As we all know, the world pattern has undergone great changes since the two world wars. After World War II, in particular, the Yalta Agreement re-architected the international and regional landscape.
However, as long as the distribution of benefits is artificially divided, there is no absolute fairness, not to mention that the content of the agreement involves the fundamental interests of all countries, so contradictions and disputes over regional sovereignty are constantly staged among countries.
Recently, the contradiction between Japan and Russia on the South Kuril Islands (known as the Four Northern Islands) has once again attracted the attention of various countries.
In fact, the two countries have been fighting for the South Kuril Islands for hundreds of years. Sovereignty over the island has also changed hands several times between the two countries, and although the island is now effectively occupied by Russia, we can also see on the Map of Japan that they have assigned the South Kuril Islands to their own territory.
And Japan has recently been brushed with a sense of existence, the Tokyo Olympic Games have made the world look at this country again, but at such a time of worldwide attention, Japan and Russia have sparked because of the friction of the South Kuril Islands.
What is the "charm" of the island that makes Russia and Japan refuse to let go? Why did Japan choose to provoke Russia again at this time?
According to the Russian News Agency, Russian Prime Minister Mishustin will inspect the Far Eastern Federal District and the Siberian Federal District from 26 to 29, of course, to go to the South Kuril Islands.
Mishustin's inspection is undoubtedly the trigger for the outbreak of this contradiction, in fact, it is not difficult to understand that Mishustin's visit this time is nothing more than two meanings: The first is to declare Russia's sovereignty over the South Kuril Islands, after all, Russia's own prime minister can not go to the territory of other countries to inspect it, that is called a foreign visit.
Mishustin
Before clarifying the second reason, we need to know what Mishustin is doing.
There is no doubt that Mishustin's visit must have been at the behest of Putin. According to the Russian News Agency, Putin recently held a special meeting and clearly gave Mishustin to pay attention to the joint development with Japan's Kuril Islands during the inspection.
Russia has also proposed a joint development with Japan, which needs to be finalized after Mishustin's field trip.
Putin's move can not be said to be not high, it can be said that it is based on soft defense and retreat. It means that I Russia is sincere enough to come up with a proposal to cooperate well with you and Japan, but it is your business not to accept it. If Japan accepts, it would be tantamount to recognizing Russia's sovereignty over the South Kuril Islands. If you don't approve of it, and you Japan didn't choose to cooperate with me well, then I will develop it myself.
Mishustin was promoted by Putin to replace Medvedev, in large part because Mishustin was more successful in economic construction. In recent years, under the "siege" of the United States and Europe, although Russia can maintain its political position through military strength, the economy has become the biggest problem restricting Russia's development, and Mishustin's ascension to the throne at this time is also to alleviate Russia's economic difficulties.
Mishustin's inspection of the South Kuril Islands is to a large extent to prepare for Russia's development of the South Kuril Islands, and if the development project is implemented, it will undoubtedly increase Russia's control over the South Kuril Islands and be of great significance to promoting Russia's economic recovery
Combined with the above analysis, the second reason for the visit is to strengthen the development and control of the South Kuril Islands.
We can understand these truths, and Japan certainly knows better. It is also inevitable that Russia will detonate public opinion in Japan, and Suga Yoshihide has complained bitterly about the Japanese people because of the epidemic and the handling of the Tokyo Olympic Games.
Even at the opening ceremony of the Tokyo Olympics, anti-Olympic parades were still erupting on the streets of Japan, which made Suga's approval rating repeatedly reach a new low, so it was only a matter of time before he stepped down.
At this time, the Japanese government took a tough stance and made a fuss about the South Kuril Islands. On the one hand, we can unify public opinion, divert and cover up various domestic contradictions caused by it in the process of governing, and win popular support for ourselves. On the other hand, Japan's right-wing forces have been growing in recent years, and these right-wing forces basically have militaristic and radical ideas. At this time, the tough voice is also conducive to Suga's ability to co-opt right-wing forces and increase his political chips.
But no matter how loud the shouting, Japan's desire to really control the South Kuril Islands is basically a fantasy. Although the Soviet Union collapsed and Russia withered economically, Russia inherited much of the Soviet Union's legacy, especially military weapons. Even if Japan's economic development is good, it is not at the same level as Russia in terms of force.
Secondly, Japan did not have a "reasonable" position in the South Kuril Islands. Speaking of this "theory", we must talk about the century-old dispute between the two countries about the South Kuril Islands, so let's briefly sort out the timeline:
Beginning in the 1760s, Russia first began the exploitation of the South Kuril Islands and forced the inhabitants of the South Kuril Islands to acquire Russian citizenship. Later, Catherine II issued an edict basically exempting the Kuril Islands from harsh taxes and miscellaneous taxes, and the Kuril Islands were basically assimilated by Russia.
In the 18th century, Japan also began to develop the South Kuril Islands, and later signed the Treaty of Peace and Friendship with Russia in 1855 and 1875 and the Treaty of Exchange between sakhalin islands and the Kuril Islands. The former treaty was the partition of the Kuril Islands, the latter being Japan's island-for-island trade, at which point sovereignty over the Kuril Islands was indeed owned by Japan.
The time soon came to World War II, and in conjunction with what I said at the beginning, the Yalta Conference after World War II redefined the international landscape.
The consequences of Japan's defeat as a defeated country can be imagined, and the Yalta Agreement stipulated that after Japan's surrender, the Soviet Union would acquire full sovereignty over The Southern Sakhalin Islands and the Kuril Islands. As for the southern Sakhalin island mentioned here, it was ceded to Japan after Russia's defeat in the Russo-Japanese War.
Later, the Soviet Union was bound by the Soviet-Japanese Neutrality Treaty and acceded to the Potsdam Proclamation. The Proclamation retained Japan's inherent territory, but the extent of Japan's territory could only be determined by the anti-fascist Allies, which to some extent prevented Japan from taking the path of general division between Germany and Korea.
The signing of the 1951 San Francisco Treaty between Japan and the United States marked Japan's renunciation of the Kuril Islands and the southern part of Sakhalin Islands, but the specific scope of the Kuril Islands was not clearly stipulated in the treaty, so the Soviet Union did not sign the treaty. Later, the "Soviet-Japanese Joint Declaration" did not reach a consensus on the sovereignty of the South Kuril Islands, so there was a dispute that has not been resolved until today.
Judging from this treaty, the sovereignty of the South Kuril Islands has changed hands several times between Japan and Russia, but today, the United States has become a factor that cannot be ignored in this contradiction.
As mentioned earlier, despite the collapse of the Soviet Union, Japan is still unable to challenge Russia. What's more, Russia's current leader is Putin, as long as japan dares to provoke, Russia dares to let fighter jets wander around Japanese airspace, or directly pull missiles over.
On December 1, 2020, the Russian Eastern Military District announced the deployment of S-300v4 long-range anti-aircraft missiles in the South Kuril Islands, followed by the deployment of "Fortress" shore-based anti-ship missiles, "Doyle" anti-aircraft missiles and Su-35 heavy fighter jets.
Briefly speaking of the importance of the South Kuril Islands to Russia, in addition to the various large-scale resources that have been discovered by the South Kuril Islands, the strategic location here is also very important.
Let's assume that Japan really "took" the South Kuril Islands.
According to the U.S.-Japan Security Treaty, the United States will certainly establish military bases here, what are the consequences?
You can look at the geographical location of PetroPapulov and Vladivostok on the Kamchatka Peninsula on the map, which is equivalent to cutting the two places apart and dividing the Russian Pacific Fleet in two.
Moreover, with the oppression of the eastward strategy of Europe and the United States, Russia's strategic space has been continuously compressed, and if the Far East is again blocked by the United States, Russia will face a comprehensive "encirclement and suppression" of Europe and the United States, and also lose Vladivostok, a natural outlet to the sea. Therefore, Russia cannot give up the South Kuril Islands under any circumstances.
In recent years, Japan has also become bolder with the support of the United States, but the attitude of the United States towards the South Kuril Islands is also intriguing, and it can be summed up as "watching from the sidelines."
Speaking of this, you may not understand, since the South Kuril Islands are so important to Russia, why doesn't the United States help Japan take it down? Isn't Russia a "sworn enemy" of the United States?
In fact, if you understand the consistent strategy pursued by the United States toward its allies, you can understand that the United States has always adopted a strategy of "both support and containment", and the United States must support Japan, but it cannot really let Japan develop. The United States needs the benefits brought by Japan, but it must also guard against Japan's "control" after it becomes strong, after all, the "enmity" between Japan and the United States in history is in everyone's heart.
Secondly, the United States also knows that even if it contributes its own efforts, it will not be able to take back the South Kuril Islands, and as mentioned earlier, how important the South Kuril Islands are to Russia, Russia will not be able to let go under any circumstances.
Although the United States is a superpower, Russia is also a nuclear power that can sit on an equal footing with the United States militarily. Once Russia's fundamental interests are touched, the development of the situation is beyond the control of the United States, and no one in the world today can afford the consequences of an all-out hot war.
Therefore, the United States might as well watch from the sidelines and support Japan in the back, so that it can both appease Japan and disgust Russia, and let Japan contain Russia's strength in the Far East.
Regarding the dispute over the Kuril Islands between Japan and Russia, this time China has also made a rare voice. Zhao Lijian, spokesman of china's Ministry of Foreign Affairs, answered at a regular news conference on the 27th: This is a question of Bilateral Relations between Russia and Japan, which should be properly resolved between the two sides. At the same time, China has always maintained that the success of the victory in the world anti-fascist war should be truly respected and respected.
The first half of the answer expresses that China's fundamental foreign policy is not to interfere in the internal affairs of other countries, indicating that China is a neutral, peaceful and responsible country committed to promoting the peaceful development of all countries in the world.
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