neighbor China is emerging as a very powerful military power.
After the collapse of the Soviet Union, the United States became the only superpower in the world, and it did whatever it wanted in the world and launched several wars in contact
Therefore, the foundation of the West's centuries-old world domination no longer exists, and the West's dominance of the world reached its peak in 1991 when the Soviet Union collapsed, and after the peak, it inevitably fell back, which is also very clear in the minds of Western politicians, so in recent years the West has begun to make a fierce response in the economic, diplomatic, and military aspects, such as the use of sanctions, interference and other means.
China's rapidly rising military power worries the United States, but these are the foundations of our national security
It has to be said that now the West is more than enough in the face of China and Russia, and the United States cannot unilaterally deal with China or russia, so it has brought many small allies to cheer behind the United States, but the United States is not satisfied with this, and also tries to play the old trick of the United Russia resistance, but Russia, which has suffered a big loss from the United States, has not been deceived, so the United States has begun to contain China and Russia.
This old trick of the United Russia resistance to China is really unnecessary, and Russia has been fooled by the United States, so naturally it will not be fooled again
However, the impact of U.S. containment on China is not devastating, and China's ultimate goal is to achieve the "great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation," not to pursue world hegemony like the United States, and in the days to come, China will only accumulate strength and will not be as aggressive in the world as the United States. And China is also very important to Russia, which wants to maintain friendly relations between China and Russia, which is beneficial to the two peoples, both in the short and long term.
The closeness of Sino-Russian relations contributes to world peace
Karaganov also believes that since the end of World War II in 1945, the United States has played a lot of bad chess and made many strategic mistakes, which cannot be recovered so far.
The first is that the United States became a superpower after World War II by taking advantage of the fruits of the Soviet Union's victory, which is true, from 1941 to 1944.6 in Europe, the Soviet Union fought against German fascism alone, and the Soviet Union pushed all the way from the Soviet-German border to Berlin and killed the beast of German fascism, and paid the price of more than 20 million people. But the United States seemed to be the winner of the battle, taking full credit for defeating Germany and then succeeding in establishing itself by dismantling the British and French colonial systems with the Soviet Union.
Soviet soldiers in the Battle of Berlin, after the collapse of the Soviet Union, the United States won the credit for defeating Germany, as evidenced by Trump's tweet on May 9 last year
By the end of the Cold War between the United States and the Soviet Union and the collapse of the Soviet Union, the United States had become the world's only superpower. Therefore, the United States believes that it is the first in the world, has no one in sight, and in the more than 20 years after the 90s, it has made frequent moves, first forcing Russia to become a strategic opponent of the United States, and then launching two wars of aggression against Afghanistan and Iraq, which seriously hindered the development of the United States.
The two wars in Afghanistan and Iraq have cost the United States trillions of dollars and thousands of people, and the losses are not terrible
After entering the new century, China's comprehensive national strength has increased rapidly, and the rise in economic strength and military strength has made the United States sit like a needle in the haystack and like a fish in the throat, so in order to prevent china from overtaking and uniting with Russia to form a threat to the United States, the United States made a desperate bet to strike hard at China and Russia, but this move was self-defeating, making Sino-Russian relations closer and more united, the United States is lifting a stone to drop its own feet, and to the Biden administration it still looks the same, and there is no change.
The strength of the Chinese navy is also growing steadily, and it is expected that in another 10-15 years it will be able to break the blockade of the U.S. island chain and bankrupt its strategy of containing China at sea
With the steady advancement of Sino-Russian relations and the rise of China's military and economic strength, the United States will not be able to stop China's rise in the next 10-15 years, because the cost of containing China has become too high and the efficiency has become low, and the United States may be sober and develop a more pragmatic relationship with China.
And China will be the final winner of the struggle, after all, the United States will completely declare failure in the encirclement and suppression of China and Russia, of course, there is also a premise, that is, there is no big problem within China and Russia, so the time pattern will still be three-legged. As for whether Europe and India can rise to become the world's fourth largest power, that is a later story.