Should I buy a house? This may be a hot topic of discussion for more than 20 years, and the debate about buying a house and not buying a house has not stopped until now. The reason is that the house price is very high, many people's housing problems have not been solved, and they can't afford to buy a house with such a high price. According to statistics, as of the end of 2020, the average house price in the country is 9860 yuan / square meter, and it has now broken through the 10,000 yuan mark. That is to say, even if it is calculated according to the average house price, the total price of a house will start from one million yuan, which is already very high for many ordinary families. In addition, in many first- and second-tier hot cities, house prices are often tens of thousands of yuan a square meter, and in Beijing, Shanghai and Shenzhen, the three first-tier cities, house prices are 70,000 yuan / square meter. It can be seen that such a high house price, compared with the current level of people's wages, has been seriously high. For example, the statistics released by Shanghai E-House Research Institute show that the average house price-to-income ratio of 100 cities and 50 cities in the country is 9.2 and 13.3 respectively.
The average house price-to-income ratio is 13.3, which means that a family living in 50 cities across the country needs a whole family to work without eating or drinking for 13.3 years to buy a house in full. It can be seen that the house price is indeed too high now, and many young people have said that they can only look at the house and sigh on their own wages, and they can't afford to buy a house. However, in the face of high housing prices, in recent years, the state has also been introducing regulatory policies to control the problem of high housing prices. Since the property market opened the regulation mode in September 2016, in the next 5 years, the property market regulation and control policy has not only not relaxed at all, but has been continuously tightening. Especially since the beginning of this year, various regulatory policies have been introduced more than 500 times across the country, setting a record high. In addition, this year, the state's financial policy for the property market is also continuing to tighten, before there are "three red lines" new regulations, and then there is a "loan restriction order", which directly makes the entire real estate industry's capital chain tense.
The property market control policy continued to tighten, and house prices fell
In the face of the continuous tightening of the property market regulation and control policy, the house price and the transaction volume of the house have also begun to decline. For example, in August, the transaction volume of second-hand houses in Shanghai fell by 24% month-on-month and 40% year-on-year, and the transaction volume of second-hand houses in Shenzhen fell by more than 80% year-on-year. By September and October, the phenomenon had not stopped. And this phenomenon is not only in Shanghai and Shenzhen, from January to September this year, the second-hand housing market in most cities across the country has seen the phenomenon of volume and price falling together. At the same time, the number of second-hand housing listings across the country is surging, and the number of new listings of second-hand houses in March alone increased by 86% month-on-month, almost double compared with February. In addition, the inventory of newly built commercial housing is also rising, and by the end of 2020, the inventory of newly built commercial housing in the country has exceeded 510 million square meters. It can be seen that with the tightening of the property market regulation and control policy, the current house is indeed not easy to sell.
If the house cannot be sold, the house price will naturally fall, just like in the second-hand housing market, there is a phenomenon of volume and price falling, and there is also a decline in house prices in the new housing market. Due to the impact of the tightening of credit policies, the capital chain of many housing enterprises is becoming more and more tense, and the financing channels of housing enterprises are also affected, and selling houses has become the main source of liquidity. Therefore, since March this year, many housing companies have continued to open the price reduction promotion model, and into September and October, the intensity of the price reduction promotion of housing enterprises has been greater, and the house prices of many real estate have dropped significantly. Even some of the real estate that rose relatively large in the early stage, the current house price has fallen back to the opening price, compared with the highest point of the house price of one square meter the gap of three or four thousand yuan. That is to say, for the owners who bought at a high point, a house has lost hundreds of thousands of yuan in the past few months.
Will house prices continue to fall or will they rebound?
How will housing prices develop in the future? This may be a problem that many people are very concerned about at present, especially for buyers who are just ready to buy a house, and the current fluctuation of house prices affects their hearts. So, will house prices continue to fall or rebound in the future? In the author's opinion, neither of these situations will happen, because these two trends in house prices are not in line with the current national expectations for property market regulation. At present, the state's regulation of the property market is to maintain the stability of the property market by stabilizing land prices, stabilizing house prices and stabilizing expectations, so that the property market can develop healthily and steadily, so the continuous decline in house prices and the rebound and rise are not conducive to the healthy and stable development of the property market.
The current property market regulation and control policy is to maintain the stability of house prices, the trend of house prices is stable, on the one hand, it can effectively combat the phenomenon of speculation in the property market. Although it is only to stabilize the trend of house prices, the blow to speculators is very large, because investors want to get income from investing in real estate, and house prices must rise relatively largely. If the house price trend is stable, whether the house price rises or falls, it will lead to losses for investors. In particular, property taxes will soon be introduced, and the cost of holding properties in the future will also become higher and higher. Under the current trend of house prices, speculators will slowly withdraw from the property market, the house will slowly return to residential properties, and the house price will slowly return to a reasonable level. So, as house prices return to reasonable levels, after 5 years, will house prices be "cabbage prices" or "gold prices"?
Cao Dewang spoke thoroughly and gave home buyers inspiration
Cao Dewang is a well-known private entrepreneur in our country and a philanthropist. For the real estate industry, Cao Dewang has always been unsightly, because Cao Dewang believes that only manufacturing is the future. The real estate industry has attracted too much money, causing a big squeeze on the real industry. In addition, Cao Dewang is not optimistic about the trend of future house prices, Cao Dewang believes that rich people are hoarding houses, no money people can not afford to buy, the future property market will appear more people want to find a way to sell the house to the house more, the house can not be sold at all. Therefore, Cao Dewang once suggested that his sister sell the excess house.
From Cao Dewang's point of view, we can give us some inspiration, first of all, although the real estate industry is also a physical industry, it has become a financial industry. The development of the economy needs to be promoted by the real industry. Therefore, the current regulation and control of the property market is essentially the hope to get rid of the virtual to the real and develop in the direction of the entity. Then it is difficult for house prices to continue to rise, not only because regulatory policies have been tightening, but more importantly, ordinary people can no longer afford to buy houses, and people who can afford to buy houses already have many houses. Finally, people with multiple houses should prepare in advance, and it will be more and more difficult to get income from holding real estate in the future, and the probability of loss will increase. More importantly, the house may face the risk of not being able to sell in the future.
In the next 5 years, will house prices be the "gold price" or the "cabbage price"? Both will happen
In fact, the question of whether the house price is the "gold price" or the "cabbage price" cannot be generalized, because the current house price trend has diverged. In some first- and second-tier hotspot cities, the current house prices are in a very high position, and the population of these cities is still flowing in, with the inflow of population, the demand for housing will become larger and larger, and the house prices will continue to rise in the future. Therefore, for the houses in these cities, after 5 years, it will still be very high, and it is still the "gold price". But it is different for third- and fourth-tier cities, where housing prices are already seriously high and housing resources are already excessive. With the continuous loss of population, the phenomenon of housing surplus in these cities will become more and more serious, and house prices will slowly decrease under the supply and demand relationship of oversupply. Therefore, after 5 years, for the housing prices in such cities, it is likely to fall to the "cabbage price".
Therefore, it can be seen that in the next 5 years, house prices will rise and fall, and will no longer only rise and fall as in the past. In this case, there is still a certain risk in buying a house, so for those who are ready to buy a house, we must take into account the risks of buying a house. For buyers who just need it, they should also try to choose a good house with appreciation potential and comfortable living within the range of their economic ability.