Shell to find a house Li Wenjie: The marginal effect of urban "pie-spreading" development is decreasing

21st Century Business Herald reporter Zhang Min Shanghai report On September 18, the "Boao 21st Century Real Estate Forum 21st Annual Conference" was held in Shanghai, and Li Wenjie, senior vice president of Shell Housing and president of Shell Research Institute, said in his speech that the urbanization process in China has developed from the urbanization of land to the urbanization of people. This stage has two characteristics, on the one hand, the marginal effect of incremental development by relying on the "big cake" has been decreasing; on the other hand, the people's attention to community life is higher, and the logic of urban development has changed greatly.

Li Wenjie said that since last year, the outbreak of the new crown epidemic has made people stay in the community longer and longer. Therefore, the concept of the circle of life will receive more attention.

At the policy level, since 2018, the regulatory level has launched and strengthened the concept of "living circle", and the policy has also given greater support to the construction of convenience, which has also improved the convenience of urban life.

Li Wenjie released the research results of the Shell Research Institute "2021 China Urban Life Circle Vitality Index" at the forum and interpreted it. He said that according to the study, municipalities directly under the central government and provincial capitals occupy the top of the list, and the overall performance of southern cities is better than that of northern cities. This not only reflects the current situation of the construction of different urban living circles, but also provides a reference for future urban renewal.

In recent years, the policy side has given a lot of support to the construction of convenient living circles. In 2018, the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, in the new version of the "Urban Residential Area Planning and Design Standards", will take the "15-minute living circle residential area", "10-minute living circle residential area" and "5-minute living circle residential area" as the core objects of residential area planning and facility configuration.

In May this year, the Ministry of Commerce, the National Development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Civil Affairs and other 12 departments issued the "Opinions on Promoting the Construction of the Urban Quarter-hour Convenience Living Circle", which carried out the top-level design of the construction of the one-quarter hour convenience living circle and proposed a specific pilot plan. In July this year, 11 departments issued the "Guide to the Construction of Convenient Living Circles in Cities in a Quarter of An Hour", which put forward specific construction goals and business requirements.

Li Wenjie said that since the new crown epidemic, the requirements of community isolation and home work have sharply reduced the radius of people's lives, and neglected communities have also received attention, but the construction of 15-minute living circles in different cities is different.

To this end, the above report released by Shell Research Institute put forward the concept of "minute city", with the help of three indicators of urban life circle service accessibility, format richness, and environmental quality, the performance of the "15 minute life circle" in 60 cities was evaluated, and the typical city and community related cases were analyzed.

Li Wenjie said that the ranking list of 60 cities reflects the following characteristics: first, the municipalities directly under the central government and provincial capitals rank higher; the ranking order of the second and first-tier cities is Shenzhen, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Beijing; third, the southern cities are better than the northern cities.

Specifically, the top 20 cities in the comprehensive score, except for Shenzhen, Xiamen, Dalian and Qingdao, which are independently listed in the plan, the other 16 are municipalities directly under the central government or provincial capitals. Among them, Xiamen ranks higher than the provincial capital Fuzhou, and Qingdao ranks higher than Jinan.

Among the first-tier cities, Shenzhen ranks first, scoring more balanced in terms of service accessibility, format richness and environmental quality, and the highest comprehensive score; while Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Beijing have more or less lost points in three aspects, and Beijing has a spatial fragmentation due to the urban texture, which reduces the availability of service industries and ranks low.

Overall, southern cities are better than northern cities. Among the top ten cities in the sample, except for Beijing, the other cities are all southern cities; among the top 20 cities, in addition to Beijing, Qingdao and the four cities in the northeast, the other cities are also southern cities. In recent years, the southern city construction has been updated rapidly, the environmental quality score is higher, and the service accessibility is also better than that of the north.

Li Wenjie said that based on the similarities and differences of the sample cities, the report also divides 60 cities into four major clusters, namely balanced development cities, service development cities, environmental quality development cities, and vibrant development cities in the living circle. Due to the impact of different types of cities in terms of development stage and residents' needs, the advantages and disadvantages of the three major indicators are not the same.

For example, one-third of the 60 cities are service-oriented cities, and the overall index of these cities is slightly lower than that of cities with balanced development, but the accessibility of services is very good, and Chengdu is a representative of such cities.

Among the cities with environmental quality development, Beijing performs better because beijing's concept of community environmental quality development is more advanced.

The study of the "minute city" will eventually return to the essence of man. Li Wenjie said that the report continued to sink from the city, came to the nearest community, and calculated the vitality index of 6800 community life circles in Beijing, and summarized three typical communities: super-large communities, urban "hives" and "isolated island" communities.

Among them, the Tiantongyuan community is a representative of the super-large community, with a large population and better basic facilities, but the transportation facilities are lower than the average level of the entire city; the location of the "urban hive" is better, there are many rental houses, but the mobility is large, and the rental population is also younger; the location of the "isolated island" community is relatively remote, the lack of commercial and transportation facilities, and the owner's requirements for the quality of living are higher.

The different characteristics of these three communities determine the different directions in urban renewal, which is also the original intention of the report.

Li Wenjie said that China's urbanization process is changing from urbanization and land urbanization to people's urbanization, that is, the logic of urban development is shifting from "incremental expansion" to "stock mining", from "material-oriented" to "people-centered". The introduction of the concept and achievements of "Minute City" can provide a reference for urban development and promote the evolution of communities according to local conditions.

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