研究小组利用一个完整的数据集，包括匿名的位置数据、COVID-19病例数据和人口普查信息，来研究COVID-19对人类流动性的影响。研究发现，与社会距离相关的统计数据，如出行率、人均出行里程、居家人口比例等，都呈现出一种意想不到的趋势，我们称之为社会距离惯性。趋势显示，无论政府采取什么行动，只要观察到COVID-19病例，统计数字就开始改善。这表明，有一部分人能够并且愿意主动地、自然地对COVID-19病例的出现做出反应。然而，大约两周后，尽管COVID-19病例持续增加，但统计数据趋于饱和并停止改善。研究表明，人们对社交距离有一种自然的行为惯性，这限制了与社交距离相关的统计数据的改善程度。全国性的数据表明，惯性现象是普遍存在的，在美国所有的州和所有研究的统计数据中都存在这种现象。美国各州显示出了同步的趋势，而不管它们在全州范围内的COVID-19病例扩散或政府命令的时间表如何。
原文题目：Observed mobility behavior data reveal social distancing inertia
原文：The research team has utilized an integrated dataset, consisting of anonymized location data, COVID-19 case data, and census population information, to study the impact of COVID-19 on human mobility. The study revealed that statistics related to social distancing, namely trip rate, miles traveled per person, and percentage of population staying at home have all showed an unexpected trend, which we named social distancing inertia. The trends showed that as soon as COVID-19 cases were observed, the statistics started improving, regardless of government actions. This suggests that a portion of population who could and were willing to practice social distancing voluntarily and naturally reacted to the emergence of COVID-19 cases. However, after about two weeks, the statistics saturated and stopped improving, despite the continuous rise in COVID-19 cases. The study suggests that there is a natural behavior inertia toward social distancing, which puts a limit on the extent of improvement in the social-distancing-related statistics. The national data showed that the inertia phenomenon is universal, happening in all the U.S. states and for all the studied statistics. The U.S. states showed a synchronized trend, regardless of the timeline of their statewide COVID-19 case spreads or government orders.
原文作者： Sepehr Ghader, Jun Zhao, Minha Lee, Weiyi Zhou, Guangchen Zhao, Lei Zhang
原文地址：https://arxiv.org/abs/2004.14748
观察到的移动行为数据揭示了社会距离惯性.pdf