On November 06, Observer.com interviewed Lai Yue-chien, a professor at National Chengchi University in Taiwan and a commentator on current affairs.
He discussed a series of views on whether there is really a possibility of war between the two sides of the strait and whether the United States has the ability to assist in the defense of Taiwan.
First of all, he judged the time of the war in the Taiwan Strait.
He believes that it is unlikely at present, and the key point is 2024. The basic argument is that if the Anti-Secession Law is not touched, the PLA will remain as immobile as a mountain; once the Anti-Secession Law is touched and the DPP dares to declare Taiwan independence, the Settlement Army will absolutely use thunderbolt means. Why does he think it will be 2024? He said that it was decided by the election of the leader of the Taiwan region that year. If it becomes a battle between the DPP's "Taiwan independence" and the KMT's "anti-Taiwan independence," and the People of Taiwan choose to continue to vote for the DPP, then the path of peaceful reunification may be revised.
In my opinion, I can't agree with this view. This is because although the KMT is still adhering to the slogan of "opposing Taiwan independence," it does not mention "reunification" at all, which means that the KMT's anti-"Taiwan independence" is not the same as promoting reunification. Ma Ying-jeou was also opposed to "Taiwan independence" at the beginning, but he insisted on "no reunification, no independence, and no force." Now Zhu Lilun has deleted Ma Ying-jeou's "three noes", but still does not mention reunification. What is even more core is that this Professor Lai went so far as to place the core point of the mainland's determination on the dispute between the two parties of the Kuomintang and the Democratic Progressive Party, and simply ignored the few words that the mainland has stressed many times: "The times and the situation have always been on the side of the forces that advocate national reunification, and the initiative for the leading power has always been on the side of the mainland of the motherland." ”
Second, on the Taiwanese people's views on the war.
Professor Lai's statement is that most Taiwanese people think that if they really want to fight a war, it is better to let "Taiwan independence" fight; many young people and their mothers have expressed, "If you want to go by yourself, or tell your children to go, why should we go?" "The people of Taiwan are overwhelmingly dissatisfied with the possibility of a war between the two sides of the strait at present; everyone is unwilling to fight a war, and the vast majority of them believe that Taiwan's army is not very capable of fighting." He's Taiwanese, so I choose to take his word for it.
Third, on the issue of the possibility of a military conflict between the two sides of the strait.
Professor Lai's view is that those who think that Tsai Ing-wen is betting on the mainland in order to pursue economic development and will not really use force against Taiwan do not understand the military. If there is a war in the Taiwan Strait, the battlefield will only be limited to Taiwan, and no one will dare to attack Chinese mainland mainland. If Japan agrees to the United States using its military bases in Japan to launch a team attack, Japan's military bases will certainly be destroyed and the Japanese mainland will suffer; and if the United States dares to use warplanes to attack Chinese mainland, the US mainland will certainly be attacked by missiles Chinese mainland. Therefore, the battlefield must be limited to Taiwan.
Professor Lai is right about this. Even if the mainland's economy may be blockaded by anti-China countries when Taiwan is attacked, it will be temporary. After the reunification of the two sides of the strait, the two sides of the strait will be a multiplier superposition of comprehensive advantages, and the economy will be stronger. I am afraid that those countries will hurry to move closer to China and show goodwill, and hug China's thighs tightly. Because profit comes first.
Fourth, on the issue of the United States' commitment to "assist in the defense" of Taiwan.
Professor Lai believes that the United States is talking big because the United States simply does not have the strength. As long as the war breaks out, Chinese mainland will be the first to grasp the control of the sea and air around the Taiwan Strait and even the taiwan island. At that time, the US aircraft carrier fleet will not be able to get close to Taiwan, and the US military will not be able to reach Taiwan. As soon as they arrived, The American ships would be sunk and the approaching opportunity would be shot down. The United States cannot enter the country, so how can it assist in defending Taiwan?
In view of Professor Lai's above series of views, my view is that there are only two paths before the Taiwan authorities: One is the road to survival, that is, to obediently accept reunification. The other is the dead end, which is the refusal to unify. How to choose? This is the most anxious thing for Tsai Ing-wen at the moment. In her eyes, the United States is the life-saving straw for the Taiwan authorities, but the United States is simply unreliable and incompetent, and the United States cannot even win in the face of such a weak guerrilla force as the Afghan Taliban for twenty years, nor can it protect the Afghan puppet regime. Can he protect Taiwan in the face of a powerful China? And this straw is about to break, the United States is facing a huge epidemic crisis and economic crisis, how long can it last is a question mark. In the eyes of the United States, Taiwan is also a life-saving straw for the United States. Once China reunifies the two sides of the strait, the international credibility of the United States will be completely destroyed, those who follow the class will no longer believe in the United States, and those alliances will face disintegration. Without thugs, where does America's boss status come from? There will also be chaos in the United States, and even disintegrate as quickly as the former Soviet Union did.