In the third quarter of 2021, Taiyuan's GDP was 360.06 billion, an increase of 69.1 billion, with a nominal growth rate of 23.75%, the first growth rate among major cities; Ganzhou's GDP in the third quarter was 304.18 billion, an increase of 43.27 billion, and a nominal growth rate of 16.58%. Both cities are performing exceptionally well, and the upward trend is very obvious!
The optimism about Taiyuan and Ganzhou is also based on my two judgments about the future:
1, the new era of heavy industry has arrived
In the past 20 years, there has been a phenomenon of "heavy light industry, light heavy industry" in China, which has led to the long-term discrimination, suppression and smear of heavy industry, and heavy industry has almost become a street rat. With the reset of global raw material prices, China's key industrial equipment is blocked by the West, and technological innovation lacks scientific theoretical support, China has realized that heavy industry is China's biggest weakness, If China wants to become a real scientific and technological power, it must adopt a "light and heavy dual track" strategy, without the accumulation of heavy industry in materials science, kinetics, mechanics, chemistry and other disciplines, comprehensive scientific progress can not be achieved. I think China's "new heavy industry era" is coming.
In the next decade, China's biggest development opportunity is not light industry, but heavy industry, and a "new heavy industry era" with new energy, new materials, new power, new aerospace, major equipment, and major scientific devices as the core is coming. And these areas are the advantages of Taiyuan and Ganzhou, the two cities must not only grasp this round of "scientific revolution", but also use science and technology as a plough, open up new heavy industry, and form their own new competitiveness.
2. The value of resources returns
For a long time, the profits of industrial goods were much higher than the profits of industrial raw materials, and this economic model was based on the monopoly of technology and industrial systems by a few Western countries. Since the 21st century, China has achieved industrialization, which is the largest industrialization in human history, and its scale and depth exceed the total industrialization of other countries in the world. Now, industrial technology and systems are no longer monopolized by a small number of Western countries, and Western forces will inevitably not allow China to occupy the largest cake of global industrialization, so it is inevitable to promote the price of industrial raw materials. For a long time to come, the general trend of industrial raw material prices is upward.
Shanxi and Jiangxi, where Taiyuan and Ganzhou are located, are both major resource provinces in China, and they will inevitably enjoy the benefits brought by rising raw material prices in the future.
Here's a brief discussion of the future strategies of the two cities:
First, Taiyuan
1. Population
As the Chinese population is about to enter negative growth, the value of the future population will be more valuable, and the population competition between cities will be more intense. With a population of 5.3 million in 2020, Taiyuan ranks 80th among all cities and the bottom among provincial capitals. If Taiyuan wants to make a difference, it must attract more migrants (at least 3 million) in the next decade.
Shanxi is mountainous, the land is poor, the ecology is fragile, and the population concentration strategy should be adopted to transfer the population from the mountainous areas to the cities so that the mountain forests can rest and recuperate. There are two advantages to this: First, Shanxi has a population of 35 million, but only Taiyuan is a big city, other cities are too small, not conducive to the development of the internal circular economy, only when the population is concentrated, the city is strong, Shanxi can rise; second, after the withdrawal of the mountain population, the establishment of a state-owned agriculture and forestry development company to carry out economic agriculture and tourism, not only protect the ecology, but also create higher value.
It is recommended that in 10-20 years, 80% of Shanxi's population be concentrated in 5 central cities: Taiyuan 8.5 million, Yuncheng 6.5 million, Linfen 6 million, Datong 5 million, and Changzhi 5 million.
2. Zoning
My idea is: Taiyuan and Jinzhong will be merged into the new Taiyuan City; Datong and Shuozhou will be merged into the new Datong City; Changzhi and Jincheng will be merged into the new Changzhi City; "LüliangShan City" will be formed in the western mountainous areas, and "Taihangshan City" will be formed in the eastern mountainous areas, so as to create a new form of economic zone with tourism, agriculture, forestry, aquaculture, hunting, vacation, and pension as the core, with the state-owned development companies as the main economies, and implement marketization and commercial operation.
3. Industry
Actively embrace the new heavy industry era, integrate resources, based on heavy industry, create a new industry with new energy, new power, new materials, heavy industry equipment, aerospace technology as the core, and strive to become an important participant in the fourth scientific and technological revolution, and become a leader in the fields of energy, power, materials and equipment in China and even the world.
4. Flow
Taiyuan's influence is too small, the network volume is too low, and it lacks traffic value. The world has changed, and Taiyuan must learn to publicize itself, "show" itself, and let the world know itself. In this era, "traffic" is not sensationalism, traffic is marketing, bringing a steady stream of consumption and influence.
Ideal Taiyuan: about 30th in the country with a population of 8.5 million, an urban population of 6 million, a national new heavy industry center, a major scientific research center, and an energy and power capital.
2. Ganzhou
1. Positioning
Soldiers who want to be generals may not succeed, but soldiers who do not want to become generals will necessarily do so. Whether it is a person or a city, it is very important to position yourself. With positioning, there is a goal to strive for, and there is a direction to run.
Ganzhou GDP is 66th in the country, and the industry also has a certain strength, with a permanent population of 8.97 million in the city and more than 2 million in the urban area, and the comprehensive strength is one of the few non-provincial capital cities in the central and western regions. Ganzhou's urban goal can be upgraded on the basis of Jiangxi's sub-central city: to become an entry-level second-tier city by 2030.
2. Industry
Industry is an important support for the jump in the level of prefecture-level cities, and the rise of Ganzhou in the past five years has been to seize industrial opportunities and catch the ride of new materials, new energy and electric vehicles. At the beginning of the article, I made two major predictions, one is the re-emergence of heavy industry, and the other is the return of raw material value, these two points are the advantages of Ganzhou, from which to find industrial opportunities, to create an industry that conforms to the future of the times, is the opportunity and test of Ganzhou. My suggestion is to turn the raw materials in our hands into key equipment to promote the development of productive forces and major scientific and technological progress of the country, such as aerospace equipment, military equipment, transportation equipment, industrial equipment, etc.
3. Enterprises
A city must have multiple business cards, one is a representative figure, one is a representative building, one is a representative attraction, and one is a representative enterprise. Yantai has Wanhua, Xuzhou has Xugong, Weifang has Goertek, Wenzhou has Zhengtai, Ningde has Ningde era, and Ganzhou must also have a representative enterprise that thinks of Ganzhou when it is mentioned.
In the past decade, Ganzhou has initially established a future-oriented advanced manufacturing industry, and formed a certain aggregation, and the future industry "fusion" may give birth to a super enterprise with global influence. Ganzhou has the possibility of giving birth to super enterprises in the following areas: one is new materials, the second is smart home, the third is ecological agriculture, the fourth is new energy, and the fifth is industrial equipment.
4. Transportation and logistics
Recently, the state issued a document to support the "public railway and water intermodal transport" to build a logistics hub, that is, to create a green transportation hub with three major transportation advantages of road, railway and water transport, which is more energy-saving and efficient than the traditional single transportation and logistics mode. Ganzhou highway, railway, water transport are very developed, with the conditions to become a transportation hub, can become a South China logistics center, China-Europe express train South China distribution center. If the Zhejiang-Gansu-Guangdong Grand Canal can be opened as soon as possible, the Ganzhou transportation and logistics hub will be further improved.
5. Technology
The biggest obstacle to the entry of third-tier cities into second-tier cities is science and technology, without the support of scientific and technological innovation, even if they enter the second-tier cities, it is difficult to gain a foothold. Looking at the list of second-tier cities, either provincial capitals or economically strong cities, but without exception have strong scientific and technological strength, such as Changzhou, Xuzhou, Wenzhou, Weifang, Yantai, Yangzhou, etc., the strength of universities and enterprises can not be underestimated. Ganzhou should establish a scientific and technological innovation cultivation system, promote the transformation of key enterprises into innovative enterprises, and actively form or introduce new universities, research institutes, laboratories, and scientific research teams to continuously enhance Ganzhou's scientific and technological innovation strength.
Ideal Ganzhou: 35th-40th in the country with a population of 10 million, an urban population of 4 million, a national new heavy industry center, and a new material capital.
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