Both markets rose sharply on Tuesday, with the Shanghai index up more than 2 percent and the ChiNext index up nearly 4 percent. Although the market has risen sharply, it is still too early to judge the opening of a new round of rebound, and the short-term uncertainty is still relatively large.
Before the Dragon Boat Festival, the Shanghai index broke slightly, and today there was a sharp rise in volume, and the strength exceeded expectations. However, on the whole, the Shanghai index is still a consolidation pattern, and the sharp rise does not mean that a round of rebound will begin. There should be two possibilities, one is to continue to rise to hit 3000 points; the other is today's big rise is a day trip, after the shock will appear a real break down. Next, you can pay attention to the 2934 high point of the Shanghai Index, and it is expected to hit 3000 points after standing firm.
Judging from the CSI 500 Index, after the break, it still made up for the gap left last Thursday, and stood on the upper band of the triangle, which can be said to exceed expectations. However, the previous platform is under great pressure, and it is still difficult to break through. Although the big Yang line is pulled out, it can still be seen as a breakout reversal, and it remains to be seen whether it can continue to break upwards.
Under the expectation of easing, today's sharp rise in A-shares can be seen as a supplement, and the "Notice" of the Central Office and the State Council can also be regarded as an assist (good for infrastructure). Judging from the tick indicators of each index, the 5-minute macd indicator generally forms a top divergence. If this works, then it means that the high point will appear, that is, the big rise is a day trip. There may be an answer to this in the next two days, to see if the market continues to rise after the shock or will turn down again.
From the perspective of US stocks, the S&P index has reached an important resistance level, and on Monday it was the tombstone line. From the technical indicator point of view, its hourly chart macd bar top divergence, macd line, kdj indicator have begun to die cross. It can be said that this may be the rebound high of the S&P index, and the next few days will be critical, and only the closing will be able to continue the rally again, such as pulling out the medium and long yin, the high point is basically established. The next trend of the US stock market is also crucial, if the "chicken blood needle" fails and then turns down again, presumably a share is difficult to stand alone.
The rise in the past two days is expected, after all, the rebound after the break is a routine action, and there is a small gap above that has not been filled, but the strength of the rise is indeed beyond expectations. After the appearance of this big Yang line, the suspense has indeed increased again, and the hope that the indexes will continue to rush up to fill the gaps has been added. However, how to go in the short term or to observe for two days, I hope that the market will not "grind", can give the answer as soon as possible. However, no matter how the short term is, the medium-term downward trend has not changed, investors who are afraid of stepping on the short want to participate or light positions, and they must be willing to gamble and lose, and be ready to stop losses at any time.
【Long-term analysis】
2019 A-share outlook: there will be a wave of "fake bull market" in the year followed by "desperate killing" ("fake bull market" will officially end)
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