Wu Jinglian talked about the stock market casino theory again: Don't trust the bull market Wu Jinglian 10 years on the stock market: China's stock market is very much like a casino

<h1 class="pgc-h-arrow-right" data-track="2" > Wu Jinglian talked about the stock market casino theory again: Don't trust the bull market</h1>

The following is the full text of Wu Jinglian's speech in 2014:

Wu Jinglian: I haven't expressed any opinion on the stock market for more than a decade.

Host: Since the "casino theory"...

Wu Jinglian: I made a little correction, I did not say that the Chinese stock market is a casino, at that time there was a professor who said, you advocate the market economy, why did you make such a low evaluation of the stock market, I said that even if you open a casino, there are rules, the problem is that our stock market is a stock market without rules, and some people can look at other people's (bottom) cards.

Host: You mean, China's stock market at that time was not a casino, it was not even a casino, right?

Wu Jinglian: It's a casino with no rules. Stimulated by central bank interest rate regulation in recent days and amplified by many of our media, we have ushered in what you call the three days of soaring.

Moderator: Including us, but also Sohu.

Wu Jinglian: And I think, of course, from this stock market downturn, if we can continue to enter a state that can create wealth for investors, it is of course a good thing, but we must pay attention to whether the institutional foundation of such a bull market is stable and solid, and I think the defects of our stock market have not been fundamentally improved. So it needs to be treated with great caution, and the main focus should be on how to establish the normal order of this stock market.

There may have been a very important role played by the government in this regulatory line, that is, in the mid-1990s, some of our economists who studied the stock market, and even the leaders of the management authorities, for example, some scholars who served as the leaders of our securities regulatory commission, put forward that there was a fundamental problem, that is, there was a problem with this regulatory line. Because the stock market is the most prone to problems lies in information asymmetry, so the most important responsibility of the regulatory authorities is to improve the general investor information weakness of this state, the most important one in the world's stock market supervision, is to implement a very strict information disclosure system, to prevent the use of general investors' information weakness to improperly get rich, and even use insider trading and market manipulation methods to harm the interests of the majority of investors, to achieve their own benefits.

How to solve this problem? It is to change this so-called approval-based regulatory path, and to transform it into compliance supervision, what regulations? The most important rule is the strict information disclosure system, which requires comprehensive, accurate and timely disclosure of information to all market investors. Although this reform has launched a reform breakthrough in the previous two years, it does not seem to have been completed, especially in the first few months, and it seems that this approval has a tendency to strengthen.

I am a little worried, if a situation with a very perfect institutional foundation ushers in a herd effect and a bull market for some reason, we cannot avoid the ups and downs that existed in our Chinese stock market in the past. So my general opinion is that we should pay more attention to the reform and realize the reform of our stock market, especially the reform of the regulation.

Host: So in your opinion, the rise in this index cannot hide some of the deeper problems in the current Chinese stock market, so you still hope that the Chinese stock market will undergo a deeper reform. But do you worry that we have missed the best time for reform, because at a time when this stock market is developing rapidly, the impetus for such reform is often insufficient, and instead there may be more reform needs when it is stagnant.

Wu Jinglian: This requires us, whether we are officials or our stock market investors, to maintain a very calm mentality and focus our attention on promoting reform and improving the system.

<h1 class="pgc-h-arrow-right" data-track="16" > Wu Jinglian's 10-year overview of the stock market: China's stock market is like a casino</h1>

At the end of 2000, CCTV's "Economic Half Hour" held the 2000 Annual Person Selection, and Wu Jinglian had the highest online click rate and was invited to be a guest.

On January 12, 2001, Wu Jinglian went to Shanghai for a meeting, and in the hotel, he was interviewed by a reporter from CCTV's "Economic Half Hour", who was tracked down, and answered the reporter's question about the market maker's manipulation of the stock market. Wu Jinglian said that the stock price is abnormally high, so a considerable number of stocks have no investment value. From a deep level, the illegal and illegal activities prevalent in the stock market have made investors unable to return and have become a paradise for speculation. Some foreigners say that China's stock market is like a casino and very irregular. There are also rules in the casino, such as you can't look at other people's cards. And here we are, some people can look at other people's cards, can cheat, can engage in fraud. The activity of sitting on the market hype and manipulating the stock price can be said to be the pinnacle.

After Wu Jinglian's interview was broadcast on CCTV's "Economic Half Hour" on January 14 of the same year, the market unanimously agreed that it represented the official view (Wu Jinglian's views were summarized as 3: "China's stock market is a big casino", "the whole people are not a normal phenomenon", "the price-earnings ratio is too high"), and after the stock market fell sharply, a debate immediately began.

An online poll on "Is China's Stock Market Like a Casino" found that 73 percent said yes.

The stock market is a casino without rules

(February 2005)

Wu Jinglian said: "In 2001, some people said that I was 'dragging my hair but wanting to fly out of the earth', and a lot of criticism flocked to me. Is there anyone who would say that there is no bubble in the stock market? "You know, it's a bubble that will burst one day, and we have to make predictions before it bursts, especially to protect the interests of investors as much as possible."

On solving the speculative bubble in the stock market, Wu Jinglian put forward three suggestions: First, using administrative methods to restrict the market is not the solution to the problem. Second, using proper methods to solve the problem of full circulation is a good way to solve the problem. Third, we should establish a better social insurance system and create better financial institutions to deal effectively with the crisis and achieve good results.

The view of the stock market casino theory has not changed

(March 2006)

At the Chinese and foreign press conference of the National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference, a reporter asked: "As a barometer of China's economy, why does China's stock market always go uncoordinated with the development of the national economy?" What happened to this barometer? When will most shareholders truly enjoy the benefits brought about by the stable development of China's economy? ”

Wu Jinglian did not shy away from the question. He said: "I am afraid that 3 economists have 5 opinions on this issue. I've been doing research on China's stock market for a long time, and in 2001 I published a book called "Ten Years of Talking about the Stock Market," which brought together all the articles from the early 1990s to 2001. Why China's stock market has such an abnormal state, I put forward a systematic opinion. Since then, I have not studied the stock market, but my views have not changed, and I think the views described in this book in 2001 are realistic. ”

The domestic stock market is not normal

(March 2007)

During the two sessions, Wu Jinglian said in an interview with the media: I have studied the stock market for a long time, but I have not studied the stock market since 2001. I used to say a lot about the mechanism, and I said it very clearly in my book ("Ten Years of Talking about the Stock Market"), but now I have nothing to say, I don't speculate in stocks, I don't buy stocks.

Blind stock speculation is risky, and small and medium-sized investors must be cautious so as not to lose all their money. This phenomenon in the stock market is not normal now. I have been refuted by saying that there are more stock holders in the United States than in China. He's completely obfuscating the concept. Which American sits in front of the computer every day and buys stocks directly by himself. Americans basically do long-term, the turnover rate of more than two years, while our domestic investors are frequent transactions in 6 months. Our stock market is not normal.

Editor's Note:

Wu Jinglian often likes to quote czech Vucic famous quotes, "People, I love you, but you must be vigilant!" ”

This is Wu Jinglian's voice. Over the past 10 years, Wu Jinglian has loved and promoted the development of China's securities market in his way, protecting and helping small and medium-sized investors who use their hard-earned money to invest in the stock market in his way. This method seems harsh, but it is actually full of great love. However, for those who maliciously pit small and medium-sized investors, he is like a brave warrior, facing up and fighting.

In the foreword to "Ten Years of Talking about the Stock Market," he wrote: "When we, as the lucky ones of the times, were able to enjoy the first fruits of reform, we should not forget that there were still many ordinary people who did not even get the equal opportunity they deserved to pursue a decent life. When we see some laid-off workers with no mean means of subsistence helplessly throwing themselves into the highly irregular stock market with their meager savings and have no other way out, do we not feel that we have a responsibility to do something for them?

(Source: Sohu Finance, Market News)