Chen Hao: The market is doing short-term bottom-building activities! What is the mindset for the fourth quarter? Small editor's note: Trend analysis strategy analysis

On Friday, the two markets opened slightly lower in the morning, the Shanghai index was weak in the morning, and the ChiNext index rushed higher and consolidated. In the afternoon, the Shanghai index fell slightly, and after losing the 3500 point mark, the decline expanded to 1%, and the Shenzhen index and the chuang index turned green successively, and the turnover of the two cities broke through trillion yuan for 11 consecutive days. As of the close, the Shanghai index fell 1% at 3491.64 points; the Shenzhen component index fell 0.64% at 14462.62 points; and the innovation index fell 0.28% to 3352.75 points.

Today's two major indexes closed in green on Friday, the Shanghai index gave back all of Thursday's gains, and the Chuang index oscillated around Thursday's closing point, up and down by no more than 0.65%. Wolf Marshal Chen Hao bluntly said that "the market should be doing short-term bottom-building activities in these two days", so what will be the direction of market development in the next four quarters? And what strategic approach should we adopt? Selected Wolf Shuai's latest guest content to share with you!

Chen Hao

These two days the market should be doing short-term bottoming activities, it is estimated that next week should go well, but overall it is still a volatile slow bull, do not expect the index level to soar. Structurally speaking, it should still be that the ChiNext board may re-strengthen, the strong stocks in the ChiNext board are still the original ones, the market turned around and found that it is better to open a new situation than to go the old way, so the way of thinking in the last four quarters may be that all the stocks that have been touched are touched again.

The reason why it is better to open a new game than to go the old way is from two levels, the first level is the fundamentals, the way of thinking that can be in the track has been excavated, that is, nothing new can arouse everyone's consensus. There are so many good stocks in the market, at most, part of it is now looking for, flipping, and picking up from the retracement that has already had a certain adjustment. The other is the strong Hengqiang, the most typical is the Ningde era, which may be picked up again, and feel as if it has something to ponder. But first of all, I have no way to stand for any way of thinking, I can only say what to do in the fourth quarter? Highly dispersed, the East is not bright and the West is bright, take an average number can be, so basically it is still a lying level tactic, do not make too much effort, do not actively change shares, as long as their stocks are good, they can continue to hold.

At present, the funds are in an embarrassing situation, first of all, everyone must be in a heavy position, and there is no way to be bearish, so the index has no room to fall, and the stocks have fallen, so everyone must allocate something; the idea of configuration is to look at each other, that is, to ask each other: What are you optimistic about? What is he optimistic about? ...... Finding out that there was nothing new to tell, I revisited the stock that had already been touched, and that was basically it. And the market now does not have too many leaders, the original more bullish figures this year's performance is not very good, lost a certain appeal, so the market funds are gradually dispersed, averaging to a variety of things that everyone thinks makes sense.

As for why the full heavy position, do not dare to look bearish? It should be said that since 2018, the index has not come out of the mad bull market of chicken and dog ascension, so the overall average valuation has not increased much, the only high is that Moutai has reached a price-earnings ratio of 60 times, and the valuation of most of the remaining stocks is acceptable; and the entire fund, especially the northbound funds, everyone can see that they are buying and buying all the way, and the overall capital stock of the institution is relatively high. You say bearish, you have to join hands to sell stocks; but after these rounds of short-term, mid-line tried to sell high and suck low... In the end, they are all discouraged, so that now everyone has formed a consensus, that is, the era of doing index swings has passed, and the important thing is which stock to take as a shareholder, which is what the market has to do at present.

The specific configuration strategy now makes me say, I can't say, this is a group confusion - the original idea is this kind of Moutai Town, that is, the higher the ROE, the better, the larger the plate, the better; but now because the vast majority of the leading "Mao" are in an absolute high position, everyone is not steadfast, so this standard has been relaxed. I now also help customers choose funds, when monitoring heavy stocks, I only use one principle: that is, to disperse the allocation in the space of ROE and circulating market value, rather than focusing on a certain style, then such a fund has a small drawdown, low pain points, and it is easier for holders to hold. The current idea is to try to diversify as much as possible, because diversification can reduce risk, and even fund managers have told me, "Originally my task was to get returns, now our task is to manage risks, maybe the next as long as the risk is managed, this bowl of rice can eat very well." "So now there's only one range, and there's no better way to say it."

From the pursuit of income to the pursuit of management risks, their main operation is first of all track dispersion, followed by the financial quality of the stock is not the pursuit of an extreme good indicator, equivalent to making a local large portfolio of indices, but it is impossible to choose, so just choose so dozens, this is an ordinary fund manager.

The other part is the quantitative fund manager, they are more exaggerated, they want to take 150 to 300 stocks, it is said that this kind of fund is better performance. Because it is more dispersed, it will not be recruited, after all, the stock market still reflects the value composition of the overall economy, the annual wealth growth rate of the high-quality part of the overall economy is between 12% and 18%, and the average value is within this range, so as long as you take this value, you can be a good fund manager, and everyone gradually does not work too hard, which is the current direction of development.