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The U.S. military operation in Afghanistan has been announced after nearly 20 years, and the Taliban are now accelerating their comeback in Afghanistan, and U.S. intelligence sources believe that after all U.S. troops have withdrawn, the Afghan government may only be able to support for about 6 months.
The situation on the ground in Afghanistan has become increasingly volatile as a result of the irresponsible withdrawal of U.S. troops. Not only have refugees spilled over to neighbouring countries, but there has even been a phenomenon of Afghan Government forces fleeing to neighbouring countries. The SCO will meet next week in Dushanbe, the capital of Tajikistan, on one of the topics of security in Afghanistan after the withdrawal of nato forces. How should Afghanistan's neighbors respond? How can Afghanistan get back on track? Yin Gang, a researcher at the Institute of West Asia and Africa of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, told the Shenzhen Satellite TV direct news reporter that in the next step, the international community should exert its own capabilities, and the relevant countries must play their own different roles, and must not let the situation caused by the withdrawal of US troops from Afghanistan change into a huge tragedy.
Shenzhen Satellite TV: On the 8th local time, after talks between the Afghan government and the Taliban in Tehran, they issued a joint statement, and the two sides agreed to continue to discuss the mechanism of transition from war to peace and the Islamic governance system. What are the differences between the two sides?
Yin Gang, Researcher, Institute of West Asia and Africa, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences: In fact, all afghan parties, including the international community, the United States and the Taliban, have realized that it is impossible to solve the Afghan problem militarily. Judging by the recent joint statement issued in the Tehran negotiations, the Taliban do not want to repeat the process of 1996 in which they occupied most of Afghanistan by force and established their own unilateral Government. It doesn't have that desire, so we should be aware that something has changed very much.
Why are negotiations in Tehran? The dramatic changes in the situation in Afghanistan, which may lead to future regime changes, whether war or reconciliation, will have a very great impact on neighboring countries, especially on Iran. Before 9/11, we knew that the relationship between Afghanistan and Iran during the Taliban administration was very bad, and if it were not for 9/11, if it were not for the Afghan war, there would have been a large-scale border conflict between the Taliban and Iran.
After 9/11, the collapse of the Taliban regime and the collapse of Afghanistan into considerable chaos, at this time Iran came forward to protect and protect its culturally connected Hazara Shiite people in central Afghanistan, Iran has in fact controlled a large part of central Afghanistan, once accepted 2 million Afghan refugees, of course, these refugees are Hazarians, Shiites, and have relatively close relations with Iran. Iran has used these refugees to make up for the shortage of low-end labor in the country. Second, in recent years, in the war against the Islamic State, on the battlefield in Syria, these Hazaras have also been expropriated in large numbers. Iran once said, "If Iran is to control central Afghanistan, it does not take much effort", so the Taliban will also realize this, and if the Taliban does not buy Iran's account at all, it will be very unfavorable to itself.
Shenzhen Satellite TV: The United States pursues "interventionism," has successively meddled in the affairs of the DPRK, Vietnam, the Middle East, and other places, first interfering and then "pulling its legs," all of which have caused serious trauma to the local area. What do you think of the impact of U.S. "interventionism" on regional security?
Yin Gang, Researcher, Institute of West Asia and Africa, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences: Afghanistan is the "graveyard of empire", it is true that the British have suffered defeats here, tens of thousands of people have died, the Soviet Union fought in this place for almost 10 years, and finally lost miserably, and even led to the disintegration of the Soviet Union. This time the U.S.-NATO war in Afghanistan dragged on for 20 years, more than twice as long as the Soviet Union's war in Afghanistan, and they got nothing.
I think there are two backgrounds to the withdrawal of US troops, the first is that the negotiations between THE US troops and the Taliban in the past few years have not been smooth, and it is impossible to withdraw troops with dignity through complete negotiations. The second is that before the twentieth anniversary of 9/11, this war must be ended, which is in line with the wishes of the United States Government and the wishes of american citizens.
In the next step, the international community should exert its own capabilities, and the relevant countries, China, Russia, the United States, India, Pakistan, and even Turkey, Iran, Saudi Arabia, etc., must play their own different roles, and must not let the situation changes caused by the withdrawal of US troops from Afghanistan into a huge tragedy.
As things stand, the unilateral establishment of an Islamic State, such as the Taliban's complete occupation of Afghanistan in 1996, is not very likely. Even if the Taliban control and occupy more areas militarily in the future, it is unlikely that the area will fully regain its former rule, including discrimination against women and strict implementation of Islamic law, which I do not think will happen.
We all know that the relationship between China and the Afghan government is very good, and in the past five or six years, China has openly advocated and even presided over the talks between the Afghan government and the Taliban. The Taliban delegation has also visited Beijing more than once, and the Chinese government is more aware of the Taliban's intentions, and the Taliban are more aware of the wishes of the Chinese government, so I think that in this process, China, like other major relevant countries in the international community, will play an appropriate moderating role.
As for the current chaotic situation in Afghanistan, will it cause harm to China? I don't think so. Although the Taliban have occupied the Wakhan Corridor at present, and in theory, China's border guards have had some contact with the Taliban forces, we know that the Taliban have no intention of opposing China, and even if there is a large-scale refugee flight in Afghanistan and terrorists committing evil everywhere, it will be difficult for them to enter the Wakhan Corridor.
Because the Wakhan Corridor itself is a natural geographical barrier, 3/4 of the year is impossible to pass because the snow closes the mountains, and there is excellent security in Xinjiang, as well as ultra-tight prevention and control of the border, so this worry is completely unnecessary.
Shenzhen Satellite TV: On July 5, officials from the National Security Council of Neighboring Afghanistan in Tajikistan said that after a nighttime clash with the Taliban, 1,037 Officers and Men of the Afghan Government Army fled to Tajikistan. After the hasty withdrawal of U.S. troops from Afghanistan, what do you think will be affected by Afghanistan's neighboring countries?
Yin Gang, Researcher, Institute of West Asia and Africa, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences: The hasty and decisive withdrawal of the US military this time is a great shock to Afghan society. In the past, tens of thousands of Afghan workers who had direct working contacts with the US military, as well as some tribes, villages, and villagers who had relatively good relations with the Afghan government, all had the willingness to flee, which caused great pressure on neighboring countries. I think that the neighboring countries will also try their best to meet the wishes of the United States, if these people are not taken in, Afghanistan really broke out a relatively large-scale retaliatory massacre, which is not good for anyone.
Shenzhen Satellite TV direct news reporter: After the hasty withdrawal of us troops, the outside world is worried about the resurgence of "al-Qaida", what is the connection between the chaos in Afghanistan and local terrorism?
Yin Gang, Research Fellow, Institute of West Asia and Africa, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences: First of all, when it comes to the issue of the impact of terrorism, we must distinguish between the Taliban and Al-Qaida, and one of the reasons why the United States fought the Taliban and Afghanistan in those years was that the Taliban harbored al-Qaida, and the Taliban did harbor al-Qaida, although it is not the same thing as al-Qaida.
The influence of Al-Qaida is now much lower than in the past, and even if the Taliban acquires a lot of rights in the future, it will no longer support Al-Qaida, which is not good for it.
The current Taliban, I think, must have learned the lessons of the past 20 years, and in the past its relationship with al-Qaida was a little blind. I didn't think that my cover-up against al-Qaida eventually brought the disaster of killing, so we should see some recent phenomena, that is, the phenomenon that makes people feel more relieved, when the defense zone in Afghanistan is changed, when the US troops withdraw, there are a large number of government troops surrendering to the Taliban, the Taliban did not mistreat these prisoners, but welcomed the return of these brothers, and said that they would build the country with these brothers, and so on.
Author: Chen Ke, Shenzhen Satellite TV Direct News Chief; Wang Yilun, Shenzhen Satellite TV Direct News Reporter.