Reporter Zhang Yingguo
Recently, the A-share market has been weakly shaken, but the enthusiasm of northbound funds to sweep goods has not changed. The data shows that the cumulative amount of continuous net purchases by northbound funds in the past 5 days has exceeded 15.7 billion yuan. The analysis believes that with the introduction of a series of policies and products that help foreign capital to carry out A-share risk management convenience policies and products, foreign capital will continue to flow into A-shares, and the amount of net inflows this year will reach a new high. At present, it is not a question of how much the index will fall, but to consider how to suck low and how to suck low.
Northbound funds have been net inflows for 5 consecutive days
On November 3, the A-share market continued to adjust weakly, and the Shanghai Composite Index lost the 3500-point integer mark. As of the close, the Shanghai Composite Index was reported at 3498.54 points, down 0.2%; The Shenzhen Composite Index reported 14367.78 points, down 0.07%; The ChiNext index was trading at 3327.09, down 0.37%.
It is worth mentioning that the transaction amount of shanghai and Shenzhen cities on the same day was 1,000.2 billion yuan, although it was a sharp drop of 257.9 billion yuan from 1,258.1 billion yuan in the previous trading day, but the northbound funds known as "smart money" bought 731 million yuan on the same day, maintaining a net inflow trend. "Investment Express" reporter noted that as of November 3, northbound funds have been net inflows for 5 consecutive trading days, with net purchases of 7.172 billion yuan, 4.739 billion yuan, 711 million yuan, 2.365 billion yuan and 731 million yuan, totaling 15.718 billion yuan, and the net purchase of 36.647 billion yuan in the latest month.
Since the beginning of this year, the net inflow of northbound funds has exceeded 300 billion yuan, and the institution expects that funds will continue to flow into A-shares. Wang Ying, a stock analyst at Morgan Stanley China, expects a net inflow of $50 billion to $60 billion in northbound funds throughout 2021, the highest annual inflow since the launch of the connectivity mechanism. Wang Ying pointed out: "Under the background of regulatory policy adjustment, international investors have increased their allocation to A shares, and funds continue to flow into A shares. ”
On October 15, the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) announced that qualified foreign investors can participate in financial derivatives trading varieties, and opened three new types of commodity futures, commodity options and stock index options. The CSRC said that expanding the scope of investment by qualified foreign investors is an important measure to implement the reform of the onshore market system and further expand the opening up of the domestic securities and futures market, which will provide more hedging products and allocation tools for foreign investors, help attract more overseas funds, and improve the international influence of the domestic capital market.
It is reported that the first batch of msci China a50 interconnection ETFs that have attracted much attention will be officially listed on November 8. Previously, the MSCI China A50 Interconnect Index Futures Contract was launched for trading on 18 October, which is the first MSCI Index futures introduced by the Hong Kong Stock Exchange with Mainland A-shares as a constituent stock. The analysis believes that it will greatly improve the convenience of foreign investors to carry out A-share risk management, and further enhance their enthusiasm for entering the A-share market.
The director of the quantitative investment department of Huaxia Fund and the manager of Huaxia A50etf fund said that although the epidemic in 2020 unexpectedly disrupted the market, China's economic growth has stabilized rapidly. Benefiting from the engineer dividend and the rise of the new economy, independent innovation and manufacturing upgrading will further increase China's gdp in the world. Foreign investors are optimistic about China's equity market, and incremental funds will continue to flow into A-shares.
Adjustment is the time to suck low
For the future market, Guotai Junan believes that in the short term, we can continue to pay attention to the support near the annual line of the Shanghai index. As far as the current technical trend is concerned, the next two days are expected to usher in a rebound pattern after the current position is stable. Below 3500 points of the Shanghai index is a better area of dip layout, without excessive panic.
Institutional people told the "Investment Express" reporter that the current is not worried about how much the index has fallen, but to consider how to suck low, how to suck low. "In the short term, it is difficult to rule out the risk of market decline, but even if there is a correction, the downside is limited; In the medium and long term, the current market has a good investment cost performance, and the longer the time, the greater the probability of obtaining absolute returns. ”
CEIBS believes that the current time is to readjust positions and increase the allocation of medium- and long-term industries. Considering that the signal of short-term economic stabilization in the fourth quarter has not yet appeared, it is expected that the market will find it difficult to form effective and consistent expectations for future fundamentals, and a share may continue to fluctuate during this period. Considering that the recent real estate control policy will not be further strengthened, investors should pay less attention to short-term sentiment and moderately increase their positions based on long-term portfolios.
Haitong Securities said that from the perspective of technical trends and political geography and other factors, it is difficult for the index to perform well for the time being, but the structural market will continue, focusing on the new energy and consumer electronics sectors. In the context of carbon neutrality, in order to achieve the 2060 carbon neutrality goal, the new energy industry chain will be a sustainable and prosperous industry in the future. Lithium battery, photovoltaic, energy storage, wind power and other sectors, the future market or repeatedly active, can be low suction and high throw.
China Development Bank Securities is expected to still be difficult to break the shock situation in November, and the probability of forming an important trend is not large. Considering that the macro economy still has downward pressure, ppi remains high, and the upward pressure on prices is relatively large, the market sentiment tends to be cautious, and institutions may adjust the position structure, on the one hand, to prepare for the settlement of the year, on the other hand, to begin to lay out the spring market in 2022.