A few days ago, Chinese Bank released some financial data, and separately announced personal housing loan data, what is the meaning of this move? Does it have an impact on the trend of the steel market in the later period?
Ge Xin, deputy director of lange steel research center, said that in fact, the financial data released by the central bank conveyed several important information. First of all, from the perspective of credit and social financing growth, it has begun to stabilize, and the amount of new RMB loans and the increase in the scale of social financing in the month of October have decreased significantly from the previous month, but they have increased year-on-year, which shows that the central bank has maintained a reasonable and moderate strategy for a prudent monetary policy. And in October, the pace of local bond issuance is accelerating, and the financial support for key projects is increasing, although it is not as good as market expectations, but it plays a more obvious role in supporting the infrastructure industry.
In October, the central bank rarely released the balance data of personal housing loans, which shows that the central bank's policy of maintaining the healthy development of the real estate market is landing, and the recent real estate loan investment of financial institutions is also significantly accelerated, which will help alleviate the financial pressure of the real estate industry, while promoting the progress of real estate project construction and the promotion of newly started projects.
For a long time, the development and construction of real estate has had a great impact on steel demand. According to relevant statistics, China's construction steel accounts for about 50% of the entire steel consumption, of which real estate construction steel accounts for more than 50% of the entire construction steel. Driven by the rapid development of the real estate industry for more than 10 years, the demand for steel has been rising.
However, in recent years, the state's control over the real estate industry has been continuously strengthened, from purchase restrictions, loan restrictions, three red lines, and then to the real estate tax pilot, each regulation is a big shock to the real estate industry.
This year's real estate investment and sales situation as a whole showed a continuous weakening state. It can be seen from the economic data released by the National Bureau of Statistics that the growth rate of both real estate investment and commercial housing sales has fallen sharply this year, which has led to weak demand for construction steel. Taking Beijing as an example, according to the monitoring data of Lange Steel Cloud Business Platform, in October, the average daily shipments of 10 large households of Beijing Building Materials were 6717 tons, which was 3308 tons lower than the average daily shipments in October last year, a drop of 33%.
In the state of continuous weakening of steel demand, the news of the "loosening" of housing loans seems to inject a "cardiotonic agent" into the market, instantly igniting the market. The snail price, which was still plummeting on November 10, once rose and stopped intraday on November 11; it finally closed at 4443 yuan / ton, up 307 yuan / ton, an increase of 7.42%. However, this round of snail inflation did not continue, and the next day the snail once again fell by one hundred yuan per ton. It shows that the impact of the news on the market is no longer there, and the market confidence is insufficient.
Lange Steel Research Center Director Wang Guoqing said that the recent real estate in terms of financing has been somewhat loose, real estate credit environment improvement for the continued weakening of real estate will have a certain buffer effect, but in the early days of poor performance, winter construction restrictions and real estate sales fell sharply, the real estate industry will still show a weak trend in the next few months. Therefore, the "loosening" of housing loans has little impact on the steel market, and in the short term, the steel market may continue to shock and bottom out. (Lange Steel Press Center Peng Cuiting)