Reporter | Li Hao Edit |
The revenue and net profit of the new crown vaccine company Zhifei Bio (300122.sz) decreased sequentially.
On the evening of October 28, Zhifei Bio released the third quarterly report, and in the third quarter of this year, the company achieved operating income of 8.657 billion yuan, an increase of 113.44% year-on-year; the net profit attributable to the shareholders of the listed company was 2.913 billion yuan, an increase of 199.06% year-on-year.
It is worth noting that the performance of Zhifei Bio in the third quarter has declined sequentially. Among them, operating income fell slightly by 6% month-on-month, while net profit attributable to shareholders of the parent company fell by 36% month-on-month.
Zhifei Bio's main business includes the research and development, production and sales of vaccines and biological products, and its main products include tuberculosis, influenza, rabies, hpv, new crown pneumonia and other vaccines.
Debon Securities Research Report shows that at present, 7 new crown vaccines have been listed in China, which are mainly divided into two categories: inactivated vaccines and recombinant vaccines. The enterprises approved for listing of inactivated vaccines include Wuhan Institute, Beijing Kexing, Beijing Institute, Kangtai Biology and Institute of Biology of medical academy; enterprises approved for listing of recombinant vaccines include Zhifei Bio and Kangxino.
Zhifei Bio's recombinant novel coronavirus vaccine (cho cell) is the first recombinant subunit COVID-19 vaccine in China, developed by Zhifei Bio in cooperation with the Institute of Microbiology of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, and was included in emergency use in March 2021.
As of October 26, 31 provinces (autonomous regions and municipalities directly under the Central Government) and the Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps have reported a cumulative total of 2.251 billion doses of COVID-19 vaccine. At present, the domestic large-scale vaccination is basically completed, and the domestic demand for the new crown vaccine may be sharply reduced.
However, the high demand for COVID-19 vaccines overseas continues. Debon Securities Research Report believes that after deducting China, the United States, Europe and India, the international market demand is about 6-9 billion doses, and there is still a huge gap. Starting from the second half of 2021, exports will become the focus of domestic COVID-19 vaccine companies. Based on the data of the third phase, it is expected to be listed conditionally in China in the near future, and international exports are expected to accelerate.
From the perspective of business model, Zhifei Bio's vaccine is divided into two business models: autonomous and agent. The semi-annual report shows that the vaccines produced by the two models account for half of the country, but the gross profit margin of independent products is extremely high, at 86.88%; while the gross profit margin of agent products is lower, at 33.99%.
Among them, the representative of independent products is the new crown vaccine, and its extremely high demand and gross profit margin comparable to that of Moutai in Guizhou have made Zhifei Bio's stock price and revenue increase significantly in the past year. The representative of the agent product is the HPV vaccine, which was the main pillar of the company's revenue before the new crown vaccine was launched.
Zhifei Bio is the exclusive agent of Merck in China, mainly selling HPV quadvalent and nine-valent vaccines. At present, the renewal of the agency rights between the two parties has been extended until the first half of 2023.
In the future, the demand for HPV vaccine in China will remain at a high level. Debon Securities Research Report believes that the market space of HPV vaccine stock may exceed 220 billion yuan, and the annual incremental space is about 5.42 billion yuan. Although the speed of domestic enterprises to develop HPV vaccines has accelerated, considering that most of them take protective efficacy as the main endpoint of clinical trials, it is expected that it will take a certain period of time for the vaccine to complete the clinical trial and apply for marketing, and the advantages of LTM products in the short and medium term will not be reduced.
It is worth mentioning that due to the long-term implementation of the business model of agent sales, the sales cost of Zhifei Bio is relatively high. Compared with domestic peer companies, the number of sales personnel of Zhifei Bio is in the first place, while the number of technical personnel is decent.
The third quarterly report of Zhifei Bio also shows that the company's sales expenses during the period were 1.225 billion yuan, an increase of 49.63% year-on-year.
In addition, there is still a large market for the vaccine industry. According to evaluatepharma world preview 2020, the global vaccine market size was about $32.5 billion in 2019, ranking fourth with a market share of about 3.6% of all therapeutic areas. At the same time, on the basis of the original forecast that the market size will reach 44.8 billion US dollars in 2024, the evaluationpharma put forward a new forecast for the global vaccine market, and by 2026, the global vaccine market size will reach 56.1 billion US dollars, and the vaccine market still has great growth potential.
Or out of concern about whether various vaccines can maintain a high degree of prosperity, on May 17 this year, Zhifei Bio's stock price touched a new high of 230.54 yuan / share, and then fluctuated downward, falling by 36.2% so far.
In the process of the downward trend of the stock price of Zhifei Bio in the third quarter, star fund manager Gülen chose to increase his position. The CEIBS Healthcare Hybrid Securities Investment Fund, managed by Gülen, added 1.4927 million shares, ranking sixth largest shareholder.