As the saying goes, as soon as an expert makes a shot, he knows whether there is one or not. This time, the quantitative team of one of the "three carriages" of the two rich families came out with 3 experts to talk about the clever gameplay of ETF, and "directed" the way for the guest officer for the second half of the year.
Etf This category has been hot since last year, has the guest officer bought it? Is there more category on the product side? How can you do a better investment experience? What are the suggestions for the timing of the plate? These questions, "Quantitative Three Jie" gathered together, one by one to the guest officer to answer!
Wang Baohe: ETF is the best tool for asset allocation Smart beta products have a broad space for development
Wang Baohe mainly expressed how to optimize ETF products for the A-share market, and its core view is that ETF is the best tool for asset allocation, and smart beta products have a broad space for development.
What are the advantages of etf products? Wang Baohe summed up three major points.
➤ First, etf as a trading fund, compared with the general fund, its advantage lies in flexibility, as long as you have a stock account can do transactions; compared with the subscription fee and redemption fee when applying for the general fund, etf transaction fee is lower;
➤ Second, operational transparency, etf funds will publish their positions on a daily basis, improving the transparency of the entire operation process
➤ Third, the etf fund has a small tracking error and can better achieve the purpose of copying the index.
For the rapid rise in the scale of ETFs at the end of last year, Wang Baohe believes that it is mainly due to the declining yield of bank wealth management products in recent years, and banks are facing a large asset shortage problem. Through the traditional institutions to buy bonds, non-standard has been unable to maintain the yield of wealth management products, institutional investment philosophy began to shift to asset allocation.
He stressed: "The tool with better asset allocation is ETF, which is an important reason for the rapid growth of ETF scale. ”
Starting from the types of ETFs and their development status, Wang Baohe pointed out that in the United States, the broad-based index, the industry index, and the smart beta index are in a three-legged situation. Compared with China, the broad-based index accounted for 73%, the industry index accounted for 23%, and the smart beta accounted for a relatively small proportion in China. Therefore, with the maturity of China's capital market, there will be a very large space for smart beta products in the future.
"If investors have a certain judgment on the market growth value style, they may choose this type of smart beta product." He suggested.
Talking about the competition of fund companies in ETF products, Wang Baohe admitted that the current competition of fund companies in ETF products has entered a white-hot stage. "But Wells Fargo Fund has a wide layout and rich experience in ETF products," he pointed out, "At present, Wells Fargo Fund has ETFs that represent growth gems, we also have ETFs that track the Shanghai Composite Index on behalf of the market, and we also have a series of smart beta products, such as Wells Fargo CSI Value ETFs and military leading ETFs." ”
Zhang Shengxian: The medium-term track advantage is obviously optimistic about the investment opportunities in the military industry
Zhang Shengxian analyzed the investment opportunities in the military industry. Zhang Shengxian pointed out that in the medium term, the military industry is on a relatively good track. Zhang Shengxian mainly analyzed the investment opportunities in the military industry from three aspects.
First, he pointed out that since 2015, China's economic growth rate has shifted gears, gradually decreasing from 7% to about 6%, but the growth rate of defense spending has been stable at 7%-8% in the past five years. In the case of the overall economic growth rate shifting gears, the stable growth rate of the national defense and military industry is worth looking forward to.
➤ Second, from the absolute point of view, he believes that although China's military expenditure has reached the second place in the world, the gap with the United States is still very large, military expenditure accounted for only 1.3% of GDP, the United States reached 3.1%, in his view, the future increase in military expenditure is huge.
➤ Third, from the perspective of safeguarding economic interests, China is currently the world's second largest economy, while the foreign dependence of oil is relatively high, and the economic interests of the Belt and Road will continue to increase in the future, which will increase defense expenditure.
Starting from the cyclical nature of the military industry, Zhang Shengxian pointed out that there will be a cyclical increase in orders in the military industry in the last two years of each five-year plan. 2019 and 2020 are exactly the last two years of the 13th Five-Year Plan, so he believes that the allocation value of the military industry in the next two years is prominent.
In addition, Zhang Shengxian also analyzed the reasons for the weak performance of the military industry in previous years, he said: "In the three years from 2015 to 2017, the Chinese military was carrying out reforms, and in the process of reform, orders fell more. He stressed: "With the end of the military reform in 2018, military orders have risen a lot. ”
The market generally believes that the valuation of the military industry is high, but Zhang Shengxian has a different view. He believes that due to the existence of asset integration expectations, the overall elasticity of the military industry is high, resulting in a higher valuation center in the military industry. Therefore, when considering the valuation of the military industry, we should not only start from the profits of the listed company itself, but should take into account the profits of the parent company behind it, "although the valuation of the military industry has always been relatively high in absolute terms." But behind the military industry is the valuation of its parent company, the entire valuation center is relatively high, others twenty or thirty times, it is fifty or sixty times. "It is worth noting that if you pay attention to the historical percentile of valuation, whether it is the percentile of pb or pe, the overall military valuation is in the historical bottom area."
Finally, Zhang Shengxian gave a proposal for the layout of the military industry, "Due to the difficulty of investing in military stocks in the military industry, it is a good way to lay out military-related theme funds." Wells Fargo Fund actively lays out the military industry and launches related smart beta products, military industry leader ETF. The fund selects leading military enterprises, pays attention to factors such as the proportion of military business, the status of the industrial chain and the roe, and strives to better help investors grasp the military market. ”
Wells Fargo Fund Wang Lele: How to enhance the investment experience of ETFs?
ETFs are big hits, but are we more concerned about the officers making money? In other words, how to enhance the etf investment experience?
Wang Lele has his own answer. He pointed out that looking back at the performance of the A-share market in the past decade, the key is whether the company can continue to create real profits for investors, and only a solid rate of return can promote the stock price to continue to rise.
So, how to select a group of companies with better profitability in all A-shares? He pointed out that profitability represents the future and can be screened according to historical data. Wells Fargo Fund takes companies with a ROE of more than 10% in the past three years as a sample, and on this basis, among these companies, it selects those with low valuations, roe divided by pb, and 100 companies with low valuation and high profitability, which constitutes the Guosen Value Index. Profitability represents a company's future development prospects, so the Guosen Value Index has a strong medium- and long-term investment value.
In 2019, consumer stocks led the market in performance. In fact, since the end of 2009, the return rate of consumer stocks has been about 3 times, but in the same period, the overall valuation of A shares, consumption is no exception, the reason why it can rise so much is to rely on corporate profits.
In terms of his views on consumer stocks, Wang Lele shared a different view. Consumption is liquor? No, Wang Lele defines consumption as the consumption upgrade of the entire population, and expands the concept of consumption to the entire concept of China's economy from export-driven to investment-driven to consumption-driven, and uses this as a guide to select leading stocks in the three-tier industry classification of the entire consumption.
When it comes to how to lay out consumer stocks, Wang Lele said that it is simpler to directly invest in consumption-related index funds, which has higher certainty and saves the trouble of stock selection.
What does the future hold for market trends? Wang Lele believes that whether from the perspective of valuation profitability, global funds or from the perspective of the cycle, the next may be the starting point of a large cycle. He understands the problem mainly from three aspects.
➤ First of all, the valuation of the A-share market has reached a relatively low position, and in the long run, after the valuation is relatively stable, EPS can promote the rise of stock prices.
➤ Second, China's economic growth is still relatively strong.
➤ Finally, Wang Lele said that the A-share market belongs to emerging markets, and the overall performance of emerging markets has a strong correlation. From the perspective of the cycle, the current emerging market is in a strong cycle, when the emerging market as a whole is strong, the A-share market often has a good wave of market, the correlation is very strong.
So, what should investors focus on in the short term?
Whether it is statistics, distribution or ratio sequences, it shows that the ChiNext board has a certain investment value in the short term. And according to the analysis data of securities companies on the performance of the ChiNext board, whether the performance is optimistic, pessimistic or neutral, the ChiNext is basically a process of oscillation upwards. In addition, consider the launch of the science and technology innovation board this year. In the short term, we can look forward to the GEM. Wang Lele said that Wells Fargo Fund has GEM ETFs, which investors can pay attention to appropriately.
Finally, Wang Lele concluded: "Every index has investment characteristics, bull market to do securities, coal when the economy is overheated, the economy to recover on the Hang Seng China Enterprise Index, all investment can be reduced in dimension, investment can become simplistic." "Index funds are just an investment tool, but there are still advantages and disadvantages, and Wells Fargo funds have taken root in fundamentals, done a lot of data processing, and eliminated some bad companies." In this way, we will create the best tools for investors, and strive to let the officers get better returns and a better investment experience in the product.
After reading the three stickers, there are many essences. The advantages of low etf rates, convenient trading, etc. are self-evident, how to make a profit in the market of the game with the help of this tool, Fu Er will continue to track and give real advice to the guest officer
(This article is based on the speech of the Snowball × Wells Fargo Fund Club Nanjing Special Forum on August 10)
Risk warning entry
1. The Investor Protection Bureau of the China Securities Regulatory Commission reminds you that when investing in securities, the seller is responsible and the buyer is responsible.
2. The Investor Protection Bureau of the China Securities Regulatory Commission reminds you: prudently assess risks and rationally raise margins.