[Text/Observer Network Columnist Gunter Schuch, Translator/Observer Network by Guan Qun]
There now seems to be a general consensus that whatever the outcome of the German election and what happens in the inevitable alliance negotiations thereafter, the situation will only be against China.
Germany elected a new parliament on 26 September, which indirectly elected Merkel's successor. What can China expect?
Something new has emerged in German politics
The first is a spoiler warning: while the German people have voted and the rough results are out, it remains unclear who will win in the end – two so-called people's parties, Merkel's Conservative Union Party (CDU), have 24.1 percent support, while her current election partner, the German Social Democratic Party (SPD), has 25.7 percent support.
The two parties have indeed become unpopular over the years, so much so that although they are still the two largest parties in Germany, they have not received more than 50% of the vote even if they joined forces. And that's just the number of votes, with only about 76.6 percent of eligible voters casting their ballots. As a result, there are more absentees than voters from any political party. Any government formation needs to hold a majority in parliament, roughly equivalent to winning a majority of votes. With these votes, the next Prime Minister can be elected.
Of the seemingly viable coalition options before the elections, only one coalition is unlikely: the SPD + Greens + (extreme) left parties.
Either side of the grand coalition wants to govern alone, nor does it want the Greens or the Liberals to govern, so the most likely option is for the Greens and the Liberals to each be in one of two different coalitions, but each is dominated by a large party, the SpDD or the Christian Democratic Union.
So the next chancellor will be Olaf Scholz of the SPD or Armin Laschet of the Union party, whose election partners will have more seats than their own parties, a new situation in German politics. Usually, a large party dominates, and only one more small partner is needed to occupy the majority.
Pictured is a poster of the Scholz and Rashet campaign (Photo/DPA)
Therefore, the Greens and liberals must first find an alliance. They will participate in any government and must decide which shrinking "people's party" is best suited to their internal collusion. In this regard, the Greens are closer to the SPD and the Liberals are closer to the Union Party.
Parties that accept subordination will make more binding demands in the "alliance pact" drawn up before the new government is formed. This can be the policy guideline for the main issue, or it can be which party gets the use of human rights in which sector. In coalition governments, the Liberals usually occupy the Ministry of Economy and/or the Ministry of Finance and/or the Ministry of Foreign Affairs.
Foreign policy carries little weight compared to other issues. Both parties agree that the EU and NATO are the cornerstones of German foreign policy. The Greens are no longer the pacifist party they were in their early days.
Controversial issues are quite national in nature, such as how to reform pension systems to cope with population ageing, similar reforms to health insurance and health infrastructure, tax reform and debt issues, housing and rents, minimum wage and universal basic income, property taxes, promotion of renewable energy generation and transmission and distribution, and an earlier exit from coal-fired power generation, agricultural subsidies and regulation.
I expect that if the German chancellor is weakened at home, Germany's role in the EU will also weaken. In any case, core issues will increasingly be pushed by the EU, such as emissions trading and regulation of the automotive sector.
Will the German people's attitude toward China change dramatically?
After President Biden's return to multilateralism, transatlantic relations have improved again. With foreign policy at the top of the agenda, attitudes toward China will not be at the center of the agenda. Still, we can take a closer look at the question:
Compared with other Western governments, Merkel's government has always been a dovish party toward China. Mr. Obama has abandoned the policy of "making China more politically open through trade and educational exchanges," let alone Mr. Trump. Unlike the United States, Germany has never abandoned its policy of "promoting change through trade."
The economic and trade ties between China and Germany are much closer than those between China and the United States, and they are not only one-way ties. There have been several dark periods in Germany's history that have made us very cautious in blaming others, while at the same time making the people more sensitive and less willing to tolerate any form of authoritarian government.
But Chancellor Merkel is more pleasant than other heads of state, and there's another reason for that: Merkel is very sociable, low-key, and almost unaffected by emotions. She avoids conflict, never provokes it, and if conflict is inevitable, her signature action is to let others resolve it, and once the problem is resolved, she is on the side of the winner.
This style meant that she was undervalued by many competitors, and she always attracted most of the public. Just because she is a stable and famous backbone in a turbulent world, this fact has fascinated Europe and the world. Many consider "good at managing crises" to be her greatest strength, at least no one would say she ever panicked. In Germany, when she last ran, she used "You know me" as her main campaign slogan to ensure her victory.
However, now the uncertain situation has emerged, right? Many young Germans who voted for the first time had no idea what a world would be like without Merkel as chancellor. Europe wonders who will be the leader, whether Macron's France will play a bigger role, or whether Europe's Franco-German "engine" will slow down.
China wants to know what will happen to the world after the world, once known as the "leader of the free world" and repeatedly referred to as "the most powerful woman in the world," stepped down.
In my opinion: not much will change.
Germans may call for change, but they don't really want change – things around them should change, but things that directly affect them can't change. This change has a rather negative implication for Germans today. In China, change usually means progress; in Germany, it means "they want to take my money, their freedoms and my rights...".
Second, the role of the German chancellor is far less powerful than one might think. Especially in alliances and in federal countries like Germany, democracy is sometimes a series of endless, painfully long compromise processes. Radical policy shifts have almost never occurred.
The most recent shift in memory is the cessation of nuclear energy, just after the Fukushima crisis, when the operation of German nuclear power plants was slightly extended after a lengthy approval. It wasn't because our PhDs in physics prime ministers or ministers changed their minds, but because shortly after the disaster, in a state election, the populace dramatically turned to the Greens.
So, can we expect such a drastic shift in the German people's perception of China?
No. This shift is usually triggered only by external events, rather than by top-down agitation, such as the post-2015 refugee crisis, post-COVID-19 restrictions, or the recent Flood in Germany that remembrances climate change for people who have forgotten climate change since COVID-19 and its subsequent economic regression.
When China appears in the news, the context is usually that China is gradually developing. Even a specific event like Hong Kong's is placed within the context of China's growing economic and military influence in the world.
As individuals, the two possible prime ministers-elect are also unlikely to make an unexpected move. Unlike Boris Johnson in the Uk or Donald Trump in the US, Olaf Scholz and Amin Laschet are seen as weak, predictable and uninteresting candidates. Scholts, who was finance minister, was a well-known figure with the temperament of an accountant in northern Germany; Raschet tried to please everyone at once – he was the governor of North Rhine-Westphalia, who regarded Carnival as an inseparable part of culture. As individuals, both are career politicians and are unlikely to act recklessly.
Attitude of german parties toward China
So specifically, when it comes to China, what positions do the parties hold?
The Berlin-based nonprofit think tank Mekato Center for Chinese Studies (MERICS), which focuses on China's political, economic, social, technological and ecological developments and the impact of these aspects on the world, analyzes the electoral manifestos of Germany's major political parties. In these documents, the parties have made their positions, if any, on all issues that voters may want to know.
As can be seen from these documents, there is a lot of consensus among the parties. All parties agreed that Germany's position should be Europe's position and that the negotiated position should be based on European competitiveness. They want to establish fair economic and trade relations, but due to sanctions and counter-sanctions on Xinjiang, the China-EU Comprehensive Investment Agreement, which China and the EU have negotiated for eight years and aim to achieve fair trade goals, has reached an impasse at the EU level.
Personally, I think both the Greens and the Liberals have a strong incentive to engage in dialogue with China.
If China, India, and the United States do not work with Germany, any efforts germany can make to curb global warming will be a drop in the bucket. Among all countries, China not only has the highest carbon dioxide emissions, but also has the largest environmental protection power generation industry. If you want to save the planet, it would be wise to first smooth out the differences in worldviews. China's recent decision to halt further construction of coal-fired power plants around the world should be welcomed by The Greens.
Liberals are naturally genetically in defense of civil liberties and individual freedoms. While this has generated strong feelings about controversial topics such as Hong Kong, Taiwan, and Xinjiang, or the social credit system, they should also acknowledge that liberals should tolerate this freedom of choice, from a liberal point of view, no matter what political system another country chooses. While they may disagree with me, the Liberal Party is the most economically active party in Germany. They advocated less powerful governments and less bureaucracy, and advocated entrepreneurship, free trade, and prosperity through economic ties.
It now seems that China itself has a more direct influence on Germany's position toward China than the German people or their representatives. There has been no major shift in Attitudes in Germany before, and there should be no visible future for the new government, unless China itself makes major policy changes. Unlike the United States, which feels threatened by its own hegemonic position, Germany, as an exporter, has benefited greatly from China's rise and is therefore not interested in decoupling.
Any real or perceived violation of human rights and individual freedoms can put pressure on politicians to make clear statements. Bad news about tighter rule, social credit systems, and even civil unrest will draw attention. Because of bias and a lack of first-hand observation, it's easy to believe that something bad has happened in China.
In addition to "partners" and "competitors", the EU has also created a "systemic competitor" expression for China, which not only reminds us of the different systems in Central Europe, but also indirectly implies that the ultimate outcome of competition may be institutional change. Europeans have unwittingly embraced this view, and there are no other expectations of China, as we Europeans have done over the centuries in religious or political missionary work.
China should work to eliminate this erroneous bias. To do so, it needs to engage in dialogue with the outside world.
For dialogue, environmental protection can be an excellent topic, because only global cooperation can protect the environment. Not only did the Greens achieve their best results in history in the German general election, but they also succeeded in forcing all other parties to work towards greener environments.
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