Recent gold price fluctuations have weakened slightly, although it seems to be relatively weak, but I am still relatively optimistic about the future of gold and silver. The following is a sorting out of the risk aversion caused by the epidemic.
In the morning, I saw the news that Zhejiang added a new case of asymptomatic infection imported from outside the province, a person who drove from Xinyang City to Jinhua on January 27, this person tested positive for the new crown at the departure place on the 25th, and needed to test weakly positive again on February 6. This caused tension in China and rushed the news to the hot search. At the same time, traces of the new coronavirus were found on the cherries imported from Chile abroad, (between the fruit transportation will not use cold chain technology, and the distance from Chile to China is far, the time is long, the probability of fruit detected on the fragments of the new crown virus, the toxicity has been minimal, so the risk of infection is very low). But we can still feel that the danger of the new crown is still everywhere, so here is still a reminder to remain vigilant. Neither let down our vigilance because of the current epidemic control in China, nor do we complain too much about some harsh measures by the government.
As early as the end of last year, Science published an article, which mainly introduced the epidemic in Manaus, Brazil, about three-quarters of the local people have received the new crown infection, and then the development did not go as expected, the virus began to disappear, just slowly began to decline, and there is a key argument in the article, that is, it is found that people who have been infected with the new crown have a half-life of only 106 days of antibodies. (Previous sars and Middle East syndrome, valid for 3 years), 13 variants of COVID-19 have also been found in Brazil and have been registered in our neighbor japan.
Another important thing is the south African mutation of the new crown, according to nature's report, the south African mutation of the virus can escape the immune response of many human antibodies, but also includes the effect of some vaccines, (the study found that the virus 44% for the recovered serum complete immunity, moderna did a clinical trial, his vaccine for the South African mutation of the new crown, only 1/6 of the efficacy of the ordinary new crown) South Africa independent mutation of the new crown in the United Kingdom similar to the British k501y, increased by 40% - 70% infectious at the same time, continue to develop their own e484k and k417n, and on the basis of the original increase in the amount of toxicity, that is, more toxic, nature posted, the south African new crown named k501y.v2 (good guys, ordinary users become VIP2 level), according to the South African new crown strain tracking, from September 28 to December 7, k501y.v2 has accounted for 90% of South African new crown patients. From the available data the virus has spread to Finland, the United States, the United Kingdom, Brazil, Japan (Japan has you again!). ）
Now the United States as the world's largest country, its epidemic has been making people fall through the glasses, although now Dr. Fauci has returned to office, but in the face of the current epidemic, he has changed the original herd immunity as long as 80% of people, to now 86% -94% of people have antibodies to achieve the effect of herd immunity. But the premise of this herd immunity is that there is only one new crown, but according to the current research in the United States, 15% of people who have been tested have the first new crown, he has no immunity, and he can also get the second new crown, which is only a non-mutant new crown, the United Kingdom's n501y, has spread to 37 states in the United States, and South Africa, the new crown mutation big brother, has found two separate individual cases in North Carolina that have no connection and no outing experience. (Probably already community-based) By all accounts, the United States will peak again in March with the spread of the variant, and the impact of this variant will be brought to the world.
Finally, we look at gold and silver, under the continuous continuation of the epidemic, the impact on the economy will be greater, so if from the perspective of hedging, the investment value of gold will exist for a long time in the future. And after the recent correction and correction after last year's surge, the value of gold has now come to a relatively suitable price, if the later stage, as I said, the new crown epidemic continues to ferment, resulting in further damage to the economy, thus triggering a bigger economic crisis problem. Then it is still very likely that the gold and silver will rise again.