龙年“开门红”！A股春季攻势开启？

2月19日，龙年A股首个交易日迎来“开门红”。沪指高开高走涨近1%，盘中一度站上2900点；深成指、创业板指红盘运行，黄白二线分化明显。总体来看，个股涨多跌少，两市上涨个股近4000只，超160股涨停。

板块方面，AI概念股全线爆发，Sora概念领涨，个股掀起涨停潮，当虹科技、因赛集团、易点天下等近十股集体封板；传媒股跟随走高，算力、CPO概念股盘中拉升，煤炭、势头等高股息概念股维持强势，旅游股表现活跃，券商股则出现部分调整。

机构认为，流动性循环连锁负反馈在节前强有力的外力干预下已经结束，1月以来经济运行平稳中不乏亮点，政策在今年有望更加灵活应变，当下投资者情绪有所企稳，科技主题涌现新催化剂，建议在反弹过程中步步为营，密切关注右侧确认信号，配置上从纯防御转向均衡，围绕优质红利蓝筹和科创成长两条主线布局。

多维度向好信号释放

实际上就在19日开市前，政策、外围市场、中国资产等多方面均已释放出龙年“开门红”信号。

2月18日，央行公告，为维护银行体系流动性合理充裕，开展1050亿元公开市场逆回购操作和5000亿元中期借贷便利（MLF）操作，利率分别维持1.8%、2.5%。由于本月MLF到期规模为4990亿元，央行续作5000亿元，因此本月MLF操作实为小幅增量平价续作。截至目前，央行已连续15个月增量续作MLF。

2月4日至9日期间，证监会官网针对推动上市公司提升投资价值、支持汇金入市、严惩欺诈发行等发布15条要闻，强调充分运用好股份回购、大股东增持、常态化分红、并购重组等提升投资价值“工具箱”，积极维护市场稳定，提振投资者信心。

外围市场方面，春节假期亚太市场股指多数上涨，日经225指数累计涨逾4%，韩国综合指数、印度SENSEX30指数均累计涨逾1%，其中，中国资产表现尤为亮眼，纳斯达克中国金龙指数大涨5.75%，恒生科技指数上涨5.50%，富时中国A50指数期货涨1.82%，并创出两个多月新高。

与此同时，ETF成交量放大，资金持续入市，境内ETF市场规模总计突破2万亿元，创历史纪录，相关产品也不断推向市场。就在19日，富国基金、银华基金双双发行中证A50ETF基金产品，抢抓中国市场“回春”机遇，专注A股核心资产，打响龙年第一枪。

A股仍在企稳改善初期

研判后续市场走势，东兴基金认为，春节假期期间，A50和香港市场涨幅均好于海外整体表现。国内经济数据在低预期下的改善对于提振市场风险偏好有重要意义。往后看，市场仍然在风险偏好企稳改善的初期，后续需要关注资本市场改革方向，以及春节开工来临后的数据成色。如果在财政发力、三大工程提振，以及消费意愿的改善下经济继续好于市场前期预期，则指数反弹高度有望看高一线。

农银汇理基金表示，当前A股市场估值水平已处于历史低位，中长期投资价值凸显，流动性宽松周期逐步开始，预计后续将吸引更多增量资金进入。同时，国内经济已处于复苏阶段，随着春节过后各行业企业复工复产，生产制造数据将企稳回升，企业盈利水平也将逐步恢复，A股“盈利底”确认，市场即将进入磨底期末尾阶段。经过近期利好政策频繁释放，国内流动性愈发宽松，房地产业开始回暖，资本市场制度不断改善，叠加各类机构投资者加大力度入市，市场有望迎来V型反转。

汇丰晋信基金指出，中央汇金对A股的支持让投资者看到了管理层的决心和支持力度，投资者情绪和信心均显著好转。随着节前市场成交量重新突破万亿，市场活跃度正在提升，流动性对于市场的困扰或将消除，基本面有望成为未来市场主线。后续投资者可以从基本面超预期修复、政策重点支持等角度挖掘市场新的机遇。

摩根士丹利基金分析，短期A股市场并非基本面问题，而是投资者信心问题，节前监管层多措并举，市场信心得到修复。证监会重锤出击违法违规行为，对相关主体的处罚体现了“以投资者为本”的监管思路，预计对市场情绪能够起到正面作用。后续看，市场赚钱效应有望提升。以AI为代表的科技、高端制造、医药等领域值得看好，而经营稳健、现金流充裕、具备提高分红能力的公司仍然具备很好的配置价值。

国防军工、AI等值得关注

银华基金表示，根据行业轮动模型计算，目前推荐国防军工、非银行金融、有色金属、钢铁、银行等行业。其中国防军工板块经过年度调整，配置的胜率、赔率兼具。对于军机赛道，利润分配重塑下游盈利水平持续提升，外贸打开局面锚定长期空间。对于军工行业主赛道，可重点聚焦需求反转后潜在超预期领域，以及新方向产业转化0-1投资机遇。

长盛基金研判，2024年有望进入补库存周期，企业盈利弹性提升。综合盈利所处周期位置，结合估值情况，建议关注三条主线：一是增长预期下，具备估值修复逻辑的工业金属、化工龙头、建材、消费白马龙头、医疗服务；二是主题活跃+海外映射+资金流入的医药板块；三是AI驱动，叠加半导体周期回升带动下，电子、计算机的潜在结构性机会，以及智能驾驶从1-N阶段带动汽车、零部件、汽车电子、计算机的结构性机会。

西部利得基金认为，近期政策调整积极改善市场流动性环境和投资者信心，市场估值仍然处于历史较低位置。在国内经济逐渐企稳、AI人工智能驱动的新一轮科技创新有望带动全球经济新一轮增长背景下，中期反弹机会可期。建议关注AI硬件及下游应用、智能汽车、绿色制造业等新质生产力；此外，调整充分的困境反转、有明确周期拐点类的行业也值得关注。

金鹰基金建议，行业配置上，重点关注受益流动性和风偏改善的超跌成长方向，消费等核心资产亦会有估值修复。科技制造方面，超跌反弹过程中可关注受益外部流动性改善、具有产业趋势的医药、电子行业，此外AI、卫星互联网、智能驾驶、机器人等科技主题亦值得关注。顺周期板块中，高股息策略短期超额收益或落后，但预计回调空间有限，短期建议关注受益春节景气向上的酒店、航空等出行消费的阶段性机会，同时食品饮料等核心资产也会有所修复，出口链机会可逢低布局。

（提示：上述信息仅供参考，不作为具体操作建议。市场有风险，投资需谨慎。）

作者：匀音

编辑：王一川

监制：吴芃

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rgba(16, 174, 255, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .5);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .05)}}@media screen and (min-width:1024px){body:not(.pages_skin_pc) .wx-root,body:not(.pages_skin_pc) body{--appmsgExtra-BG: #F7F7F7}}@media screen and (min-width:1024px){body:not(.pages_skin_pc) .wx-root[data-weui-theme=dark],body:not(.pages_skin_pc) body[data-weui-theme=dark]{--weui-BG-0: #111;--weui-BG-1: #1e1e1e;--weui-BG-2: #191919;--weui-BG-3: #202020;--weui-BG-4: #404040;--weui-BG-5: #2c2c2c;--weui-FG-0: rgba(255, 255, 255, .8);--weui-FG-HALF: rgba(255, 255, 255, .6);--weui-FG-1: rgba(255, 255, 255, .5);--weui-FG-2: rgba(255, 255, 255, .3);--weui-FG-3: rgba(255, 255, 255, .1);--weui-FG-4: rgba(255, 255, 255, .15);--weui-FG-5: rgba(255, 255, 255, .1);--weui-RED: #fa5151;--weui-ORANGERED: #ff6146;--weui-ORANGE: #c87d2f;--weui-YELLOW: #cc9c00;--weui-GREEN: #74a800;--weui-LIGHTGREEN: #3eb575;--weui-BRAND: #07c160;--weui-BLUE: #10aeff;--weui-INDIGO: #1196ff;--weui-PURPLE: #8183ff;--weui-WHITE: rgba(255, 255, 255, .8);--weui-LINK: #7d90a9;--weui-TEXTGREEN: #259c5c;--weui-FG: #fff;--weui-BG: #000;--weui-TAG-TEXT-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .5);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .05)}}@media screen and (min-width:1024px){body:not(.pages_skin_pc) .wx-root[data-weui-theme=dark],body:not(.pages_skin_pc) body[data-weui-theme=dark]{--appmsgExtra-BG: #121212}}@media screen and (min-width:1024px){body:not(.pages_skin_pc)body:not(.pages_skin_pc){background:var(--weui-BG-2)}}@media screen and (min-width:1024px) and (prefers-color-scheme:dark){body:not(.pages_skin_pc) .wx-root[data-weui-mode=care]:not([data-weui-theme=light]),body:not(.pages_skin_pc) body[data-weui-mode=care]:not([data-weui-theme=light]){--weui-BG-0: #111;--weui-BG-1: #1e1e1e;--weui-BG-2: #191919;--weui-BG-3: #202020;--weui-BG-4: #404040;--weui-BG-5: #2c2c2c;--weui-FG-0: rgba(255, 255, 255, .85);--weui-FG-HALF: rgba(255, 255, 255, .65);--weui-FG-1: rgba(255, 255, 255, .55);--weui-FG-2: rgba(255, 255, 255, .35);--weui-FG-3: rgba(255, 255, 255, .1);--weui-FG-4: rgba(255, 255, 255, .15);--weui-FG-5: rgba(255, 255, 255, .1);--weui-RED: #fa5151;--weui-ORANGERED: #ff6146;--weui-ORANGE: #c87d2f;--weui-YELLOW: #cc9c00;--weui-GREEN: #74a800;--weui-LIGHTGREEN: #3eb575;--weui-BRAND: #07c160;--weui-BLUE: #10aeff;--weui-INDIGO: #1196ff;--weui-PURPLE: #8183ff;--weui-WHITE: rgba(255, 255, 255, .8);--weui-LINK: #7d90a9;--weui-TEXTGREEN: #259c5c;--weui-FG: #fff;--weui-BG: #000;--weui-TAG-TEXT-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .5);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .05)}}@media screen and (min-width:1024px) and (prefers-color-scheme:dark){body:not(.pages_skin_pc) .wx-root:not([data-weui-theme=light]),body:not(.pages_skin_pc) body:not([data-weui-theme=light]){--weui-BG-0: #111;--weui-BG-1: #1e1e1e;--weui-BG-2: #191919;--weui-BG-3: #202020;--weui-BG-4: #404040;--weui-BG-5: #2c2c2c;--weui-FG-0: rgba(255, 255, 255, .8);--weui-FG-HALF: rgba(255, 255, 255, .6);--weui-FG-1: rgba(255, 255, 255, .5);--weui-FG-2: rgba(255, 255, 255, .3);--weui-FG-3: rgba(255, 255, 255, .1);--weui-FG-4: rgba(255, 255, 255, .15);--weui-FG-5: rgba(255, 255, 255, .1);--weui-RED: #fa5151;--weui-ORANGERED: #ff6146;--weui-ORANGE: #c87d2f;--weui-YELLOW: #cc9c00;--weui-GREEN: #74a800;--weui-LIGHTGREEN: #3eb575;--weui-BRAND: #07c160;--weui-BLUE: #10aeff;--weui-INDIGO: #1196ff;--weui-PURPLE: #8183ff;--weui-WHITE: rgba(255, 255, 255, .8);--weui-LINK: #7d90a9;--weui-TEXTGREEN: #259c5c;--weui-FG: #fff;--weui-BG: #000;--weui-TAG-TEXT-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .5);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .05)}}@media screen and (min-width:1024px) and (prefers-color-scheme:dark){body:not(.pages_skin_pc) .wx-root:not([data-weui-theme=light]),body:not(.pages_skin_pc) body:not([data-weui-theme=light]){--appmsgExtra-BG: #121212}}@media(prefers-color-scheme:dark){body:not([data-weui-theme=light]).my_comment_empty_data{background-color:#111}}body,.wx-root{--weui-BG-6: rgba(0, 0, 0, .05);--weui-ACTIVE-MASK: rgba(0, 0, 0, .05)}body,.wx-root{--weui-REDORANGE: #ff6146;--weui-BG-0: #ededed;--weui-BG-1: #f7f7f7;--weui-BG-2: #fff;--weui-BG-3: #f7f7f7;--weui-BG-4: #4c4c4c;--weui-BG-5: #fff;--weui-FG-0: rgba(0, 0, 0, .9);--weui-FG-HALF: rgba(0, 0, 0, .9);--weui-FG-1: rgba(0, 0, 0, .55);--weui-FG-2: rgba(0, 0, 0, .3);--weui-FG-3: rgba(0, 0, 0, .1);--weui-FG-4: rgba(0, 0, 0, .15);--weui-FG-5: rgba(0, 0, 0, .05);--weui-RED: #fa5151;--weui-ORANGERED: #ff6146;--weui-ORANGE: #fa9d3b;--weui-YELLOW: #ffc300;--weui-GREEN: #91d300;--weui-LIGHTGREEN: #95ec69;--weui-BRAND: #07c160;--weui-BLUE: #10aeff;--weui-INDIGO: #1485ee;--weui-PURPLE: #6467f0;--weui-WHITE: #fff;--weui-LINK: #576b95;--weui-TEXTGREEN: 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#10aeff;--weui-INDIGO: #1485ee;--weui-PURPLE: #6467f0;--weui-WHITE: #fff;--weui-LINK: #576b95;--weui-TEXTGREEN: #06ae56;--weui-FG: #000;--weui-BG: #fff;--weui-TAG-TEXT-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-ORANGE: #fa9d3b;--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-GREEN: #06ae56;--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLUE: #10aeff;--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLACK: rgba(0, 0, 0, .5);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLACK: rgba(0, 0, 0, .05)}.wx-root,body{--weui-BTN-ACTIVE-MASK: rgba(0, 0, 0, .1)}.wx-root,body{--weui-BTN-DEFAULT-ACTIVE-BG: #e6e6e6}.wx-root,body{--weui-DIALOG-LINE-COLOR: rgba(0, 0, 0, .1)}.wx-root,body{--weui-BG-COLOR-ACTIVE: #ececec}@media(prefers-color-scheme:dark){.wx-root:not([data-weui-theme=light]),body:not([data-weui-theme=light]){--weui-BTN-ACTIVE-MASK: rgba(255, 255, 255, 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.05)}}@media(prefers-color-scheme:dark){.wx-root:not([data-weui-theme=light]),body:not([data-weui-theme=light]){--appmsgExtra-BG: #121212}}.rich_media_content p{clear:both;min-height:1em}td p{margin:0;padding:0}*{margin:0;padding:0}.rich_media_content *{max-width:100%!important;box-sizing:border-box!important;-webkit-box-sizing:border-box!important;word-wrap:break-word!important}@media(prefers-color-scheme:dark){body:not([data-weui-theme=light]) .rich_media_content img:not(.wx_img_placeholder){filter:brightness(.8)}}@media screen and (min-width:1024px){body:not(.pages_skin_pc) :root{--appmsgPageGap: 20px;--appmsgPageBottomGap: 40px}}:root{--articleFontsize: 17px}:root{--sab: env(safe-area-inset-bottom)}:root{--wxBorderAvatarRatio: 3}:root{--discussPageGap: 20px}:root{--immersive-safe-bottom: env(safe-area-inset-bottom)}:root{--appmsgPageGap: 20px;--appmsgPageBottomGap: 40px}

div.autoTypeSetting24psection > p,div.autoTypeSetting24psection > section{margin-bottom: 24px;}