Recently, the policies of the Hangzhou property market have been one after another, and the editor is really busy............
The market signals transmitted by the policy have gradually emerged. Today we will talk to Li Kunjun, the founder of independent housing evaluation, to sort out the policies for you one by one and clarify the trend of the property market.
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On July 26, the Financial Associated Press published a report that dozens of key housing enterprises that were included in the "three red lines" pilot have been required by the regulatory authorities not to buy land for more than 40% of annual sales, and this proportion restriction includes not only housing enterprises obtaining land in the open market, but also the expenditure on land acquisition through mergers and acquisitions.
Previously, in August 2020, in order to control the scale of interest-bearing liabilities of real estate enterprises, the regulatory authorities set up "three red lines" for key housing enterprises, specifically the asset-liability ratio after excluding pre-collection should not be greater than 70%; the net debt ratio should not be greater than 100%; the cash short-term debt ratio should not be less than 1 times, and it was managed according to the four files of "red-orange-yellow-green". Pilot housing enterprises must complete the debt reduction target by June 30, 2023.
Moderator Wang Sen: Although the regulatory authorities have not publicly confirmed the policy of "the amount of land purchased shall not exceed 40% of annual sales", there is no wind and no waves, and many people in the industry have said that this policy will be landed in the next high probability. Dean Li, if this policy is really implemented, what impact will it have on the entire real estate industry?
Li Kunjun, founder of independent appraisal house: Although there is indeed no very formal document down, everyone believes that according to last year's regulatory trend, this is a policy with a high probability of implementation. Once this policy is implemented, I personally feel that the era of real estate boom will be truly stopped. So I personally feel that for the entire market, there may be a subversive cooling performance.
Moderator Wang Sen: In fact, in recent years, many housing companies have opened a "high turnover" development model in order to do large-scale. Expand the scale by hoarding land and thus increasing leverage. Therefore, last year, the regulatory authorities proposed "three lines and four gears", which is equivalent to a physical examination of the financial health status of housing enterprises of different grades. Dean Li, from your observation, after nearly a year of the "three lines and four files" proposed, what is the result of the "physical examination report" of the housing enterprise?
Li Kunjun, founder of independent appraisal: This year we have indeed seen a very big divergence in the entire real estate market. Some of the original head-type enterprises now often emerge from the situation of capital crisis, including Evergrande, Huaxia Happiness, Taihe, Fusheng and so on. Of course, some of the healthier companies are still doing very well. For example, real estate companies like Vanke, Country Garden and Binjiang are still performing very steadily. Therefore, I think that after such a policy comes out, there will be a very big differentiation for housing enterprises with different development paths.
Moderator Wang Sen: From the "three lines and four gears" rule to the key housing enterprises to buy land the amount of land is included in the supervision, in fact, it is regulated at the financial end, that is to say, holding the "bull's nose", then at the moment of centralized land supply, for some small and medium-sized housing enterprises, will it bring some opportunities?
Li Kunjun, founder of independent appraisal: I personally believe that in fact, it should not be divided into small and medium-sized housing enterprises or large housing enterprises, but should be divided into radical or stable. I think that these radical housing enterprises, whether they are small and medium-sized housing enterprises or large housing enterprises, their future supervision will have a greater impact on them. In the past, more stable enterprises, even if they are smaller, will still have a better life. For example, a real estate company I know, it has been developing in the county of Zhejiang, it does not expand, every year in the county to do a few projects, even to the county town, these places are also very few people to compete with it, so I think it has a good life.
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In fact, in addition to putting a "tight curse" on developers, recently, 8 departments such as the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development and the National Development and Reform Commission have also jointly issued the "Notice of 8 Departments including the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development on Continuous Rectification and Regulation of the Real Estate Market Order".
The "Notice" clearly mentions that it will closely focus on the goal of stabilizing land prices, stabilizing housing prices and stabilizing expectations, and promoting the stable and healthy development of the real estate market. In the process of implementation, we will be problem-oriented and focus on rectifying prominent problems in the fields of real estate development, housing sales, housing leasing, and property services, which the people have strongly reacted to and have a high degree of social concern.
The goal is to strive to achieve a significant improvement in the order of the real estate market in about 3 years.
Moderator Wang Sen: We have seen that the "Notice" clarifies the time and route of the real estate market order rectification, and some industry insiders say that the next industry will usher in the "strictest supervision", Dean Li, what kind of market signal do you think this conveys?
Li Kunjun, founder of independent appraisal house: The ultimate signal is of course the hope that the market can grow in a healthy and orderly manner. Although in recent years, through various ways, a lot of chaos or a lot of chaos in supervision has been avoided, but in fact, many chaos is still outside the supervision. For example, some real estate companies that are now in a precarious situation have left some bad projects, partly because of their own follow-up funding problems, but partly because the money that should have entered the regulatory account has been misappropriated. In addition, at present, we also see that even in the context of the price limit, some houses still hope to be able to sell at a higher price. The emergence of the "strictest supervision in history" I believe will have a relatively large impact on the entire real estate market and promote the healthy development of the entire market.
Moderator Wang Sen: We see that the "Notice" clearly mentions that it will focus on real estate development, housing sales, housing leasing, property services and other fields, which can be said to cover the closed-loop supervision of the whole industrial chain of real estate. So from your observation of the real estate market in Hangzhou, what aspects do you think are the main outstanding problems at present?
Li Kunjun, founder of independent appraisal: In fact, the Hangzhou real estate market, from the perspective of development and sales, I think it has done better than many markets. Because relatively speaking, Hangzhou is still a relatively transparent and fair market. However, there are also many links in the real estate market, such as leasing. In the past few years, we have seen a large number of rental intermediary companies go out of business, leaving both tenants and landlords as victims, leaving a whole bunch of problems. These industry-related problems, I think the future needs to be strongly grasped.
Moderator Wang Sen: In addition, we have also seen that the Hangzhou property market has recently introduced a number of policies, such as the "Special Plan on Building a Shared Public Service System (Draft for Comments)" and the "Measures for the Management of Shared Property Rights Guaranteed Housing (Draft for Comments)", although they are still only in the stage of soliciting opinions, but the policy intentions are very obvious. So Dean Li, do you think that after these policies are gradually implemented, where will the Hangzhou property market and land market go?
Li Kunjun, founder of independent appraisal house: I personally think that the key is to look at the strength, if the policy is only "hung on the wall", or only a very small part of the implementation, then I think it is not particularly useful for the entire market. And these policies on the back end, I think, actually only play a complementary role, and will not have a very big change in the nature of the whole market. However, I think that if real estate can be controlled at the financial level, I believe this will be a more effective way in the long-term mechanism.