Yangcheng Evening News reporter Liang Yitao reported: On November 4, the China Meteorological Administration held a press conference to inform the media about the climate trend forecast for November, the climate trend forecast and suggestions for this winter. The reporter learned from the press conference that under the prediction of comprehensive existing meteorological data, the probability of China's winter being cold this year is large, but it is not necessarily a "cold winter". Although China has a high probability of being cold in La Niña, not every La Niña has a low average winter temperature. It is suggested that china, whether in the north or in the south, should guard against the disasters that may be caused by phased strong cooling and low temperatures.
Zhao Huiqiang, deputy director of the office of the China Meteorological Administration, said at the press conference that around November 13, China's Yangtze River and its northern regions, north China and northeast China may be affected by another new cold air. It is expected that this winter (December 2021 to February 2022), the cold air activities affecting China are frequent, the force is strong, the temperature in the central and eastern regions is generally cold, and the cold and warm fluctuations in the season are large; the precipitation is generally distributed in the north and south, of which the eastern Part of the Heilongjiang River, the central part of the Yellow River Basin and the western part of North China, the northern part of Xinjiang and other places are more than 20% to 50%.
In the cold winter, will China encounter a "cold winter"? Will the "snow disaster" of 2008 be repeated? In this regard, Jia Xiaolong, deputy director of the National Climate Center, interpreted that "cold" is whether the temperature is low or high on average, and "cold winter" has strict standards. Although it is currently predicted that the cold air activities in China will be frequent and strong this winter, the conditions for the long-term rain, snow and freezing weather in the southern region of China in 2008 will also have very good water vapor transportation. Judging from the existing forecasts, the water vapor conditions in southern China this winter are not as good as in 2008, and the possibility of large-scale and sustained low-temperature rain and snow freezing is small, but the phased low-temperature rain and snow freezing weather process that may occur in the eastern part of Southwest China and the western part of Jiangnan needs to pay attention to the impact of the phased low-temperature rain and snow freezing weather process on the power grid and transportation, and prepare for the possible phased centralized electricity demand.
Previously, the National Climate Center had expected to enter La Niña in October, and a weak to moderate-intensity La Niña event would form in the winter. Jia Xiaolong said that it is not only La Niña that affects China's climate, but also many very important factors. There is a high probability that the La Niña year is more likely to be cold, but not every La Niña year has a low average winter temperature because of other factors that affect the climate. The National Meteorological Service will closely monitor changes in the oceans, snow cover and other influencing factors.
Source: Yangcheng Evening News