Public examination common sense accumulation: what is "black swan" and "gray rhinoceros"

Concept: "Black swan" generally refers to those unexpected small probability high-risk events, once the impact is enough to subvert any previous experience, with unpredictability.

Source: Before Europeans discovered Australia, they always thought that swans were all white. However, after arriving in Australia, they actually found a black feathered swan, and it was this black swan that completely overturned the conclusion of the Europeans for thousands of years: it turned out that the swan was not only white, but also black!

Later, the famous American investor Taleb referred to the "black swan" event as an extremely rare and unpredictable event, but once it occurred, the impact was enough to subvert any previous experience.

Example: 1. The Asian financial crisis of 1997. After the Thai government announced that the Thai baht was decoupled from the dollar, the thai baht depreciated by nearly 20% on the same day. Subsequently, beyond expectations, it triggered the decline of the ringgit, the Singapore dollar, the Philippine peso, the Indonesian rupiah and so on. The financial crisis has devalued much of East Asia's currencies, plunged international stock markets, plunged the multinational social order into chaos, and even regime change.

2. The Titanic sank. The world's largest luxury passenger ship at the time was known as the "Unsinkable DreamLiner". No one thought it would sink. It sailed from Southampton, England, to New York on 10 April 1912, but sank on the night of the 4th night of its maiden voyage when it hit an iceberg in the North Atlantic. Due to the lack of enough lifeboats, 1500 people were buried on the bottom of the sea in this "black swan event", which became the most famous shipwreck to date.

3. The 9/11 incident. On the morning of September 11, 2001, just as americans were getting ready to start their day's work, terrorists hijacked four planes and crashed them into the World Trade Center in New York and the Pentagon in Washington, D.C. More than 3,000 people were killed in the black swan event, and the U.S. economy has since been paralyzed, with huge economic losses that cannot be counted in numbers. This is a typical black swan event that, unexpectedly, has a major impact.

Concept: "Grey Rhinoceros" is a metaphor for a potential crisis with high probability and great impact, which has the potential to change or change, and is predictable.

Source: The Grey Rhinoceros is a giant on the African continent, weighing 2-5 tons, it is usually mild-tempered, as long as it does not invade its territory or provoke it, it will basically not pose a threat to people or other animals. When you're traveling in the African savannah, you encounter a gray rhinoceros, and you step forward until you're close enough and take a good-angle photo of it, and you find the rhino rushing towards you, and the danger you face is called the "gray rhinoceros."

Examples: 1. The US subprime mortgage crisis. At that time, everyone knew that "subprime debt" was risky, but it was not taken seriously enough. Because of the high return on investment, "sub-bonds" have been sought after by investors for a considerable period of time and have performed stably. In 2007, house prices began to fall, and the risk of the "subprime" market broke out, and the risk was quickly transmitted to other markets, eventually resulting in an unprecedented global financial crisis.

1. People often use "black swan" events and "gray rhinoceros" events to describe different risks in the process of human social development. In the following statement, the characteristics of the "black swan" event are ( )

(1) Extremely rare and unexpected risks

(2) Be able to predict risks that people are even accustomed to

(3) Once it occurs, it will overwhelm the world and have a great impact on the outside world

(4) Occurrence is a long process, which can be detected at the beginning, but it is blind to people

A.①②

B.①③

C.②④

D.(1)(4)

【Analysis】B.

This question tests economic knowledge.

Black swan events are unpredictable and unusual events that usually cause negative reactions or even disruptions in the market chain. It generally has the following three characteristics: one is unexpected; the second is to have a significant impact; the third is that although it is unexpected, it makes up reasons for its occurrence after many events, and considers it more or less explainable and predictable. Black swans exist in financial markets, business, economy, personal life and other fields.

"Grey rhinoceros" and "black swan" complement each other, "grey rhino event" is too common a risk for people to take for granted, and "black swan event" is an extremely rare and unexpected risk.

So (1) (3) is consistent with the "black swan" event.

So the correct answer is B.