沪指跌破2800点，怀抱希望，期待春节躁动

1月18日，沪指盘中跌破2800点。2800点作为整数点位依然会有心理支撑，短期内再次大幅下跌至2700点的概率较小了。有些朋友已经对股市不抱希望了，认为全年下跌，一点反弹都没有。正如我相信2024年A股没有大机会，1月A股会有一波大跌一样，我还是抱有希望，认为春节前后会有一波春季躁动。从历史数据来看，回顾2007年股权分置改革完成以来A股的表现，可以发现2月股市大概率上涨：在2月万得全A指数上涨的概率为70.6%，万得全A等权指数上涨的概率为88.2%。（具体行业统计见《短期调整不会冲击春季躁动——春季躁动的特征、成因与幻灭

》）。当然，最稳健的方式还是买右侧，短期底部确认了再进，春节躁动不会是短期机会，没必要抢跑。至于北证，流通盘太小，容易被人联合操纵股价，更适合投机者。

春季躁动的成因：风险偏好上，春节长假和2月经济数据真空带来的不确定性要求风险补偿，人性也会在部分时刻对未来充满乐观期待；政策面，3月两会使得政策预期友好；与小盘股与成长股上涨概率较高契合；资金面上，央行一般都会加大公开市场操作力度呵护市场流动性平稳，减仓避险资金在节后会加大配置力度。虽然上市公司年报预告通常会在1月底到2月底附近披露，但是亏损股表现较好表明企业业绩不是2月股市上涨的原因。房地产、银行、非银金融的上涨概率较低，表明稳增长政策不是2月股市上涨的原因。农林牧渔、纺织服饰表现较好可能是春节带动消费的季节性因素，电子、计算机、机械设备、环保等行业符合经济转型升级和创新发展的方向。

2007年以来春季躁动幻灭发生了五次，2016年和2018年依然存在阶段性机会，2020年、2021年和2023年则呈现结构性机会。2016年1月29日万得全A触底后开始反弹，至2月24日单月上涨10.63%。但受传闻注册制即将推出和多家上市公司大股东减持的影响，2月25日和2月29日万得全A分别大跌7.86%和4.87%，使得整个2月股市呈下跌状态。2018年1月底，部分上市公司业绩地雷频发，北上资金开始流出，1月29日万得全A开始持续下跌，2月初美股持续大跌进一步冲击A股市场情绪。2月12日万得全A触底后开始反弹，至2月底反弹幅度达6.22%，但整个2月股市仍呈下跌状态。银行、非银金融、地产、食品饮料等板块的大跌使得大盘价值表现不佳。2020年2月3日节后第一天，受新冠疫情冲击，万得全A大跌8.16%，尽管2月4日开始反弹至2月25日，但受欧美股市暴跌拖累，2月28日万得全A再跌4.45%，使得整个2月股市小幅收跌。2021年2月1日至2月18日，万得全A震荡上涨。2月22日，美债上行导致美股自2月16日触顶后开始大幅下跌，诱发国内高估值的抱团股破灭，万得全A持续下行，整个2月股市小幅收跌。2023年2月，注册制正式落地导致部分资金避险观望，量化资金减仓策略放大了技术性调整的影响，万得全A先涨后跌，最终全月下跌0.02%。在CHATGPT的刺激下，通信、计算机、传媒等小盘成长板块表现较好，全A等权上涨3.04%。

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