On Monday, the Shanghai index bottomed out, approaching 2900 points during the session; the ChiNext index rose more than 3%. Although the stock index has risen, the trading volume has not been effectively released, and it is not yet possible to think that a new wave of rebound has begun.
The Shanghai index once broke through 2838 points in the intraday, but then pulled back, and finally made up for the 2891 point time gap above. Previously, 3 hypotheses were made for the short term, and now the most pessimistic one has been ruled out, and the next is either another decline after the shock, or a new rally begins.
Although the Shanghai index rose today, the volume was not significantly enlarged, and the trading volume was not as good as may 21, so the nature of this Yang line does not rule out that it will be similar to that day. The next uncertainty is still relatively large, the important resistance above the Shanghai index is 2919 points, and only a breakthrough here can confirm the opening of a new wave of rebound. If this signal can appear, then the next step is the C wave rebound impact 3000 points (the b wave structure unfolds), that is, the most optimistic expectation is realized.
From the current index point of view, the current tick k-line chart macd indicator formed a bottom divergence, in fact, the ChiNext board appeared on Friday this signal, which is also one of the reasons why it was expected to rise at the beginning of this week to make up for the upper tick gap. However, at present, the indexes are still a downward relay platform, and it is still difficult to say how much rebound can be triggered after divergence. In times of weakness, the bottom divergence is often a short rebound or even a sideways market will continue to fall, this situation still has to be prevented.
Previously, it was thought that the rebound structure of the Shanghai index would unfold, and the May 20 low was regarded as a B-wave low, and if this judgment was true, the 23rd should widen the middle Yang line. But since then, the Shanghai index has fallen again to create a new low, but now it is theoretically possible to see it as a B wave, that is, today's 2833 low is a B wave low, and it is expected to open a C wave rebound to impact 3000 points. However, from the current situation, the US stock market has the risk of breaking the position again, and commodities led by crude oil have also sent a signal of turnaround, and there are still some worries in the short term, and they dare not make optimistic expectations.
As soon as it rises today, there are two possibilities next, that is, if the Shanghai index breaks through 2919 points, the C wave rebound will open; on the contrary, if it is weak and creates a new low, a new wave of decline is probably about to open. Since there is no doubt that the medium term is in a downtrend, it is obviously a greater risk to bet on the opening of a new round of rally now. Investors can wait a little longer, and it is not too late to follow up after the breakthrough of 2919 points.
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