股票和商品出現背離，黑色系暴跌，3000點保衛戰又要打響了嗎

A股市場與商品市場

的背離

特别是與黑色系的背離

在1月底

A股在國家隊的推動下

經曆了一波強勁反彈

現在來到3000點左右

但近期

走勢偏向震蕩或弱勢

指數似乎沒怎麼跌

但個股跌幅較大

有點類似去年11、12月的走勢

國家隊的拉擡

不是為了創造牛市

而是托而不舉

類似于樓市中的狀态

A股目前在3000點的位置

與

商品市場出現背離

特别是與房地産

和基建相關的

黑色系品種

如焦煤、焦炭、螺紋鋼和鐵礦石等

它們的走勢出現了

明顯的下行破位趨勢

這反映了

中下遊需求的糟糕狀況

然而，A股市場

與商品市場或經濟基本面

存在一定的

背離度

在未來很長一段時間裡

A股市場可能隻有

交易機會而沒有投資機會

交易機會主要出現

在

市場暴跌深跌時

這時會出現籌碼真空區

國家會進行救市

抄底資金也會進入

進而帶來

超跌反彈

的機會

最後，要注意

高股息分紅股

的走勢

周期行業通常比較滞後

當商品市場大幅下跌時

我們應聯想到

未來周期行業

可能會遭遇業績的大幅下滑

是以，需要提防之前熱炒

或被資金追捧的

高股息分紅股

的未來走勢

他們的

下行風險

正在加大

若與經濟基本面相比對

并與周期相吻合

情況将更為明顯

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