Source: People's Daily Overseas Edition
People line up at a COVID-19 vaccination site in Tokyo, Japan, on August 26.
Since Japanese Prime Minister Kishida Fumio came to power, his China policy has been the focus of attention. Japan's "Asahi Shimbun" published an article saying that on the one hand, Japan wants to "contain" China, and on the other hand, it sees that China is Japan's largest trade target, and what kind of attitude to face China is a difficult problem for successive governments to rack their brains.
For a long time, the Japanese government was keen to engage in "political cold and economic heat" against China. But can this old road last a long time? The Kishida government needs to reflect on this when formulating its China policy.
China Policy "Political and Economic Tears"
Japan's "Yomiuri Shimbun" recently reported that with the conclusion of the Japanese House of Representatives election, Japanese Prime Minister Kishida Fumio officially entered his diplomatic agenda. Since he came to power, international public opinion has been paying attention to the new Japanese prime minister's China policy tendencies.
In his October 8 policy address, Kishida said he would maintain dialogue with China and cooperate on various issues facing us. But he also said that Japan will cooperate with countries that share "universal values" and adhere to its due views on China. During the LDP's presidential election, he had claimed to make "dealing with China" a top priority.
Since coming to power, many of the words and deeds of the Kishida government have aroused concern about Sino-Japanese relations. On October 17, Kishida Fumio offered sacrifices to the Yasukuni Shrine in the name of "Prime Minister of Japan." In addition, he said that he plans to revise the "National Security Guarantee Strategy" and explore the development of a pre-emptive strike capability against enemy missile bases. However, when it comes to economic and trade cooperation with China, Kishida Fumio turned sharply, saying that China is Japan's neighbor and the largest trade target, and the two sides should carry out various people-to-people exchanges.
Statistics from the General Administration of Customs of China show that from January to September 2021, the total value of Sino-Japanese trade imports and exports was 1.78 trillion yuan, an increase of 11.2% year-on-year. China continues to maintain its status as Japan's largest trading partner.
Some analysts pointed out that on issues such as the Diaoyu Islands, the Taiwan Strait, human rights, military, and security, the Kishida government has shown a posture of countering China, but Japan's economy is highly dependent on the Chinese market, and the industrial chains of the two sides are intertwined, which has led to the Kishida government facing a situation of "political and economic rift" in its China policy.
The Asahi Shimbun recently published an article saying that Kishida Fumio, who served as Japan's foreign minister for more than 4 years, has a deep feeling for the ups and downs of Sino-Japanese relations. In December 2013, then-Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe paid a visit to the Yasukuni Shrine, bringing Sino-Japanese relations to a freezing point. In August 2014, Kishida had "informal contacts" with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi at a series of ASEAN Foreign Ministers' Meetings in Myanmar, after which Sino-Japanese relations gradually recovered. Although Abe stepped up his "containment of China" at the beginning of his second term in power, he was eventually forced by the pressure of the economic circles to change his china policy from competition to cooperation. After former Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga came to power, he took the same step with the Biden administration and intervened in the Taiwan Strait issue, which once again brought Japan's diplomacy to China to a standstill.
Is the Current Kishida government "containing China" or is it focused on maintaining Japan's economic and technological strength? The Asahi Shimbun article argues that Japanese government departments need to strengthen cooperation and strengthen communication with the economic community and other fields.
"One-sided" is not recognized
"The state of 'cold politics and economic heat' in Sino-Japanese relations began during the administration of former Japanese Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi. At that time, the Koizumi government visited the Yasukuni Shrine for many years in a row, bringing Sino-Japanese political relations to a low ebb. But at the same time, trade between China and Japan is still growing, and economic cooperation continues to deepen. Zhou Yongsheng, a professor at the Institute of International Relations of the China Foreign Affairs University, analyzed in an interview with this reporter that in recent years, Sino-Japanese economic and trade relations have basically maintained a relatively stable development trend.
From 2018 to 2020, the total bilateral trade between China and Japan exceeded US$300 billion for three consecutive years, showing a high degree of stability.
However, Zhou Yongsheng pointed out that it is worth noting that in recent years, there have been no obvious bright spots in the economic and trade cooperation between China and Japan, which is not unrelated to the political indifference of both sides. "In the later period of the Abe administration, Sino-Japanese relations have improved significantly, bilateral economic and trade cooperation has been hot, and Sino-Japanese third-party market cooperation has advanced. However, after the Suga administration came to power, it was tough on China everywhere, followed the United States to restrain China, and even sneaked ahead on issues such as the Diaoyu Islands, the Taiwan Strait, Xinjiang-related issues, and Hong Kong-related issues, trying to guide the United States to confront China, resulting in bilateral economic and trade relations in a flat state. Zhou Yongsheng said.
Lu Yaodong, a researcher at the Institute of Japanese Studies of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, also held in an interview with this newspaper that the situation of "cold politics and economic heat" in Sino-Japanese relations is the result of Japan's China policy. "Contrary to the spirit of the four Sino-Japanese political documents, the Japanese Government wants to contain China politically and profit from China on the other hand, and adopts an attitude that is extremely irresponsible for Sino-Japanese relations and regional peace and stable development."
Many foreign media believe that the Kishida government may continue the foreign policy of its predecessor and strengthen relations with its ally the United States. Kishida held his first meeting with U.S. President Joe Biden on November 2, claiming that the two sides confirmed the strengthening of the Japan-U.S. alliance and reaffirmed the promotion of the so-called "free and open Indo-Pacific."
The Russian Satellite News Agency quoted an analysis as saying that at the beginning of Kishida's term as Prime Minister of Japan, he publicly expressed his support for the US-Japan-India-Australia "Quadrilateral Security Dialogue" mechanism led by the United States and the US-Britain-Australia military alliance. Based on this, it is unrealistic to expect it to take bold measures to improve Sino-Japanese relations in the short term.
In this regard, the Japanese scholar Kurata sharply reminded the "master of Nagata-cho" not to cause trouble for China on the issues of Taiwan, Tibet, Xinjiang, and even Hong Kong, and to truly understand why the policies of the Chinese government can be supported and implemented by the Chinese people, while the Japanese government's measures, especially the "one-sided pro-US" diplomacy, have not been recognized by society. "Japan has become accustomed to looking up to Europe and the United States and taking a negative attitude toward China, but this concept is becoming more and more unworkable."
"Political cold and economic heat" is not sustainable
For the long period of Sino-Japanese relations can not get out of the "political cold and economic heat" deadlock, Japan is full of voices of concern and criticism.
Professor Nakanishi Hiroshi of Kyoto University in Japan bluntly said that Japan's "maladjustment" to a powerful China has seriously damaged its own development; from former Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda, who intensified the Diaoyu Islands issue, to Shinzo Abe, who pursues "competitive diplomacy" with China, the Japanese Government has vividly turned Japan-China relations into a strange situation of "political cold and economic heat," but the result is that China's development is unstoppable, and Japan will never be able to "regulate" China according to its own wishes.
Today, the Kishida government is interested in pursuing "new capitalism" in response to domestic calls for economic growth. However, some analysts pointed out that the implementation of "new capitalism" measures not only requires the cooperation of corresponding material conditions, but also the coordination of major interests of all parties. After all, in the troika that drives the Japanese economy, the most important thing to count on is probably "foreign trade." In this regard, the Kishida government cannot ignore cooperation with China.
"'Political cold, economic and hot' does not conform to the overall situation of the development of Sino-Japanese relations and is not sustainable. Political and economic relations should develop simultaneously. If we only want to profit economically, but engage in political containment and confrontation, how can this kind of advantage be taken forever?! Lu Yaodong pointed out that China and Japan live side by side, are geographically close, have convenient exchanges, and are fully complementary in the economic and trade fields. The Japanese Government should not unilaterally undermine the political relations between the two countries and ultimately have a very negative impact on economic and trade relations and Sino-Japanese relations as a whole.
"On January 1, 2022, the RCEP Agreement will enter into force. At that time, China and Japan will trade under the framework of regional free trade agreements for the first time, tariffs are expected to be lowered, and trade barriers will be broken, which will further promote the increase in trade volume between China and Japan. Zhou Yongsheng believes that the prospects of Sino-Japanese economic and trade relations are worth looking forward to. However, if the Japanese government regards China as a goal of strengthening its military strength, resulting in political distrust and mutual defense between the two countries, then it will face difficulties in promoting economic and trade cooperation.
Recently, Kishida Fumio said in an interview with the media that he intends to amend the Constitution during his tenure as president of the Liberal Democratic Party. He also said that when revising the National Security Strategy, it is planned to include the development of the Japanese Self-Defense Force's pre-strike capability against potential enemy missile bases.
In this regard, the spokesman of the Chinese Ministry of National Defense responded that the Japanese side used the hype to hype the so-called "external threat" to seek its own military expansion, which violated Japan's commitment to "exclusively defend itself", which is very wrong and dangerous.
"Whether the Japanese government plays up the 'China threat theory' or supports countries outside the region to engage in military alliances and create incidents in East Asia, it is not conducive to the development of Sino-Japanese relations and regional peace and stability." The Japanese Government should scrupulously abide by the spirit of the four Political Documents between China and Japan and safeguard the hard-won overall situation of Sino-Japanese relations, and should not vainly try to maintain the situation of 'political coldness and economic heat' and go all the way to the dark on the wrong road. Lu Yaodong said.