研究小組利用一個完整的資料集，包括匿名的位置資料、COVID-19病例資料和人口普查資訊，來研究COVID-19對人類流動性的影響。研究發現，與社會距離相關的統計資料，如出行率、人均出行裡程、居家人口比例等，都呈現出一種意想不到的趨勢，我們稱之為社會距離慣性。趨勢顯示，無論政府采取什麼行動，隻要觀察到COVID-19病例，統計數字就開始改善。這表明，有一部分人能夠并且願意主動地、自然地對COVID-19病例的出現做出反應。然而，大約兩周後，盡管COVID-19病例持續增加，但統計資料趨于飽和并停止改善。研究表明，人們對社交距離有一種自然的行為慣性，這限制了與社交距離相關的統計資料的改善程度。全國性的資料表明，慣性現象是普遍存在的，在美國所有的州和所有研究的統計資料中都存在這種現象。美國各州顯示出了同步的趨勢，而不管它們在全州範圍内的COVID-19病例擴散或政府指令的時間表如何。
原文題目：Observed mobility behavior data reveal social distancing inertia
原文：The research team has utilized an integrated dataset, consisting of anonymized location data, COVID-19 case data, and census population information, to study the impact of COVID-19 on human mobility. The study revealed that statistics related to social distancing, namely trip rate, miles traveled per person, and percentage of population staying at home have all showed an unexpected trend, which we named social distancing inertia. The trends showed that as soon as COVID-19 cases were observed, the statistics started improving, regardless of government actions. This suggests that a portion of population who could and were willing to practice social distancing voluntarily and naturally reacted to the emergence of COVID-19 cases. However, after about two weeks, the statistics saturated and stopped improving, despite the continuous rise in COVID-19 cases. The study suggests that there is a natural behavior inertia toward social distancing, which puts a limit on the extent of improvement in the social-distancing-related statistics. The national data showed that the inertia phenomenon is universal, happening in all the U.S. states and for all the studied statistics. The U.S. states showed a synchronized trend, regardless of the timeline of their statewide COVID-19 case spreads or government orders.
原文作者： Sepehr Ghader, Jun Zhao, Minha Lee, Weiyi Zhou, Guangchen Zhao, Lei Zhang
原文位址：https://arxiv.org/abs/2004.14748
觀察到的移動行為資料揭示了社會距離慣性.pdf