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龍年“開門紅”!A股春季攻勢開啟?

龍年“開門紅”!A股春季攻勢開啟?

2月19日,龍年A股首個交易日迎來“開門紅”。滬指高開高走漲近1%,盤中一度站上2900點;深成指、創業闆指紅盤運作,黃白二線分化明顯。總體來看,個股漲多跌少,兩市上漲個股近4000隻,超160股漲停。

闆塊方面,AI概念股全線爆發,Sora概念領漲,個股掀起漲停潮,當虹科技、因賽集團、易點天下等近十股集體封闆;傳媒股跟随走高,算力、CPO概念股盤中拉升,煤炭、勢頭等高股息概念股維持強勢,旅遊股表現活躍,券商股則出現部分調整。

機構認為,流動性循環連鎖負回報在節前強有力的外力幹預下已經結束,1月以來經濟運作平穩中不乏亮點,政策在今年有望更加靈活應變,當下投資者情緒有所企穩,科技主題湧現新催化劑,建議在反彈過程中步步為營,密切關注右側确認信号,配置上從純防禦轉向均衡,圍繞優質紅利藍籌和科創成長兩條主線布局。

多元度向好信号釋放

實際上就在19日開市前,政策、外圍市場、中國資産等多方面均已釋放出龍年“開門紅”信号。

2月18日,央行公告,為維護銀行體系流動性合理充裕,開展1050億元公開市場逆回購操作和5000億元中期借貸便利(MLF)操作,利率分别維持1.8%、2.5%。由于本月MLF到期規模為4990億元,央行續作5000億元,是以本月MLF操作實為小幅增量平價續作。截至目前,央行已連續15個月增量續作MLF。

2月4日至9日期間,證監會官網針對推動上市公司提升投資價值、支援彙金入市、嚴懲欺詐發行等釋出15條要聞,強調充分運用好股份回購、大股東增持、常态化分紅、并購重組等提升投資價值“工具箱”,積極維護市場穩定,提振投資者信心。

外圍市場方面,春節假期亞太市場股指多數上漲,日經225指數累計漲逾4%,南韓綜合指數、印度SENSEX30指數均累計漲逾1%,其中,中國資産表現尤為亮眼,納斯達克中國金龍指數大漲5.75%,恒生科技指數上漲5.50%,富時中國A50指數期貨漲1.82%,并創出兩個多月新高。

與此同時,ETF成交量放大,資金持續入市,境内ETF市場規模總計突破2萬億元,創曆史紀錄,相關産品也不斷推向市場。就在19日,富國基金、銀華基金雙雙發行中證A50ETF基金産品,搶抓中國市場“回春”機遇,專注A股核心資産,打響龍年第一槍。

A股仍在企穩改善初期

研判後續市場走勢,東興基金認為,春節假期期間,A50和香港市場漲幅均好于海外整體表現。國内經濟資料在低預期下的改善對于提振市場風險偏好有重要意義。往後看,市場仍然在風險偏好企穩改善的初期,後續需要關注資本市場改革方向,以及春節開工來臨後的資料成色。如果在财政發力、三大工程提振,以及消費意願的改善下經濟繼續好于市場前期預期,則指數反彈高度有望看高一線。

農銀彙理基金表示,目前A股市場估值水準已處于曆史低位,中長期投資價值凸顯,流動性寬松周期逐漸開始,預計後續将吸引更多增量資金進入。同時,國内經濟已處于複蘇階段,随着春節過後各行業企業複工複産,生産制造資料将企穩回升,企業盈利水準也将逐漸恢複,A股“盈利底”确認,市場即将進入磨底期末尾階段。經過近期利好政策頻繁釋放,國内流動性愈發寬松,房地産業開始回暖,資本市場制度不斷改善,疊加各類機構投資者加大力度入市,市場有望迎來V型反轉。

彙豐晉信基金指出,中央彙金對A股的支援讓投資者看到了管理層的決心和支援力度,投資者情緒和信心均顯著好轉。随着節前市場成交量重新突破萬億,市場活躍度正在提升,流動性對于市場的困擾或将消除,基本面有望成為未來市場主線。後續投資者可以從基本面超預期修複、政策重點支援等角度挖掘市場新的機遇。

摩根士丹利基金分析,短期A股市場并非基本面問題,而是投資者信心問題,節前監管層多措并舉,市場信心得到修複。證監會重錘出擊違法違規行為,對相關主體的處罰展現了“以投資者為本”的監管思路,預計對市場情緒能夠起到正面作用。後續看,市場賺錢效應有望提升。以AI為代表的科技、高端制造、醫藥等領域值得看好,而經營穩健、現金流充裕、具備提高分紅能力的公司仍然具備很好的配置價值。

國防軍工、AI等值得關注

銀華基金表示,根據行業輪動模型計算,目前推薦國防軍工、非銀行金融、有色金屬、鋼鐵、銀行等行業。其中國防軍工闆塊經過年度調整,配置的勝率、賠率兼具。對于軍機賽道,利潤配置設定重塑下遊盈利水準持續提升,外貿打開局面錨定長期空間。對于軍工行業主賽道,可重點聚焦需求反轉後潛在超預期領域,以及新方向産業轉化0-1投資機遇。

長盛基金研判,2024年有望進入補庫存周期,企業盈利彈性提升。綜合盈利所處周期位置,結合估值情況,建議關注三條主線:一是增長預期下,具備估值修複邏輯的工業金屬、化工龍頭、建材、消費白馬龍頭、醫療服務;二是主題活躍+海外映射+資金流入的醫藥闆塊;三是AI驅動,疊加半導體周期回升帶動下,電子、計算機的潛在結構性機會,以及智能駕駛從1-N階段帶動汽車、零部件、汽車電子、計算機的結構性機會。

西部利得基金認為,近期政策調整積極改善市場流動性環境和投資者信心,市場估值仍然處于曆史較低位置。在國内經濟逐漸企穩、AI人工智能驅動的新一輪科技創新有望帶動全球經濟新一輪增長背景下,中期反彈機會可期。建議關注AI硬體及下遊應用、智能汽車、綠色制造業等新質生産力;此外,調整充分的困境反轉、有明确周期拐點類的行業也值得關注。

金鷹基金建議,行業配置上,重點關注受益流動性和風偏改善的超跌成長方向,消費等核心資産亦會有估值修複。科技制造方面,超跌反彈過程中可關注受益外部流動性改善、具有産業趨勢的醫藥、電子行業,此外AI、衛星網際網路、智能駕駛、機器人等科技主題亦值得關注。順周期闆塊中,高股息政策短期超額收益或落後,但預計回調空間有限,短期建議關注受益春節景氣向上的酒店、航空等出行消費的階段性機會,同時食品飲料等核心資産也會有所修複,出口鍊機會可逢低布局。

(提示:上述資訊僅供參考,不作為具體操作建議。市場有風險,投資需謹慎。)

作者:勻音

編輯:王一川

監制:吳芃

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rgba(16, 174, 255, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .5);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .05)}}@media screen and (min-width:1024px){body:not(.pages_skin_pc) .wx-root,body:not(.pages_skin_pc) body{--appmsgExtra-BG: #F7F7F7}}@media screen and (min-width:1024px){body:not(.pages_skin_pc) .wx-root[data-weui-theme=dark],body:not(.pages_skin_pc) body[data-weui-theme=dark]{--weui-BG-0: #111;--weui-BG-1: #1e1e1e;--weui-BG-2: #191919;--weui-BG-3: #202020;--weui-BG-4: #404040;--weui-BG-5: #2c2c2c;--weui-FG-0: rgba(255, 255, 255, .8);--weui-FG-HALF: rgba(255, 255, 255, .6);--weui-FG-1: rgba(255, 255, 255, .5);--weui-FG-2: rgba(255, 255, 255, .3);--weui-FG-3: rgba(255, 255, 255, .1);--weui-FG-4: rgba(255, 255, 255, .15);--weui-FG-5: rgba(255, 255, 255, .1);--weui-RED: #fa5151;--weui-ORANGERED: #ff6146;--weui-ORANGE: #c87d2f;--weui-YELLOW: #cc9c00;--weui-GREEN: #74a800;--weui-LIGHTGREEN: #3eb575;--weui-BRAND: #07c160;--weui-BLUE: #10aeff;--weui-INDIGO: #1196ff;--weui-PURPLE: #8183ff;--weui-WHITE: rgba(255, 255, 255, .8);--weui-LINK: #7d90a9;--weui-TEXTGREEN: #259c5c;--weui-FG: #fff;--weui-BG: #000;--weui-TAG-TEXT-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .5);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .05)}}@media screen and (min-width:1024px){body:not(.pages_skin_pc) .wx-root[data-weui-theme=dark],body:not(.pages_skin_pc) body[data-weui-theme=dark]{--appmsgExtra-BG: #121212}}@media screen and (min-width:1024px){body:not(.pages_skin_pc)body:not(.pages_skin_pc){background:var(--weui-BG-2)}}@media screen and (min-width:1024px) and (prefers-color-scheme:dark){body:not(.pages_skin_pc) .wx-root[data-weui-mode=care]:not([data-weui-theme=light]),body:not(.pages_skin_pc) body[data-weui-mode=care]:not([data-weui-theme=light]){--weui-BG-0: #111;--weui-BG-1: #1e1e1e;--weui-BG-2: #191919;--weui-BG-3: #202020;--weui-BG-4: #404040;--weui-BG-5: #2c2c2c;--weui-FG-0: rgba(255, 255, 255, .85);--weui-FG-HALF: rgba(255, 255, 255, .65);--weui-FG-1: rgba(255, 255, 255, .55);--weui-FG-2: rgba(255, 255, 255, .35);--weui-FG-3: rgba(255, 255, 255, .1);--weui-FG-4: rgba(255, 255, 255, .15);--weui-FG-5: rgba(255, 255, 255, .1);--weui-RED: #fa5151;--weui-ORANGERED: #ff6146;--weui-ORANGE: #c87d2f;--weui-YELLOW: #cc9c00;--weui-GREEN: #74a800;--weui-LIGHTGREEN: #3eb575;--weui-BRAND: #07c160;--weui-BLUE: #10aeff;--weui-INDIGO: #1196ff;--weui-PURPLE: #8183ff;--weui-WHITE: rgba(255, 255, 255, .8);--weui-LINK: #7d90a9;--weui-TEXTGREEN: #259c5c;--weui-FG: #fff;--weui-BG: #000;--weui-TAG-TEXT-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .5);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .05)}}@media screen and (min-width:1024px) and (prefers-color-scheme:dark){body:not(.pages_skin_pc) .wx-root:not([data-weui-theme=light]),body:not(.pages_skin_pc) body:not([data-weui-theme=light]){--weui-BG-0: #111;--weui-BG-1: #1e1e1e;--weui-BG-2: #191919;--weui-BG-3: #202020;--weui-BG-4: #404040;--weui-BG-5: #2c2c2c;--weui-FG-0: rgba(255, 255, 255, .8);--weui-FG-HALF: rgba(255, 255, 255, .6);--weui-FG-1: rgba(255, 255, 255, .5);--weui-FG-2: rgba(255, 255, 255, .3);--weui-FG-3: rgba(255, 255, 255, .1);--weui-FG-4: rgba(255, 255, 255, .15);--weui-FG-5: rgba(255, 255, 255, .1);--weui-RED: #fa5151;--weui-ORANGERED: #ff6146;--weui-ORANGE: #c87d2f;--weui-YELLOW: #cc9c00;--weui-GREEN: #74a800;--weui-LIGHTGREEN: #3eb575;--weui-BRAND: #07c160;--weui-BLUE: #10aeff;--weui-INDIGO: #1196ff;--weui-PURPLE: #8183ff;--weui-WHITE: rgba(255, 255, 255, .8);--weui-LINK: #7d90a9;--weui-TEXTGREEN: #259c5c;--weui-FG: #fff;--weui-BG: #000;--weui-TAG-TEXT-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .5);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .05)}}@media screen and (min-width:1024px) and (prefers-color-scheme:dark){body:not(.pages_skin_pc) .wx-root:not([data-weui-theme=light]),body:not(.pages_skin_pc) body:not([data-weui-theme=light]){--appmsgExtra-BG: #121212}}@media(prefers-color-scheme:dark){body:not([data-weui-theme=light]).my_comment_empty_data{background-color:#111}}body,.wx-root{--weui-BG-6: rgba(0, 0, 0, .05);--weui-ACTIVE-MASK: rgba(0, 0, 0, .05)}body,.wx-root{--weui-REDORANGE: #ff6146;--weui-BG-0: #ededed;--weui-BG-1: #f7f7f7;--weui-BG-2: #fff;--weui-BG-3: #f7f7f7;--weui-BG-4: #4c4c4c;--weui-BG-5: #fff;--weui-FG-0: rgba(0, 0, 0, .9);--weui-FG-HALF: rgba(0, 0, 0, .9);--weui-FG-1: rgba(0, 0, 0, .55);--weui-FG-2: rgba(0, 0, 0, .3);--weui-FG-3: rgba(0, 0, 0, .1);--weui-FG-4: rgba(0, 0, 0, .15);--weui-FG-5: rgba(0, 0, 0, .05);--weui-RED: #fa5151;--weui-ORANGERED: #ff6146;--weui-ORANGE: #fa9d3b;--weui-YELLOW: #ffc300;--weui-GREEN: #91d300;--weui-LIGHTGREEN: #95ec69;--weui-BRAND: #07c160;--weui-BLUE: #10aeff;--weui-INDIGO: #1485ee;--weui-PURPLE: #6467f0;--weui-WHITE: #fff;--weui-LINK: #576b95;--weui-TEXTGREEN: 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#10aeff;--weui-INDIGO: #1485ee;--weui-PURPLE: #6467f0;--weui-WHITE: #fff;--weui-LINK: #576b95;--weui-TEXTGREEN: #06ae56;--weui-FG: #000;--weui-BG: #fff;--weui-TAG-TEXT-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-ORANGE: #fa9d3b;--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-GREEN: #06ae56;--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLUE: #10aeff;--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLACK: rgba(0, 0, 0, .5);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLACK: rgba(0, 0, 0, .05)}.wx-root,body{--weui-BTN-ACTIVE-MASK: rgba(0, 0, 0, .1)}.wx-root,body{--weui-BTN-DEFAULT-ACTIVE-BG: #e6e6e6}.wx-root,body{--weui-DIALOG-LINE-COLOR: rgba(0, 0, 0, .1)}.wx-root,body{--weui-BG-COLOR-ACTIVE: #ececec}@media(prefers-color-scheme:dark){.wx-root:not([data-weui-theme=light]),body:not([data-weui-theme=light]){--weui-BTN-ACTIVE-MASK: rgba(255, 255, 255, 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.05)}}@media(prefers-color-scheme:dark){.wx-root:not([data-weui-theme=light]),body:not([data-weui-theme=light]){--appmsgExtra-BG: #121212}}.rich_media_content p{clear:both;min-height:1em}td p{margin:0;padding:0}*{margin:0;padding:0}.rich_media_content *{max-width:100%!important;box-sizing:border-box!important;-webkit-box-sizing:border-box!important;word-wrap:break-word!important}@media(prefers-color-scheme:dark){body:not([data-weui-theme=light]) .rich_media_content img:not(.wx_img_placeholder){filter:brightness(.8)}}@media screen and (min-width:1024px){body:not(.pages_skin_pc) :root{--appmsgPageGap: 20px;--appmsgPageBottomGap: 40px}}:root{--articleFontsize: 17px}:root{--sab: env(safe-area-inset-bottom)}:root{--wxBorderAvatarRatio: 3}:root{--discussPageGap: 20px}:root{--immersive-safe-bottom: env(safe-area-inset-bottom)}:root{--appmsgPageGap: 20px;--appmsgPageBottomGap: 40px}

div.autoTypeSetting24psection > p,div.autoTypeSetting24psection > section{margin-bottom: 24px;}