Guocheng Financial Wang Jianzhang: p2P will not repeat the mistakes of group buying

In 2015, online lending set off a second wave of investment boom, and more than 20 platforms obtained financing in the first quarter alone. The first echelon of platforms gradually began c round financing, some of the background, the platform that is gathering momentum is even directly funded by the industry fund.

The addition of capital quickly catalyzed the development of the industry and brought about a huge bubble. At present, the p2p talent bubble is serious, a new person often asks for more than 10,000, and the experienced middle and high-level executives often have millions of annual salaries. The per capita cost of customer acquisition doubled within a year, the marketing expenses of well-known platforms were often tens of millions, and in order to compete for customers, large-scale subsidies such as registration cash returns have become the norm. On the other hand, the closure of the road has also become accustomed to, especially the tide of running at the end of the year, which is even more thrilling, and many old investors have also folded the sand. The phenomenon of the two heavens of ice and fire can't help but be reminiscent of the thousand-regiment war in the group buying industry that year. Will p2p online lending repeat the mistakes of group buying?

First, let's review the history of the Thousand Regiments War in that year.

1, 2010-2011: Group buying pioneering period.

In September 2010, Meituan, Ayatuan, Andumi Network all began to expand urbanly; Handle.com launches daily multi-group; Tuanmei Network was officially renamed Jumei Youpin.

2, 2011-2012: Vicious competition and consolidation period of group buying.

In 2011, Nuomi network was packaged with Renren Company and listed on the New York Stock Exchange in the United States; Wowotuan claims to have secured $200 million in financing from Goldman Sachs. Manza.com announced the completion of a second round of financing of more than $50 million

This easy-to-replicate feature of the group buying industry was quickly discovered by more people, and in March 2011 (the first anniversary of group buying), the number of group buying websites exceeded 5,000.

3, 2012-2013: Group buying doomsday freshman

The cooling of the capital market, has become accustomed to relying on capital hot money for development of group buying websites in 2012 quickly fell into a low tide, active group buying websites less than 1,000. The entire group buying industry is in a state of doomsday panic.

4, 2013-2014: The group purchase pattern is initially determined

Meituan and Dianping group ranked in the top two, and Lashou, Wowotuan and Glutinous Rice Tuan competed for the third place, and at the beginning of 2013, the overall turnover of the top five group buying websites accounted for 90% of the total. The group purchase pattern is initially determined.

Second, let's take a look at the history of the development of the p2p industry.

1, 2007-2012: Embryonic development

The number of online lending platforms in the country has grown to about 20, and there are only less than 10 active platforms, with a monthly turnover of about 500 million yuan and about 10,000 effective investors by the end of 2011.

2，2013-2014; Period of rapid development

The p2p platform has grown from 20 to 1,000, the number of investors has increased from 10,000 to 1 million, and the transaction volume has increased from 23 billion to 250 billion. The compound annual growth rate is more than 300%. More than 20 VCs have been obtained, more than 20 state-owned platforms, and listed companies and Internet giants have set up p2p platforms. At the same time, the number of platforms such as bankruptcy and road running has exceeded 565.

3, 2015-present: the middle of rapid development? Shuffle period?

In the first four months of 2015, more than 20 platforms obtained financing, and industrial funds, Internet companies, and listed companies ran into p2p. The talent bubble is serious, the cost of customer acquisition is soaring, and P2P has entered a crossroads.

Third, venture capital listing and runaway go bankrupt together, p2p is very similar to the group buying industry of that year.

1, the pursuit of capital

The addition of capital quickly catalyzed the development of the industry, major companies have gone to the road of burning money, p2P advertising is overwhelming, companies in order to compete for users and the market, high-priced subsidies; business competition is fierce, homogenization is serious, the industry operating costs are geometrically increasing, profits are meager, and most companies lose money.

2, low threshold

There is no entry threshold, no industry standard, the cost of entry is extremely low, the number of participants has soared in a short period of time, but most of them are bustling enterprises, and the speculation is strong, resulting in the rapid closure of many enterprises, the industry reshuffle is fierce, and the industry is overshadowed.

Fourth, p2p is 10 times larger than the value space of group purchase.

1, the main problems of group buying:

(1) Excessive blind expansion and lack of differentiated competition;

(2) Excessive reliance on preferential discounts, complete disregard for offline life and death;

(3) The customer's 2-time consumption rate is low, and the industry lacks sustainable value.

In a word: the value space of the group buying industry is extremely narrow. The large-scale entry of capital has exhausted the value space in a short period of time, and an industry cannot create value and quickly end the road.

2, p2p is 10 times larger than the value space of group buying

The p2p backend is non-standard finance. The value space is huge. From a macro point of view, China's interest rate is still a dual-track system, with the official loan interest rate represented by banks being about 10% and the private interest rate represented by private lending about 30%. The overall financing cost of p2p is about 15%, and there is still a 15% value space in the middle, including the leverage characteristics of finance, the value space is more than 150%.

From a micro perspective, the balance of p2p loans at the end of 2014 was 100 billion yuan, the balance of loans of small loan companies in the country was 900 billion yuan in the same period, and the balance of bank loans was 60 trillion yuan. P2P is only half the size of microfinance companies, and there is still room for 4 times growth. In addition, with the reduction of p2p financing costs and diversification of business, the growth of p2p business by 10 times is a high probability event.

Therefore, the huge value space in the financial market determines that p2p will not go to the end as quickly as the group buying industry, but will continue to grow like e-commerce. Although the addition of capital has produced a certain industry bubble, with the expansion of the market and the survival of the fittest in the market, the bubble will be gradually squeezed out, and the trend of rapid development of p2p will not change.

The reason why the p2P industry and group buying present thousands of companies competing and a large number of companies fail in a short period of time is because the pursuit of capital and the low threshold have caused a sharp increase in the number of companies, at the same time, the Internet winner-take-all rule forces companies to burn money at all costs to expand the scale, resulting in an industry bubble. The rapid rise of the industry threshold has led to the rapid closure of small companies.

The second round of financing in 2015 shows that the market is optimistic about the long-term development of p2p, and p2p has truly created a win-win situation for investors, borrowers and p2p enterprises, and has really reduced the borrowing interest rate in the long-tail market. P2P will make a huge contribution to the overall financial reform landscape.

Let time prove it all.