The Year of the Dragon is off to a good start! The A-share spring offensive begins?

On February 19, the first trading day of A-shares in the Year of the Dragon ushered in a "good start". The Shanghai Composite Index opened higher and rose nearly 1%, once standing above 2,900 points in the intraday, while the Shenzhen Component Index and the ChiNext Index were running in the red, and the yellow and white lines were clearly differentiated. Overall, stocks rose more and fell less, with nearly 4,000 stocks rising in the two cities and more than 160 shares up and down.

In terms of sectors, AI concept stocks broke out across the board, Sora concept led the rise, individual stocks set off a tide of daily limits, and nearly ten shares such as Danghong Technology, Insai Group, and Yidian Tianxia collectively closed the board; media stocks followed higher, computing power and CPO concept stocks rose intraday, high-dividend concept stocks such as coal and momentum remained strong, tourism stocks were active, and brokerage stocks were partially adjusted.

The agency believes that the liquidity cycle chain negative feedback has ended under the strong external intervention before the holiday, and there are many bright spots in the stable economic operation since January, and the policy is expected to be more flexible and adaptable this year.

Multi-dimensional positive signal release

In fact, just before the market opened on the 19th, policies, external markets, Chinese assets and other aspects have released a "good start" signal for the Year of the Dragon.

On February 18, the central bank announced that in order to maintain reasonable and sufficient liquidity in the banking system, it will carry out 105 billion yuan of open market reverse repurchase operations and 500 billion yuan of medium-term lending facilities (MLF) operations, with interest rates maintained at 1.8% and 2.5% respectively. Since the maturity scale of MLF this month is 499 billion yuan, and the central bank will renew it by 500 billion yuan, this month's MLF operation is actually a small incremental parity continuation. So far, the central bank has continued to make MLF incrementally for 15 consecutive months.

From February 4 to 9, the official website of the China Securities Regulatory Commission issued 15 important news on promoting listed companies to enhance investment value, supporting Huijin to enter the market, and severely punishing fraudulent issuance, emphasizing that it should make full use of the "toolbox" to enhance investment value such as share repurchases, major shareholder increases, normalized dividends, mergers and acquisitions, etc., to actively maintain market stability and boost investor confidence.

In terms of external markets, most of the stock indexes in the Asia-Pacific market rose during the Spring Festival holiday, with the Nikkei 225 Index rising more than 4%, the South Korean Composite Index and the Indian SENSEX30 Index all rising more than 1%, among them, China's assets performed particularly well, with the Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index rising 5.75%, the Hang Seng Technology Index rising 5.50%, and the FTSE China A50 Index futures rising 1.82%, and hitting a new high in more than two months.

At the same time, the trading volume of ETFs has expanded, funds have continued to enter the market, and the total scale of the domestic ETF market has exceeded 2 trillion yuan, setting a historical record, and related products have also been continuously introduced to the market. On the 19th, Wells Fargo Fund and Yinhua Fund both issued CSI A50 ETF fund products to seize the opportunity of "rejuvenation" in the Chinese market, focus on A-share core assets, and fire the first shot of the Year of the Dragon.

A-shares are still in the early stages of stabilization and improvement

Judging the follow-up market trend, Dongxing Fund believes that during the Spring Festival holiday, the A50 and Hong Kong markets rose better than the overall overseas performance. The improvement in domestic economic data under low expectations is of great significance to boost market risk appetite. Looking ahead, the market is still in the early stage of risk appetite stabilization and improvement, and it is necessary to pay attention to the direction of capital market reform and the data quality after the start of the Spring Festival. If the economy continues to be better than the market expected under the improvement of fiscal strength, the three major projects, and the improvement of consumption willingness, the index rebound is expected to be high.

ABC Credit Management Fund said that the current valuation level of the A-share market has been at a historical low, the value of medium and long-term investment is highlighted, and the liquidity easing cycle has gradually begun, and it is expected to attract more incremental funds in the future. At the same time, the domestic economy has been in the recovery stage, with the resumption of work and production of enterprises in various industries after the Spring Festival, the production and manufacturing data will stabilize and rebound, and the profitability of enterprises will gradually recover. After the recent frequent release of favorable policies, domestic liquidity has become more and more relaxed, the real estate industry has begun to pick up, the capital market system has been continuously improved, and various institutional investors have increased their efforts to enter the market, and the market is expected to usher in a V-shaped reversal.

HSBC Jinxin Fund pointed out that Central Huijin's support for A-shares has shown investors the determination and support of the management, and investor sentiment and confidence have improved significantly. As the pre-holiday market turnover re-exceeds one trillion yuan, the market activity is improving, the problem of liquidity for the market may be eliminated, and fundamentals are expected to become the main line of the market in the future. Follow-up investors can explore new opportunities in the market from the perspectives of unexpected repair of fundamentals and key policy support.

According to Morgan Stanley Fund analysis, the short-term A-share market is not a fundamental problem, but a problem of investor confidence. The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) has cracked down on violations of laws and regulations, and the penalties imposed on relevant entities reflect the "investor-oriented" regulatory thinking, which is expected to play a positive role in market sentiment. In the future, the market-making effect is expected to increase. The fields of technology, high-end manufacturing, and pharmaceuticals represented by AI are worth looking forward to, while companies with stable operations, abundant cash flow, and the ability to increase dividends still have good allocation value.

National defense and military industry, AI, etc. are worth paying attention to

Yinhua Fund said that according to the calculation of the industry rotation model, it is currently recommended for national defense and military industry, non-bank finance, non-ferrous metals, steel, banking and other industries. Among them, the national defense and military industry sector has undergone annual adjustments, and the winning rate and odds of the configuration have both. For the military aircraft track, profit distribution reshapes the downstream profitability level and continues to improve, and foreign trade opens up the situation to anchor the long-term space. For the main track of the military industry, we can focus on the areas that may exceed expectations after the demand reversal, as well as the 0-1 investment opportunities for industrial transformation in new directions.

Changsheng Fund believes that 2024 is expected to enter the inventory replenishment cycle, and the profitability elasticity of enterprises will be improved. The cyclical position of comprehensive earnings, combined with the valuation situation, it is recommended to pay attention to three main lines: first, under the growth expectation, industrial metals, chemical leaders, building materials, consumer white horse leaders, and medical services with valuation repair logic; second, the pharmaceutical sector with active themes + overseas mapping + capital inflow; third, the potential structural opportunities of electronics and computers driven by AI-driven and superimposed semiconductor cycle recovery, as well as the structural opportunities for intelligent driving to drive automobiles, parts, automotive electronics, and computers from the 1-N stage.

Western Profit Fund believes that the recent policy adjustment has positively improved the market liquidity environment and investor confidence, and the market valuation is still at a historically low level. In the context of the gradual stabilization of the domestic economy and the new round of scientific and technological innovation driven by AI and artificial intelligence, which is expected to drive a new round of global economic growth, there are opportunities for a medium-term rebound. It is recommended to pay attention to new productivity such as AI hardware and downstream applications, smart cars, and green manufacturing, in addition, industries with sufficient adjustment of dilemma reversal and clear cycle inflection points are also worth paying attention to.

The Golden Eagle Fund suggests that in terms of industry allocation, focus on the super-falling growth direction that benefits from the improvement of liquidity and wind bias, and the valuation of core assets such as consumption will also be repaired. In terms of technology manufacturing, in the process of rebounding, we can pay attention to the pharmaceutical and electronics industries that benefit from the improvement of external liquidity and have industrial trends, in addition to AI, satellite Internet, intelligent driving, robotics and other technology themes are also worth paying attention to. In the pro-cyclical sector, the high-dividend strategy may lag behind in the short term, but it is expected that the correction space is limited, and it is recommended to pay attention to the phased opportunities of travel consumption such as hotels and airlines that benefit from the upward trend of the Spring Festival, while core assets such as food and beverages will also be repaired, and the opportunities in the export chain can be laid out on dips.

(Note: The above information is for reference only and is not intended as a specific operation recommendation.) The market is risky, and investors need to be cautious. ）

Author: Yunyin

Editor: Wang Yichuan

Producer: Wu Peng

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#fff;--weui-BG-3: #f7f7f7;--weui-BG-4: #4c4c4c;--weui-BG-5: #fff;--weui-FG-0: rgba(0, 0, 0, .. 9);--weui-FG-HALF: rgba(0, 0, 0, .9);--weui-FG-1: rgba(0, 0, 0, .55);--weui-FG-2: rgba(0, 0, 0, .3);--weui-FG-3: rgba(0, 0, 0, .1);--weui-FG-4: rgba(0, 0, 0, .15);--weui-FG-5: rgba(0, 0, 0, .05);--weui-RED: #fa5151;--weui-ORANGERED: #ff6146;--weui-ORANGE: #fa9d3b;--weui-YELLOW: #ffc300;--weui-GREEN: #91d300;--weui-LIGHTGREEN: #95ec69;--weui-FIRE: #07c160;--weui-BLUE: #10aeff;--weui-INDIGO: #1485ee;--weui-PURPLE: #6467f0;--weui-WHITE: #fff;;--weui-LINK: #576b95;--weui-TEXTGREEN: #06ae56;--weui-FG: #000;--weui-BG: #fff;--weui-TAG-TEXT-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-ORANGE: #fa9d3b;--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-GREEN: #06ae56;--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLUE: #10aeff;--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLACK: rgba(0, 0, 0, .. 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div.autoTypeSetting24psection > p,div.autoTypeSetting24psection > section{margin-bottom: 24px;}