The Shanghai Composite Index fell below 2,800 points, holding out hope and looking forward to the restlessness of the Spring Festival

On January 18, the Shanghai Composite Index fell below 2,800 points intraday. 2800 points as an integer point will still have psychological support, and the probability of another sharp decline to 2700 points in the short term is smaller. Some friends have lost hope in the stock market, believing that the whole year has fallen and there has been no rebound at all. Just as I believe that there will be no big opportunities for A-shares in 2024 and that there will be a wave of sharp declines in A-shares in January, I still hold out hope that there will be a wave of spring restlessness around the Spring Festival. From the perspective of historical data, looking back at the performance of A-shares since the completion of the equity division reform in 2007, it can be found that the stock market has a high probability of rising in February: the probability of the Wind All A Index rising in February is 70.6%, and the probability of the Wind All A equal weight index rising is 88.2%. (For specific industry statistics, see "Short-term Adjustment Will Not Impact Spring Restlessness - Characteristics, Causes and Disillusionment of Spring Restlessness.")

》）。 Of course, the most stable way is to buy the right side, the short-term bottom is confirmed and then entered, the Spring Festival restlessness will not be a short-term opportunity, there is no need to rush. As for the Beijing Stock Exchange, the circulating stock is too small, and it is easy to be jointly manipulated by others, which is more suitable for speculators.

Causes of spring restlessness: In terms of risk appetite, the uncertainty caused by the Spring Festival holiday and the economic data vacuum in February requires risk compensation, and human nature will be full of optimistic expectations for the future at some moments; Although the annual report forecast of listed companies is usually disclosed around the end of January to the end of February, the better performance of loss-making stocks indicates that corporate performance was not the reason for the stock market rally in February. Real estate, banks, and non-bank financial institutions have a low probability of rising, indicating that the policy of stabilizing growth was not the reason for the stock market rally in February. The good performance of agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, textiles and apparel may be the seasonal factors that drive consumption during the Spring Festival, and the electronics, computers, machinery and equipment, environmental protection and other industries are in line with the direction of economic transformation and upgrading and innovative development.

Spring disillusionment has occurred five times since 2007, with phased opportunities still present in 2016 and 2018, and structural opportunities in 2020, 2021 and 2023. On January 29, 2016, Wind All A bottomed out and began to rebound, rising 10.63% in a single month to February 24. However, due to the rumors that the registration system is about to be launched and the major shareholders of a number of listed companies have reduced their holdings, Wind All A fell by 7.86% and 4.87% respectively on February 25 and February 29, making the stock market fall throughout February. At the end of January 2018, the performance of some listed companies was frequent, and northbound funds began to flow out, and on January 29, Wind All A began to continue to fall, and in early February, the U.S. stock market continued to fall sharply, further impacting the A-share market sentiment. Wind All A bottomed out on February 12 and began to rebound, with a rebound of 6.22% by the end of February, but the stock market remained down throughout February. The sharp decline in banking, non-bank financials, real estate, food and beverage and other sectors made the value of the broader market underperform. On February 3, 2020, the first day after the holiday, due to the impact of the new crown epidemic, Wind All A fell 8.16%, although it began to rebound to February 25 on February 4, but dragged down by the collapse of European and American stock markets, Wind All A fell another 4.45% on February 28, making the stock market close slightly lower in February. From February 1 to February 18, 2021, Wind All A fluctuated and rose. On February 22, the rise in U.S. bonds caused U.S. stocks to fall sharply after peaking on February 16, inducing the collapse of domestic high-valuation huddle stocks, Wind All A continued to decline, and the stock market closed slightly lower throughout February. In February 2023, the official implementation of the registration system led to some funds to avoid risk, and the quantitative fund reduction strategy amplified the impact of technical adjustments. STIMULATED BY CHATGPT, SMALL-CAP GROWTH SECTORS SUCH AS COMMUNICATIONS, COMPUTERS, AND MEDIA PERFORMED BETTER, WITH ALL A-EQUAL WEIGHTS RISING 3.04%.

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