The worst happened.
2020 has only just begun, and three black swans have already arrived. If you don't come, you will fly in a pile. For the United States, for Japan, and for those soldiers in Taiwan, this New Year has been particularly heartfelt.
What is a Black Swan?
When we say black swans, of course, we do not mean black swans, but "black swan events".
Before the 17th century, Westerners thought that swans must be white, how could it be black? But when Westerners entered Australia and found black swans, that unshakable belief collapsed.
Thus, the black swan event refers to the unpredictable major event, which is unexpected but changes everything.
In general, black swan events have three major characteristics:
1, unexpected. It generally doesn't happen, and it happens unexpectedly.
2, impact. Once an incident occurs, it has a significant negative impact.
3. Predictability. It seems difficult to predict in advance, but after careful inquiry, it is found that it can actually be predicted and avoided.
But the worst result still happened, so it was even more difficult to take a breath of cool air.
Which three black swans will be in 2020?
The first was the Taiwan army's "Black Hawk Fall" and the "Chief of General Staff" who was killed.
Frankly speaking, this is not the first time that a black eagle has fallen, but this time is extraordinary, because there are still many senior generals of the Taiwan army on it, and the accident caused the death of many people including the "chief of staff" of the Taiwan army, which is also the "highest-ranking general in the history of the Taiwan army who died in the line of duty."
The weather is very good, the distance is very close, there are many big people on the plane, the person who drives the plane must be the best pilot in the military, the planned must be the most thorough and safe route, and the aircraft must have undergone the most meticulous and perfect maintenance.
Moreover, the Black Hawk helicopter is still a heavy purchase in Taiwan, a nearly 50 million US dollars, the performance should be very good.
But the black swan incident still happened, the plane was destroyed, and even the most important general of the Taiwan army was taken, just the next day in 2020.
After the incident, the Taiwan military suspended all Black Hawk helicopters.
The investigation is ongoing, but without thinking about it, we all know some possible causes:
1, if the Black Hawk helicopter itself has a problem, then the prior maintenance, there are major hidden dangers;
2, if the Black Hawk itself is not too much of a problem, it is likely that there is a problem with the pilot's operation, either too paralyzed and careless to cause the problem, or the level is not enough to cause the accident;
3, no matter what the reason, such a simple flight will have an accident, and even the top general has been taken to the end of the road, which can also show the overall combat level of the Taiwan army.
This, of course, has contingencies, but there is also inevitability in contingencies. Peeping leopard in the tube, you can see it!
The second black swan, the Americans were anxious, and the Baghdad embassy was in a hurry.
On the first day of 2020, the United States announced an urgent increase in troops to the Middle East.
U.S. Defense Secretary Esper put it this way: "About 750 soldiers will be immediately dispatched to the region, and the new force will be ready to be delivered within a few days." ”
One hundred thousand people are in a hurry, but this is far from enough. According to Fox Television, a rapid reaction brigade of 4,000 soldiers attached to the 82nd Airborne Division is preparing to be sent to Kuwait.
Americans are anxious because the last day of 2019 was spent at the U.S. Embassy in Iraq in extreme fear.
Hundreds of angry Iraqis besieged the U.S. Embassy, with its doors smashed open, glass smashed, reception areas burned, smoke billowing from the embassy, and U.S. servicemen forced to retreat to the roofs of the main building, guns pointed at protesters.
But once the gun is actually fired, the situation may be more unpredictable.
There is a reason for American fear.
On September 11, 2012, a group of militants suddenly besieged the U.S. Consulate General in Benghazi, Libya, where U.S. Ambassador stevens to Libya had no way to escape and was beaten to death. It was also the first time in 33 years that a U.S. ambassador abroad had died in an armed attack.
The anger of Iraqis is even more justified.
A few days ago, the United States launched airstrikes against "Allah Brigades" in Syria and Iraq on the grounds that an American contractor was killed, and in Iraq alone, three rounds of airstrikes killed at least 25 people and injured 55 others.
The land of Iraq, the Americans want to blow up, and, indiscriminately, blow up dozens of people. Iraq's anger was so completely ignited that the hula crowd immediately besieged the U.S. embassy.
The Americans then urgently increased their troops, and Trump aimed the spearhead at Iran, believing that Iran instigated the siege, so Iran will pay a heavy price. Trump said harshly: "This is not a warning, but a threat!" ”
If the threat had been countered, the Middle East would have been at peace.
When Saddam Hussein regime was overthrown, the United States considered itself a liberator and did have the support of many Iraqis; now, the United States has become the target of siege, and Iraqis have shouted "Get out of the United States."
The black swan at the end of the year fills American diplomats with fear and is bound to have a subtle impact on the situation in the Middle East.
The third black swan, Japan suffered the greatest humiliation of the New Year, and one of the most famous suspects escaped.
The most exciting Hollywood plot is also like this, and the best 007 is estimated to be at this level.
Anyway, Ghosn, the former Renault, Nissan and Mitsubishi super CEOs who were under house arrest, mysteriously disappeared from their home in Tokyo, where police surveillance was tight, and a few days later, the Japanese side learned that he had arrived in Lebanon.
Everything was dramatic: Ghosn was packed in a cello suitcase and managed to escape from the Tokyo mansion by a team who had come to perform; instead of going to the nearer Tokyo airport, the convoy drove 600 kilometers to Osaka's Kansai Airport in the middle of the night; where Ghosn crossed customs with a fake passport and boarded a private plane to reach Istanbul, Turkey; he then took another private plane and managed to escape to Lebanon.
Ghosn has a triple citizenship of Lebanon, Brazil and France. Lebanon and Japan do not have extradition treaties, and Lebanon has always regarded Ghosn as a hero. The 65-year-old car tycoon escaped.
This is truly the greatest humiliation of the Japanese New Year, exposing a series of questions:
1, how the Japanese police monitored, actually let Ghosn disappear;
2, how is the Kansai airport engaged, how to let Ghosn successfully leave the country;
3, such a complicated rescue process, the band members (reportedly many of them are actually former special forces soldiers) must have come to Japan many times to step on the spot, but Japan is completely unaware.
After the incident was exposed, the world was in an uproar, and the Japanese government and Abe in the new year did not say a word, but the humiliation in their hearts could be imagined.
One of Japan's most famous suspects can leave the country so unknowingly, exposing a huge security flaw in Japan, which is known for its fine management.
Don't forget, there is also the Tokyo Olympics this year, and such a "black swan event" is becoming a storm in Japanese politics.
The Japanese government's face is crackling, and next, there will certainly be a large number of people held accountable.
Three black swans, different in place, but as stated at the beginning, have three common characteristics:
Surprise, impact, predictability.
But that's what happened.
This is reminiscent of Murphy's law.
Captain Murphy of an air base in the United States found in his study of the accident that if there were two or more ways to do something, and one of the options would lead to disaster, someone must have made that choice.
This is the "Murphy's Law", and the main content has four aspects:
First, nothing is as simple as it seems;
Second, everything will take longer than you expect;
Third, things that will go wrong will always go wrong;
If you're worried about something happening, it's more likely to happen.
If you have seen the movie "Interstellar", you may not be unfamiliar with "Murphy's Law".
This actually shows a problem: there must be hidden dangers in the accident, there should also be signs of abnormal phenomena, as long as a hidden danger is blocked, a sign is found in advance, often can avoid the occurrence of the entire accident.
The fall of the Black Eagle of the Taiwan Army seemed very sudden, but there must have been a large number of hidden dangers long ago, but they were not eliminated in time, and eventually caused a major tragedy in the New Year, so that they even took up a number of senior generals such as the "Chief of Staff".
The US Embassy in Baghdad was besieged, it seems to be an occasional incident, but it is only frozen three feet is not a day's cold, the role of the occupying forces has long made the Iraqis out of anger, and the indiscriminate bombing has completely erupted the anger, and the next time, it is likely to be a new "Benghazi incident".
Ghosn's Hollywood movie-like escape, but also let people see the so-called Japanese rigor, but also a lot of loopholes, as long as every link is a little careful, Ghosn not only can not escape at all, these former special forces may be taken down by the Japanese, in Japan will sit in prison.
But all of this, what should be avoided, failed to avoid happening, and black swans flew up one after another.
Some events eventually become tragedies, and the new year has just begun, witnessing the separation of life and death; some things have become miracles, more than 007 007, which makes people laugh.
2020 has only just begun, and three black swans have flown in succession, but it is certain that this is only the beginning, and the worst is yet to come.
In this world, there is no chance of luck. If you don't raise your guard, the worst will always happen and eventually become an indelible shame.