This year's pig industry can be described as not very satisfactory, compared to last year's wind and fire, it is simply a heaven and an underground, remember last year's pig price peak period, a pig made two or three thousand yuan, huge breeding returns, attracted a large number of new enterprises to join the industry. With the return of pig production capacity to normal, the decline in pig prices has hardly stopped. From the shock after the Spring Festival, to the sharp decline in May and June, the pig price trend showed a cliff and fell sharply, and the average price of the outer three yuan was almost cut off, once from fifteen or six yuan a pound at the beginning of the year to five or six yuan a pound in the trough period.
Although in the later period, with the introduction of pork storage, as well as the increase in farmers' price resistance, pig prices have rebounded in the short term, but the price of seven or eight yuan a catty is still at the trough of the industry, due to the sharp rise in raw materials, such a market is not to say that it is good to make money and be able to protect the capital. No wonder many new pig breeders have complained, "It hasn't started yet, it's almost over." ”
Now has entered August, with the departure of the Autumn Festival, the advent of the Mid-Autumn Festival, pork consumption is about to enter the peak consumption season, coupled with the increase in the concentrated selling of the early breeding end, the market cattle and pigs have been basically exhausted, which can be seen from the recently announced weight loss. This also means that the risk of pig prices falling is gradually reduced, according to the normal market trend, with the arrival of the peak consumption season, pig prices should have a certain rebound rise. The market rebound for three consecutive days in the middle of the month also made pig farmers excited, thinking that the good days were coming.
However, the market trend is not objective, due to the strong supply and weak demand has been formed, the road to pig price rebound is still bumpy, pig price rebound did not persist for three days, from the 12th onwards again rose again into a downward situation. And with the acceleration of the barn, the slaughter enterprises suppressed the price, and the decline in pig prices expanded again. According to the data released by the pig price system, today's pig price shows a "diving" downward trend, the monitored pig prices in 26 provinces and cities are new and green, and the average price of three yuan outside the country has fallen to 15.1 yuan / jin, a sharp drop of 0.28 yuan compared with yesterday, which is really a mountain rain to come to the wind full of buildings, and the market plunge seems to be about to come out again.
Specifically, today's pig prices show a situation of north-south flowering and falling, whether it is the northern production areas or the southern sales areas with tight pork supply, they are currently in a state of green decline. Especially in the northern production areas, due to the early recovery of production capacity, abundant pork supply, sluggish market consumption, superimposed concerns about the obstruction of external adjustment of epidemic prevention and control, the mood of the breeding end is high, and the slaughtering enterprises take the opportunity to suppress prices and increase their efforts, resulting in a significant expansion of the decline in pig prices. Among them, the decline in North China is significant, a single-day decline of 0.1 ~ 0.3 yuan / jin, pig prices fell to 7.2 ~ 7.7 yuan / jin, northeast china fell 0.1 yuan / jin in a single day, pig prices fell below the 7 yuan mark, the decline in the northwest region intensified, a single-day decline of 0.2 yuan / jin, slaughter enterprises quoted 6.8 ~ 7.7 yuan / jin.
In the southern sales area, the decline in pig prices is also expanding, due to weak consumption, the rise is hopeless, the superimposed local swine fever disease rebounds, the breeding end is significantly accelerated, the slaughtering enterprises are not reduced, accompanied by the influx of low-priced pigs in the north, the pig prices in the major sales areas in the south have fallen as a whole. Among them, South China fell 0.3 yuan / jin, pig prices fell to 7.7 ~ 10 yuan / jin, East China fell 0.1 ~ 0.3 yuan / jin, the current pig price maintained at 7.3 ~ 8.3 yuan / jin, central China fell 0.1 ~ 0.2 yuan / jin, pig prices fell to 7.4 ~ 8 yuan / jin, the southwest region of the new drifting green, a single day fell 0.1 ~ 0.2 yuan / jin, local pig prices fell back to the "6 yuan era".
Now the pig price has "dived" again, but it is a bit unexpected, but from the sudden change in the market situation, it can also be seen that the current mentality at the breeding end is also changing. Out of concern about the decline in pig prices in the future market, many pig farmers have accelerated the speed of pigs in their hands, and slaughtering enterprises have seen through the psychology of pig farmers eager to realize, and have taken the opportunity to reduce the price of pigs to obtain profits, fill the deficit of weak sales and declining profits, resulting in the emergence of a downward tide in pig prices.
The roof leak is in the overnight rain, and the current difficulties in front of pig farmers are not only the decline in pig prices, the repeated rise in raw material costs, but also plague pig farmers, making the already sluggish pig market worse. According to the July financial report released by the industry, in July, the major listed pig companies except Makihara have experienced deep losses of varying degrees, such as Zhengbang Technology, which is expected to lose 1.2 billion yuan in the second quarter, and the expected loss in the semi-annual report is 1.2 to 1.45 billion yuan, Wen's shares are expected to lose 1.87 billion yuan in the second quarter, the first half report is expected to lose 2.26 to 2.56 billion yuan, New Hope is expected to lose 3.06 billion yuan in the second quarter, and the half-year report is expected to lose 2.95 to 3.451 billion yuan. Tianbang shares are expected to lose 400 million yuan in the second quarter, and the semi-annual report is expected to lose 550 million to 650 million yuan.
These are also the head pig enterprises with better performance, some poor performance of pig enterprises losses may be more miserable, although the cost control of individual retail investors has been reduced, but in the face of the current pig price I am afraid that it will be more difficult to make a profit, but the problem of loss of more and less loss. Henan pig farmer Lao Zhang tou said that the current average cost of pig breeding is more than 8.5 yuan, but grass-roots farmers sell pigs for less than 7.5 yuan a catty, a pound of pigs lose 1 yuan, and a 300-pound fat pig means a loss of about 300 yuan. This is still the cost of self-breeding, those who have just spent a huge amount of money to invest in pig farms, the second high price procurement of piglets of the new pig breeders, at this moment I am afraid that I have fainted in the pigsty.
Judging from the data released by the industry, there are two main factors leading to pig losses, one is the plummeting of pig prices, resulting in deep losses in the pig industry, from 18 yuan a catty after the Spring Festival, falling to today's seven or eight yuan a catty, and the pig price has shrunk by nearly 60%. One is corn, soybean meal, the rapid rise in the cost of raw materials for artificial energy, especially the price of corn for the main materials of pig raising, has risen from 8 to 9 cents a catty in previous years to the current 1.4 to 1.6 yuan / catty, the cost of raw materials has almost doubled, under the premise of pig falling grain rise, the entire pig industry has almost fallen into a loss situation.
That is to say, the current pig farmers' life is not good, especially large-scale pig enterprises with higher breeding costs, the current loss of a pig may reach about 800 to 1000 yuan. What is worrying is that in the face of the decline in pig prices, the market has come with bad news, that is, the collective surge in the feed market. Since entering August, due to the repeated rise in corn prices, a number of feed companies led by New Hope have taken the lead in raising feed corn prices, among them. Since August 6, New Hope Liuhe has raised the suckling pig feed concentrate by 100 yuan per ton, and the large pig feed in the sow feed has been raised by 50 yuan a ton. Zhonghui Zhongwai dairy pig feed, full-price feed, sow feed increased by 50 yuan per ton, concentrate increased by 100 yuan per ton. All suckling pig feed of Shandong Hemei Group, Zhongda pig feed was raised by 50 yuan a ton, and concentrated material was raised by 100 yuan per ton.
Considering the overall trend of corn prices, this year's corn supply gap is larger, feed corn demand is higher, and the corn rising trend in the short term may be difficult to change, which also means that a new round of feed rise may have just begun, and more and more feed companies in the future will also accelerate the team of feed price increases. Corn rises, feed rises, pig costs will only get higher and higher, but pig prices are hovering in the trough and difficult to rise, then eventually there will be a situation that we pig farmers do not want to see, and pig losses may expand.
The sharp decline in pig prices is bound to break the stable system that is not easy to establish again, in the face of rising breeding costs, as well as the shadow generated under the prevention and control of the epidemic, the market is looking down on future pig prices, panic selling secondary fermentation, large-scale pig enterprises take the lead in reducing prices out of the barn, some individual retail investors who are not strong in price resistance will gradually join the realization team, the market pig out of the barn will accelerate, the risk of pig price decline will be greater.
However, the good news is that as early as June when the pig price fell sharply, the state introduced a pork storage early warning mechanism, once the pig price fell excessively first-level warning, then it will start the pork storage plan, support the market, to avoid the emergence of pig prices too low production capacity excessive elimination, equivalent to giving pig farmers a reassuring pill, so that the pig price fell has a bottom line. On the other hand, with the advent of the Mid-Autumn Festival after the Autumn Festival, the market pork consumption will gradually rise, which is conducive to the emergence of pig prices to stop falling and rebound. Coupled with the emergence of pig prices, it will also trigger collective resistance at the breeding end, once the pig price falls below expectations, then pig farmers will fight back and reduce the number of pigs out of the barn. Lead pig prices to usher in a rebound.
Therefore, I personally believe that although in the short term, with the acceleration of the outing, the impact of the price of slaughtering enterprises to kill the fall, the local pig price will fall below 7 yuan a catty. However, in the long run, the 7 yuan pig price is still the mainstream of the industry, and it will be more difficult to fall below and exceed. What the market needs is a relatively stable price, pig prices oversold losses not only pig farmers do not want to see, the state will also intervene in it, just like last month, three rounds of pork storage in one breath, soon let the pig price decline has been suppressed. It is expected that after a short shock fall, pig prices will rebound again, I don't know what everyone thinks?