Long drought in Ganlin, his hometown encounters the old knowledge, the cave flower candle night, the golden list inscription, is considered to be the four great joys of the life of the ancients.
For the property market, there is nothing more exciting for them than the long drought.
Judging from the October financial data released by the central bank yesterday and the recent news released by some too difficult parties, the real estate market, which has been dry for more than half a year, has finally ushered in rain.
That is, the money is really coming.
There are three specific evidences:
1. Yesterday afternoon, the central bank released the financial data for October, of which at the end of October, the balance of personal housing loans of banking financial institutions was 37.7 trillion yuan, an increase of 348.1 billion yuan in the month, an increase of 101.3 billion yuan over September.
The sharp increase in the balance of personal housing loans means that in the past October, the bank's credit supply has increased, and people have begun to buy houses again.
According to data from the Shell Research Institute, banks in more than 20 cities have lowered mortgage interest rates in October, and many cities have begun to speed up lending.
This is the first time this year, because banks have tightened credit, mortgage interest rates have risen all the way, and the lending time has been extended to adjust market demand. Today, the situation has changed, which indicates that the bank's money for personal housing loans has increased.
What is even more interesting is that when the central bank released financial data yesterday, it actually listed the personal housing loan data separately and sent such a separate news.
This has not been done before.
Obviously, this is the intention of the central bank, using this action to tell the market, but also to remind everyone that the credit in the real estate market is improving.
At the end of February and October, the balance of broad money (M2) was 233.62 trillion yuan, an increase of 8.7% year-on-year, and the growth rate was 0.4 percentage points higher than the end of the previous month.
First, explain broad money.
M0, M1, M2 are the three definitions of the money supply.
M0 = cash in circulation; M1 = M0 + unit demand deposits that can be paid by cheque; M2 = M1 + resident savings deposits + unit time deposits + unit other deposits + securities company customer margin.
M2, you can simply understand the banknotes we print, M2 growth rate can be understood as the printing speed.
The faster we print money, the larger the scale of money printing, which means that the faster and greater the depreciation of our currency. One of the main drivers of China's rising housing prices over the past two decades is the devaluation of the currency, which means that we print too much money.
M2 growth was double-digit until 2016, and in some years it was even above 20%. Under such a growth rate, in 2016, the national housing prices opened an upward attack mode.
In 2019, under the background of the large regulation of the property market, the growth rate of M2 returned to single digits (below 10%), and last year, because of the epidemic, the growth rate returned to double digits again.
But after a strong recovery in the second half of last year, our printing rate began to decline, and by March this year it was back in single digits again.
Yesterday, the central bank released data showing that M2 growth reached 8.7% in October, the highest since April, and it accelerated for two consecutive months.
The speed of printing money is a major event directly related to the property market, although the current growth rate is still in single digits, but the growth rate has risen, the amount of water is increasing, which constitutes a very large positive for the property market.
3. The bond issuance financing of housing enterprises is being relaxed.
Since the end of October, from the central government to various places, the housing enterprises have taken turns to hold forums to understand their operating conditions and understand their DOLLAR debt.
The day before yesterday, the China Interbank Market Dealers Association held a forum for representatives of real estate enterprises.
These symposiums are all aimed at facilitating their financing. After all, under the three red lines and the centralized management system of real estate loans, housing enterprises have been extremely short of money.
In yesterday's article, I have said that under the three red lines and the centralized management system of real estate loans, in the context of the cold market turnover caused by the tightening of credit, the current housing enterprises, on the one hand, need to repay money to financial institutions, on the other hand, they cannot borrow money and cannot get money back.
For example, China Evergrande, Blu-ray Development, Taihe, Xinli Holdings, Huaxia Happiness, Fantasia, Sunshine City, Contemporary Real Estate, Kaisa, etc.
They used to be masters of playing with money and leveraging, and whoever admitted it is now worried about money. Sure enough, it is still that sentence, out of the mix, sooner or later it will be repaid.
Housing enterprises frequently have debt crises, which is of course relieved for ordinary people who cannot afford to buy a house due to high housing prices, but when the entire market is in a state of panic, the problems that follow are more difficult.
For example, because the capital chain of some housing enterprises is broken, many projects across the country have been shut down, and some have even appeared to be rotten.
Most home buyers, are betting on their own life or even three generations of a lifetime of financial resources, to buy a house, if the delay in delivery is still lucky, but if it encounters a rotten tail, or because of the problem of funds and shoddy, it is really tearless.
For example, housing enterprises because of the shortage of funds, has opened a large-scale discount promotion model, which makes many local cities headaches, because they stand up to the housing price stability target required by the management, must ensure that the house price can not have a large fluctuation, there have been many cities to open the limit mode, as of now, there have been 19 cities or directly or indirectly issued a "limit order".
For another example, because the debt of housing enterprises is at the top, funds are tight, land is already difficult to sell, and land finances in many cities are tight.
The second round of concentrated land supply in 22 cities that ended not long ago, most of the cities were auctioned in large areas. The streaming rate in Changsha and Beijing is more than 60%, and the shooting rate in Shenyang, Hangzhou and Guangzhou is above 50%.
According to the data, in August this year, the national land transfer income was 570.3 billion yuan, a sharp drop of 17.5% year-on-year, which is the largest decline since February 2020. In September 2021, the national land sales income was 652.4 billion yuan, down more than 10% from last year.
This makes many cities that rely on land finance very anxious, after all, the proportion of national land sales revenue to local government public finance revenue rose to 80% in 2020.
These thorny problems need to be solved, and the current financing problems of housing enterprises must be solved. Consecutive interviews with housing enterprises to hold symposiums are to come up with a suitable method that can alleviate their pressure without rekindling the market.
Judging from the news transmitted by the market, the current financing channels for housing enterprises to issue bonds are being relaxed, and today Poly has sent out news that it intends to issue 2 billion medium-term notes, which is a real hammer evidence for the relaxation of bond issuance by housing enterprises.
Under the stimulation of so many positive concentrations, the housing stocks in Hong Kong stocks and the housing enterprises in A-shares have ushered in a Jedi rebound in the past two days. Vanke rose 9.54 percent today, Sunac China 8.44 percent, Country Garden 5.39 percent and China Evergrande 6.75 percent.
整个房地产板块，目前已经筑底，开启强势反弹，微笑曲线雏形已现，地产股大反攻开始了。
The bottom of the capital market has emerged, and the bottom of the real estate transaction market will soon appear.
This number still maintains the previous view:
For many central cities with strong economic vitality and large population inflows, the end of the year to the first quarter of next year is a good time to get on the bottom.